Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #35) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-365) | Evil Geniuses (+280)

Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (-115) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-105)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-175)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021 - Group A.
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: Xyp9x 1.07 | dupreeh 1.06 | Magisk 1.02 | Bubzkji 0.97 | Lucky 0.97
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.06 | SPELLAN 0.97 | MICHU 0.96 | CeRq 0.93 | daps 0.79

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Both rosters have made multiple changes since their last meeting in March 2021 at ESL Pro League Season 13, so that result is pretty irrelevant here.

Map Projections:

Evil Geniuses removes Ancient

Astralis removes Mirage

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

Astralis picks Nuke

Evil Geniuses removes Vertigo 

Astralis removes Overpass

Dust2 is left over

Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 77.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): Lucky (4 maps) +14 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Xyp9x (4 maps) +6 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | dupreeh +14 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Bubzkji +5 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | Magisk +2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 72.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): dupreeh +18 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Lucky (2 maps) +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Magisk -10 K/D Diff, 0.94 Rating

Astralis - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 75.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Astralis - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): Xyp9x (4 maps) +17 K/D Diff, 1.16 Ratin | Magisk +12 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 70.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): oBo +1 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating

Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 0-5 W/L record, 10.0% pistol round win percent, 63.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 18.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): N/A

Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): 0-3 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 77.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 11.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): CeRq +10 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.

With gla1ve on paternity leave, Xyp9x Is back into the Astralis lineup and Magisk has taken over as the IGL. We saw Magisk as the IGL in a similar situation back in May 2020, and this has been the plan for Astralis for months now, so this news does not concern me in terms of their chances in this match-up. Lucky has only played one event for Astralis since joining the team, but he certainly showed talent with the AWP at ESL Pro League Season 14, as he finished with a positive K/D ratio and a 1.00 Rating despite his team struggling. On the other side, Evil Geniuses are once again without their IGL, stanislaw, as well as Brehze, since both of them needed a mental health break. This means that their coach, daps, will play once again, and they also added SPELLAN who is a former IGL that most recently played for MAD Lions. So, there is a lot going on here to unpack, but Evil Geniuses went from bad to worse with their changes, while Astralis’ plan seems much stronger by comparison. 

The map pool isn’t set in stone, but we can expect to see Ancient & Mirage banned right off the bat. Inferno has been Evil Geniuses’ favorite map recently, but they haven’t really found success on any map, so they could look to switch things up possibly. Astralis might go for a map like Dust2, but I think that Nuke makes a lot of sense here considering it was the most played map for Astralis back when Magisk was IGL in 2020 (besides Train, which is no longer in the map pool). Also, EG have had some tape on that map recently that Astralis can study, which makes the pick even more likely. Evil Geniuses have some talent on their roster, but they are still an absolute mess right now, and I trust the Danes to take care of business here on any map that is played.

Favorite Draftkings Play: magisk ($7,000)

Magisk is tasked with IGLing, which could impact his fragging, but he had a 1.05 K/D ratio with a 1.09 Rating when gla1ve was on a break in 2020. Draftkings pricing for this slate seems to be heavily tied to the player’s rating in the past three months, which basically gives us a huge discount on magisk at only $7,000. He is often the top fragger for Astralis despite a drop in his stats in recent months, and the ‘burden’ of being IGL could be seen as a positive in some ways, like if he is more motivated to play or if he is more in tune with what his opponent wants to do. I think that dupreeh and Lucky also look like excellent plays that are perhaps underpriced based on recent form. Xyp9x will have something to prove after getting benched, but his $9,000 price tag seems way too high, though this is a good spot for him so I wouldn't completely fade him. Bubzkji looks like a fine value play, but I think Lucky has more upside, so I’d rather find the extra $800 to spend up for the young AWPer if I can. I am not targeting Evil Geniuses in this tough match-up, but oBo would be the clear favorite on that side, while MICHU and CeRq are cheap enough to maybe consider as well. 

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

dupreeh ($8,200) | Lucky ($6,600) | Bubzkji ($5,800) | Xyp9x ($9,000) 

 

Vitality (World rank: #5) vs. Liquid (World rank: #11) - 2:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-160) | Liquid (+130)

Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+175) | Liquid +1.5 (-215)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021 - Group A.
  • Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | misutaaa 1.07 | shox 1.04 | apEX 0.97 | Kyojin 0.96
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.13 | EliGE 1.08 | Grim 1.05 | FalleN 1.00 | Stewie2K 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The last time these teams met was in February at IEM Katowice 2021, but Vitality still had RpK in the lineup instead of Kyojin, and they were also using Nivera as part of a six man roster. Liquid did win that series 2-1 (16-19 Nuke / 16-10 Vertigo / 16-12 Mirage) and EliGE led the way with 80 kills and a 1.39 Rating across three maps.

Map Projections:

Liquid removes Vertigo

Vitality removes Ancient

Liquid picks Dust2

Vitality picks Overpass

Liquid removes Nuke

Vitality removes Inferno

Mirage is left over

Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 68.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Vitality - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +24 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | shox +8 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | misutaaa +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (8 maps): 7-1 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 79.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 38.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (8 maps): ZywOo +56 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | misutaaa +35 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | shox +27 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Kyojin +3 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating

Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): ZywOo +30 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating

Liquid - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 75.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Liquid - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): FalleN +10 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | EliGE +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

Liquid - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 3-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Liquid - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): NAF +15 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Grim +17 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Stewie2K +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

Liquid - Key stats on Mirage past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 12.5% pistol round win percent, 72.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Liquid - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (4 maps): N/A

Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-1.

This event might not be the most important one on the calendar for these teams, but both of them are looking to establish their current roster amongst the top of the world. Liquid have been in excellent form recently, and they were a 1v5 away from beating Heroic and going on to face NAVI in the semi-finals of ESL Pro League Season 14. The only problem for them is that Vitality are back to looking like an elite team again. Vitality were one map away from spoiling NAVI’s Grand Slam, and their map pool is very solid at the moment. 

Both of these teams typically ban Ancient, so we cannot be certain of how the initial bans will go, but I think that Liquid may decide to ban away a weak map for them and a strong map for Vitality instead, and Vertigo would fit that description. Inferno has been Liquid’s favorite map as of late, but Vitality have looked extremely solid on that map, and Liquid might decide to punish Vitality with a map like Dust2. That map used to be a core part of Vitality’s map pool, but they have not established any consistent success on Dust2 since RpK left the roster. Overpass is the most played map for Vitality in the past three months and they have a 7-1 W/L record on the map including a recent 16-7 win against NAVI in that Grand Final match-up. I think they will likely pick Overpass here, despite Liquid looking pretty good on the map as well. Inferno could end up as the decider if Liquid float it through, but I think that Mirage makes more sense from Vitality’s perspective in that scenario, as they would certainly be favorites on that map. Overall, these teams like some of the same maps, but I believe that Vitality’s map pool is just too strong for Liquid to overcome in a best-of-three. I think that Liquid can maybe beat the French on Dust2, but Overpass, Mirage, Vertigo, Nuke and even Inferno would all be really difficult for them. 

Favorite Draftkings Play: ZywOo ($8,800)

Don’t overthink it. ZywOo is at a fair price and there is enough value on this slate to put him at captain, so that would be my favorite option. He just finished as the second highest rated player at ESL Pro League Season 14 with a 1.31 Rating across 24 maps played, only finishing behind s1mple. At this rate, he will likely finish as the HLTV number two overall player of 2021, which is perhaps even slightly disappointing for him considering he finished number one in 2019 & 2020. He will be the best player on the server, and his team can definitely win here, so he should be a lock for a lot of fantasy points. If there is one player to target on Vitality, it would be ZywOo, because he frequently hard carries with the AWP and his ‘bad days’ are so rare. Misutaaa would be my next favorite option though, while apEX looks like a great value play. Shox and Kyojin look fine, but neither one stands out very much to me in this match-up at these prices. I am prioritizing Vitality, but the series could be pretty competitive, so exposure to Liquid may make some sense. NAF and ELiGE would be the players to target on that side, with Grim is also a decent option based on his recent form.  

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

misutaaa ($8,000) | apEX ($6,400) | Kyojin ($5,400) | shox ($7,200) | NAF ($7,800) | EliGE ($7,400) 

 

*Favorite Stacks: Astralis, Vitality

*Favorite Captain Plays: ZywOo, dupreeh, misutaaa, Xyp9x

*Favorite Value Options: magisk, apEX, Lucky, Bubzkji, Kyojin