BIG (World rank: #13) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #19) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-130) | Entropiq (+105)

Round Handicap: BIG -2.5 (+105) | Entropiq +2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 1. 
  • BIG - stats past three months: tabseN 1.08 | syrsoN 1.04 | gade 0.95 | tiziaN 0.94 | k1to 0.93
  • Entropiq - stats past three months: El1an 1.13 | Krad 1.09 | Forester 1.08 | NickelBack 1.05 | Lack1 0.99

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. BIG did sweep 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-11 Vertigo) when the teams faced each other in June at Spring Sweet Spring 2, but gade had not yet replaced XANTARES. TabseN led the way with 49 kills and a 1.44 Rating in that series.

Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 16-10 on Nuke/Mirage.

From the outside looking in, BIG appear to be putting in as much preparation as anybody at the moment as gade continues to slot in nicely with their roster since signing at the end of July (he even has been learning German to improve team comms). The unofficial timer on the ‘honeymoon phase’ for gade is likely reaching the end soon though, and this event will be somewhat of a measuring stick for determining truly how solid this lineup is. They did fine at IEM Fall 2021 Europe, finishing in 10th place and securing enough RMR points to earn their spot at this event, and a win here against Entropiq would be crucial for setting the tone. Entropiq originally had a much easier match-up against paiN lined up, but Virtus.pro made a recent roster change that changed the tournament seeding, and now Entropiq are stuck with a more difficult match-up against the Germans.

Nuke makes sense as the map here, though we could very well see Mirage instead. We can expect BIG to continue to remove Ancient, and Inferno & Overpass make sense as other maps that they might remove, but Inferno is the permaban for Entropiq, so BIG don’t need to prioritize removing that map. Entropiq should also ban Dust2 as that has been BIG’s most played map for a long time, and Entropiq may also consider banning Vertigo where they have struggled. The map that ends up being played should favor BIG, though Entropiq have a solid map pool, in part due to the high volume of Counter-Strike that they play (66 maps in the past three months compared to 40 for BIG). Entropiq’s stats are good on paper, but we do need to consider that they generally face tier two competition, and we also haven’t seen their lineup on LAN yet.

I give BIG an edge on Nuke and Mirage, and I think they will take this series one way or another. In 2021, tabseN has been a top 10 rated player on LAN against top 30 opponents with a 1.10 Rating, and I expect him to continue that good form on Tuesday, which makes him my favorite play on Draftkings. SyrsoN has also looked good in those LAN matches and is not far behind with a 1.06 Rating this year against top 30 opponents, so I like him a lot as well. Every other play just feels really risky here on a four series slate, so I don’t have too much confidence elsewhere. K1to is interesting at such a cheap price, and El1an is almost always in consideration even in losses as he usually impresses with the AWP. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

tabseN ($8,600) | syrsoN ($7,600) | El1an ($8,400) | k1to ($5,200)

 

Movistar Riders (World rank: #15) vs. Renegades (World rank: #40) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Movistar Riders (-180) | Renegades (+150)

Round Handicap: Movistar Riders -3.5 (-105) | Renegades +3.5 (-120)

  • This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 1. 
  • Movistar Riders - stats past three months: SunPayus 1.18 | mopoz 1.11 | alex 1.09 | DeathZz 1.02 | dav1g 0.89
  • Renegades - stats past three months: INS 1.39 | aliStair 1.29 | malta 1.21 | Sico 1.18 | Hatz 1.18

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: Renegades win 16-14 on Inferno. 

Renegades play in the Oceanic region where the competition is pretty weak, hence the reason their lowest rated player has the same Rating as Movistar Riders’ highest rated player. Still, their dominance is not something to overlook, and it seems like they get no respect in the international scene. On LAN this year, Renegades swept MIBR & OG at the IEM Cologne play-ins, and they even stole a map from NAVI at the main tournament. On the other hand, Movistar Riders have been hot, but their #15 world ranking is a sign that it might be time to ‘sell high’ on the Spanish team. 

The map veto could determine a lot here, and if one of these teams ‘fumbles’ their vetoes then they could be handing over the victory to the other side. Movistar Riders should ban Dust2 to start, and they will likely remove Overpass and Mirage as well. Renegades typically ban Ancient which should continue here, and I expect them to take away Vertigo too since Movistar Riders have been treating that as a ‘home map’ lately, with Nuke as another possible ban for them since that is another one of Movistar Riders’ favorite maps. Thus, Inferno is a reasonable prediction here, and Movistar Riders have their highest win rate in the past three months on Inferno having won eight of their last 10. Still, that win rate is lower than that of Renegades, who are a perfect 5-0 on Inferno in the past three months. Earlier in the year, we saw Renegades beat NAVI & OG on Inferno, and I think they can easily pull the upset on Movistar on that map. Renegades have been dominating the Oceanic region on Inferno with an 87.1% 5v4 conversion rate and 52.0% 4v5 conversion rate. along with a 77.3% T side win rate in the past three months, which is still really impressive given the level of competition. 

This could be a tight map so a stack on either side might be risky, but I certainly like targeting Renegades on Draftkings more. INS seems underpriced at $7,800 for this match-up, and aliStair has to be in consideration as well since he has led his team on LAN this year with a 1.08 Rating across 10 maps played. The value plays on Renegades are not a priority for me here, but malta would be my favorite based on his 1.51 K/D ratio and 1.36 Rating on Inferno in the past three months, with aliStair as the only teammate ahead of him in those categories. SunPayus has been excellent with the AWP on Movistar Riders, but he seems too expensive in a coinflip match-up, and mopoz is typically someone to at least consider as he is often the aggressive playmaker for the Spanish side. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

INS ($7,800) | aliStair ($7,000) | malta ($6,200) | Hatz ($5,600) | SunPayus ($9,200) | mopoz ($8,200)

 

Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. TYLOO (World rank: #56) - 7:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-600) | TYLOO (+430)

Round Handicap: Heroic -6.5 (-105) | TYLOO +6.5 (-120)

  • This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 1. 
  • Heroic - stats past three months: refrezh 1.17 | stavn 1.11 | cadiaN 1.10 | TeSeS 1.07 | sjuush 1.05
  • TYLOO - stats past three months: Summer 1.23 | Attacker 1.20 | DANK1NG 1.18 | somebody 1.10 | SLOWLY 1.10

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 16-7 on Vertigo.

The last time that Heroic were a massive favorite to open a LAN tournament in a best-of-one, they ‘troll picked’ Dust2 instead of Vertigo, which was surprising to see since Dust2 has always been their permaban. They still handled Movistar Riders 16-10 in that match, but if you were backing them as a heavy favorite, then you probably were uneasy about seeing Dust2 as the map. Thus, we can’t be sure of the map for this match-up against TYLOO. Still, Heroic should have this one in the bag. Sure, the Danes still have the burden of the ongoing HUNDEN cheating scandal, but the players recently cleared themselves in a video, and hopefully they can eventually move past it so that it is not a distraction.

The most likely map here would be Vertigo, with Inferno, Overpass or even Mirage as other possibilities. We’d expect to see TYLOO remove Heroic’s favorite map, Nuke, and it would make sense for Heroic to remove Dust2 per usual, with Ancient as another likely ban for the Danes. Again, we can’t be certain here since Heroic did flip the script in a similar spot just a month ago. Overall, this should be a one-sided match where Heroic stomps TYLOO regardless of the map, and the odds clearly reflect that.

On Draftkings, the pricing appears to be directly correlated with the player’s performance in the past three months. This means that TeSeS is super underpriced at $7,200, and he pretty much looks like a lock here. If Vertigo does end up as the map, then that would be excellent for TeSeS as he leads his team with a 1.23 Rating on Vertigo in the past three months across five maps played. Using similar logic, cadiaN & sjuush also appear to be great value plays, and Vertigo would be great for sjuush as he leads his team with a 1.28 K/D ratio on that map in the past three months. Refrezh & stavn are a bit too expensive for me here all things considered, but both still have high ceilings and are still in play. I see absolutely no reason to play anyone from TYLOO on this slate.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

TeSeS ($7,200) | cadiaN ($8,000) | sjuush ($6,400) | refrezh ($10,200) | stavn ($9,600)

 

Mouseports (World rank: #16) vs. Sharks (World rank: #58) - 7:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: MOUZ (-485) | Sharks (+360)

Round Handicap: MOUZ -5.5 (-115) | Sharks +5.5 (-110)

  • This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 1. 
  • MOUZ - stats past three months: frozen 1.19 | ropz 1.15 | Bymas 1.11 | acoR 1.01 | dexter 0.98
  • Sharks - stats past three months: zevy 1.18 | Lucaozy 1.15 | pancc 1.09 | realziN 0.99 | jnt 0.97

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: MOUZ wins 16-12 on Nuke.

This should be an easy win for MOUZ in theory, but I do think that Sharks can at least keep things close. Mousesports reached #6 in the world back in June and have tumbling down the rankings since. The duo of ropz/frozen should be enough to at least carry this team through the Challengers Stage, but there are certainly questions about how far this team can go, and Sharks, who came in first place in the South American RMR standings, could be a bit of a surprising challenge, granted the South American region has been weak as of late. 

MOUZ have a well-rounded map pool with a win rate of at least 50% on five maps in the past three months (Vertigo, Mirage, Nuke, Dust2, and Inferno). They even switch their map ban around based on the match-up, rather than just having one permaban map. We can expect to see Overpass removed with neither team playing much of that map, and MOUZ may look to remove some of their own weaker maps like Ancient & Dust2, while Sharks may target Vertigo for similar reasons. Nuke has been the most played map for both of these teams in the past three months, and they may ‘handshake’ agree to play that map, though Mirage and Inferno could be other possibilities. Overall, MOUZ should not be too concerned with the map as they should have a solid advantage regardless.

I expect Sharks to win some rounds here, but MOUZ is still the clear target for me. Frozen has led his team on Nuke with a 1.19 Rating in the past three months, but ropz is not far behind at 1.16, plus ropz is also much cheaper on Draftkings so I prefer him slightly. Dexter seems like a reasonable value play at $6,200, while acoR is more of a high risk/high reward play. AcoR has struggled on Nuke, which is a reason to consider fading him, but he also seems to pop off against tier two teams such as Sharks, and we might not even see Nuke be played. He also faces a strong AWPing presence with zevy on the other side. Bymas has had some huge maps recently and his aim is world-class, but $8,000 seems a tad expensive for him given his inconsistencies. 

 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

ropz ($8,800) | frozen ($10,000) | Dexter ($6,200) | acoR ($7,000) | Bymas ($8,000) | zevy ($6,800)

 

Favorite Stacks: Heroic, MOUZ, BIG, Renegades

Favorite Spend-Ups: cadiaN, ropz, tabseN, frozen, INS, syrsoN

Favorite Value Plays: TeSeS, sjuush, aliStair, dexter, malta, acoR