Virtus.pro (World rank: #9) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #14) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (-215) | Movistar Riders (+170)
Map Handicap: Virtus.pro -1.5 (+145) | Movistar Riders +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Round of 16 of BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2021.
- Virtus.pro - stats past three months: Jame 1.20 | YEKINDAR 1.17 | buster 1.03 | Qikert 1.01 | SANJI 0.90
- Movistar Riders - stats past three months: SunPayus 1.17 | mopoz 1.10 | alex 1.09 | DeathZz 1.02 | dav1g 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Virtus.pro (AKA the former AVANGAR roster) did beat Movistar Riders 16-7 on Nuke way back in 2019, but only seven of these ten players were on the server, so I am not putting any weight into that result.
Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-1.
Back in August, Movistar Riders made some major changes to their lineup when they moved to an all-Spanish roster with the addition of SunPayus, DeathZz and Dav1g after benching smooya & steel and releasing Shokz. The trio of SunPayus, DeathZz and Dav1g played on Caronte in the beginning of 2021, then the organization collapsed and didn’t pay them a single penny. From there, they played without financial incentive on Iberian Family. They continued to persevere before finally getting signed to Movistar Riders, and now they are finding great success alongside mopoz & alex. The Spanish roster just qualified for the major after a surprise fifth place finish at IEM Fall Europe, and they continue to look better as time goes on. Meanwhile, Virtus.pro have been together since they signed YEKINDAR back in May 2020, and then parted ways with AdreN just a few months later. VP managed to qualify for the major with their fourth place finish at IEM Fall CIS, though they have not looked as dominant as they did earlier in the year when they were ranked third overall in the world.
We can expect to see VP ban Nuke while Movistar Riders should remove Dust2. VP have a win rate above 50% on two maps besides Dust2 in the past three months, which would be Vertigo & Overpass. I would expect them to pick Overpass here, especially since Vertigo has been Movistar Riders most played map with this roster. Movistar Riders should pick Vertigo themselves, and they won’t be worried about VP’s win rate on that map considering VP just lost 1-16 against Entropiq on Vertigo, and VP’s 4v5 conversion rate on the map is only 23.1% in the past three months. Both teams like Inferno, so I could see that map as a ‘handshake’ decider map between them. The map pool should be pretty even here overall.
I expect this series going to three maps regardless of who wins, and I have Movistar Riders pulling the upset based on recent form. Virtus.pro can beat anybody on their best days, but they can lose to anybody on their worst days, and their inconsistent tendencies do not give me confidence in them as a favorite. On Draftkings, the two AWPers, Jame & SunPayus, look like the clear best option from their respective side. I really like DeathZz here at his price, and I think he could end up as one of the top point-per-dollar plays. I like the idea of getting exposure to both sides here since I think that this series will go the distance.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
SunPayus ($7,800) | Jame ($9,600) | DeathZz ($5,000) | mopoz ($6,800) | YEKINDAR ($8,600) | alex ($6,000) | qikert ($6,400)
Liquid (World rank: #13) vs. 9z (World rank: #62) - 12:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-930) | 9z (+605)
Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (-215) | 9z +1.5 (+175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+215) | Under 2.5 (-270)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Round of 16 of BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2021.
- Liquid - stats past three months: EliGE 1.21 | NAF 1.18 | Stewie2K 1.06 | FalleN 1.05 | Grim 1.05
- 9z - stats past three months: try 1.33 | max 1.21 | dgt 1.19 | BIT 1.04 | rox 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-0.
If you think the odds for 9z are steep, then you should have seen their odds against Vitality back at the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2021, when they upset the French powerhouse as a massive underdog. The scrappy team from South America proved themselves with max performing well as a rifler, while try stole the show with the AWP as he had 72 Kills and a 1.57 Rating across three maps, compared to only 46 Kills and a 0.83 Rating for ZywOo. For that reason, the ‘upset narrative’ will be floated around tomorrow, but Liquid are heavy favorites for a reason, and this should still be a dominant performance from them.
Liquid will likely continue to ban Ancient, which leaves open Nuke as the map pick for 9z. In the past three months, 9z have an impressive 22-2 W/L record on Nuke with an 81% 5v4 conversion rate and 37% 4v5 conversion rate. That map should give the underdogs their best chance of winning, especially considering Nuke has been Liquid’s worst map in the past three months with only a 1-5 W/L record. We will likely see 9z ban Vertigo, and Liquid should feel comfortable picking into a few maps here, but Inferno probably makes the most sense since that has been their most played map in the past three months.
I think that Liquid will show up for this match-up and that they will take 9z seriously enough to sweep them. The only map that could be an issue for the team ranked thirteenth in the world would be Nuke, but I still give such an edge to Liquid in terms of talent, and I think that they can beat 9z on any map. On Draftkings, Grim is my favorite play at only $7,200. He’s been having a great year in terms of finding some consistency, and he can be an absolute turret on a lot of maps, particularly on A site of Nuke holding hut. EliGE and NAF look like excellent spend-up options, while FalleN looks like a good value play. Stewie2K seems to be priced a bit too expensive relative to his teammates. The only player on 9z that I would really consider is try.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Grim ($7,200) | EliGE ($10,200) | NAF ($9,200) | FalleN ($6,200) | try ($6,600) | Stewie2K ($8,200)
*Preferred Stacks: Liquid
*Favorite Spend-Up Plays: EliGE, SunPayus, NAF, Jame, Stewie2K
*Top Value Options: Grim, DeathZz, FalleN, mopoz, try