G2 (World rank: #5) vs. Lynn Vision (World rank: #117) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: G2 (-6400) | Lynn Vision (+2375)

Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (-625) | Lynn Vision +1.5 (+445)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+475) | Under 2.5 (-680)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Round of 16 of BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2021.
  • G2 - stats past three months: NiKo 1.25 | huNter- 1.08 | AmaNEk 0.98 | nexa 0.97 | JaCkz 0.92
  • Lynn Vision - stats past three months: z4kr 1.15 | B1NGO 1.05 | Westmelon 1.04 | Starry 0.97 | expro 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Lynn Vision removes Mirage

G2 removes Overpass

Lynn Vision picks Dust2

G2 picks Inferno

Lynn Vision removes Vertigo

G2 removes Ancient

Nuke is left over.

G2 - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 1-5 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 67.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

G2 - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): NiKo +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate

G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): NiKo +20 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | huNter- +29 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | AmaNEk -7 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating

G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate

G2 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): NiKo +12 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | huNter- +15 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | JaCkz +3 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | nexa +9 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | AmaNEk +2 K/D Diff, 0.98 Rating

Lynn Vision - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 76.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Lynn Vision - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): B1NGO +21 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Westmelon -10 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | expro +2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | z4kr -8 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating

Lynn Vision - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 1-3 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 62.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Lynn Vision - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): z4kr +13 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Westmelon +5 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | B1NGO -5 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

Lynn Vision - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 71.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate

Lynn Vision - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): B1NGO +15 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | z4kr +13 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | expro -3 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-0. 

G2’s implied odds of winning are over 98% here, so I won’t waste too much time breaking this one down. Lynn Vision are only playing in this event because ViCi withdrew as they were unable to travel to Europe. The Chinese team is bootcamping in Europe for this tournament with this event likely as their highest priority, meanwhile G2 have other events that are more important to them, like the upcoming major. Still, there is no reason to think that Lynn Vision will be able to hang with a team of G2’s caliber. We just saw Lynn Vision face European competition at an IEM Winter qualifier on Sunday, and they got rolled 6-16 in a best-of-one on Overpass by Galaxy Racer, which is a team that could be described as decent tier two competition at best.

The maps should be straight forward, with Lynn Vision removing Mirage and G2 removing Overpass to start. Lynn Vision will likely stick with their most played map as their pick, which would be Dust2, while G2 may consider one of their strongest maps, Inferno, though this is such a one-sided match-up that G2 could even look to ‘experiment’ with something else. Typically, an aim-heavy map like Dust2 would be a tall task for an underdog team like Lynn Vision going up against elite aimers, including one of the best riflers in the world, NiKo, but the recent update to the map adds an x-factor possibly in their favor, plus G2 have lost six of their last seven on Dust2. Lynn Vision should stick with this pick, but I could also see Ancient as an option for them. Nuke would be the most likely decider map in this scenario. 

On Draftkings, three stacking G2 makes a ton of sense given the easy match-up for them, and NiKo looks excellent here. His price tag is a bit steep, but I would definitely prioritize him  if you can find the salary. HuNter- has also been heating up lately, and his expensive price tag also seems worth it since G2 should dominate. I could see AmaNEk feasting in this spot with the AWP, but he is priced up to $9,000 so he is not necessarily as much of a lock as I would have imagined coming into this slate. JaCkz & nexa look like great value options with nexa being my preferred play, but jaCkz does have a huge ceiling here as an entry fragger. I’d recommend completely staying away from Lynn Vision on this slate. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

NiKo ($10,600) | huNter- ($9,600) | nexa ($7,400) | AmaNEk ($9,000) | jaCkz ($6,400) 

 

OG (World rank: #10) vs. paiN (World rank: #29) - 9:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: OG (-270) | paiN (+215)

Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (+115) | paiN +1.5 (-115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Round of 16 of BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2021.
  • OG - stats past three months: mantuu 1.14 | flameZ 1.14 | valde 1.03 | Aleksib 1.01 | niko 0.99
  • paiN - stats past three months: saffee 1.24 | biguzera 1.12 | hardzao 1.09 | NEKIZ 1.06 | PKL 1.00

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

paiN removes Mirage

OG removes Vertigo

paiN picks Nuke

OG picks Inferno

paiN removes Dust2

OG removes Ancient

Overpass is left over.

OG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 70.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate

OG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): mantuu +31 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | flameZ -7 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 7-0 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 81.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate

OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): flameZ +40 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | mantuu +42 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | valde +22 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | niko -7 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Aleksib -7 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

OG - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 70.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate

OG - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): Aleksib +4 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | mantuu 0 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating

paiN - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 11-2 W/L record, 57.7% pistol round win percent, 80.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate

paiN - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): saffee +104 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | NEKIZ +60 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | biguzera +37 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | hardzao +25 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | PKL -15 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

paiN - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 2-6 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 64.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate

paiN - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): saffee +10 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | hardzao +17 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

paiN - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 5-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate

paiN - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): saffee +57 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | biguzera +16 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | hardzao +32 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | PKL +4 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | NEKIZ -12 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating

Prediction/Narrative: paiN wins 2-1.

One of these teams qualified for the major, and it wasn’t OG. PaiN recently finished fourth at IEM Fall North America, which earned them ‘Challenger Status’ at the major, while OG fell just short of earning a spot after a disappointing 11th place finish at IEM Fall Europe. You could spin one of two narratives: 1) paiN are in good form at the moment while OG are in mediocre form, and this could be a potential upset, or 2) OG will want to bounce back and will be the more motivated team to earn a spot at the BLAST Premier Fall Final, since paiN are surely more focused on the major at the moment, which could also mean that the Brazilians might not want to go deep into their playbook for this series. I tend to lean towards the first narrative since I believe in the ability of this paiN roster, but I still wanted to throw both potential narratives out there. 

The map pool should look pretty decent for the underdogs. They are really strong on Nuke & Ancient, which happen to be two unreliable maps for OG. We did just see OG defeat Heroic on Nuke, but the stakes for that match were virtually nonexistent, and OG had lost six out of seven on Nuke prior to that. As for Ancient, OG have only played that map twice since it was added to the competitive map pool, and they have lost on both occasions. OG will likely have to face paiN on at least one of those maps since they’ll probably use their ban on Vertigo, which means that paiN should have decent odds on their own map pick. PaiN typically ban Mirage, which would leave open Inferno for OG, where they have won seven in a row and 10 of their last 11. Overpass makes sense as a decider here, and I could certainly see the decider map coming into play with both teams having such a strong map pick. 

I’m predicting paiN to pull the upset here in a 2-1 fashion, which may seem like a stretch given the odds, but we saw plenty of massive upsets happen at the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown, and this match-up feels like it could be close at the very least given the strength of paiN’s map pool. I don’t think that a three stack from either side makes much sense on Draftkings since this could be back-and-forth with players on both sides performing well. Saffee is my favorite play from this series at only $7,200 on DK. Saffee has been extremely consistent with the AWP, and if paiN are able to make this a tight series, then they will be relying primarily on him to carry. He has averaged an impressive 0.81 kills per round across 57 maps played in the past three months, and which makes him my favorite option given his salary. I don’t feel nearly as confident in any of his teammates though, so they would mostly be punt plays besides maybe biguzera, or even NEKIZ, who seems just a bit too cheap given his recent form. On OG, I still really like flameZ & mantuu given the projected maps. I am also still interested in Aleksib’s upside in this new ‘grenade drop’ meta as we recently saw his teammates dropping HE grenades for him to throw against Sprout, which directly led to more assists, and possibly led to more kills as his opponents were softened up for many of his fights. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

saffee ($7,200) | flameZ ($8,600) | mantuu ($9,400) | biguzera ($6,200) | Aleksib ($6,800) | NEKIZ ($5,200)

 

*Preferred Stacks: G2, saffee/flameZ

*Favorite Spend-ups: NiKo, flameZ, huNter-, mantuu, AmaNEk 

*Top Value Options: saffee, nexa, jaCkz, biguzera, Aleksib, NEKIZ