00Nation (World rank: #132) vs. 777 (World rank: #103) - 6:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: 00Nation (-150) | 777 (+125) 

Map Handicap: 00Nation -1.5 (+180) | 777 +1.5 (-225)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Pinnacle Fall Series 3 Regionals - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
  • 00Nation - Rating at event: -kNgV 1.08 | leo_drk 1.03 | fer 1.01 | vsm 0.98 | trk 0.87
  • 00Nation - Rating past three months: -kNgV 1.07 | leo_drk 0.99 | vsm 0.97 | trk 0.93 | fer 0.89
  • 777 - Rating at event: H4RR3 1.13 | Ruyter 1.09 | mikki 1.06 | akez 1.05 | Marcelious 0.99
  • 777 - Rating past three months: H4RR3 1.10 | Marcelious 1.01 | Ruyter 0.98 | mikki 0.96 | akez 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in September, which was prior to 00Nation benching HEN1 & LUCAS1 and adding Fer, so the Brazilian roster has made a few changes since then, including trk becoming a full time starter rather than sixth man. 00Nation did win that series 2-1 (13-16 Ancient / 16-8 Dust2 / 16-8 Mirage), though HEN1 led the way with 67 kills and a 1.43 Rating.

Map Projections:

00Nation removes Overpass

777 removes Inferno

00Nation picks Dust2

777 picks Ancient

00Nation removes Nuke

777 removes Vertigo

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: 777 wins 2-1.

I’m really not sold on this current iteration of 00Nation as they have only won 4 out of 12 maps played together so far and their wins have not been convincing. They won their first series with this lineup on Wednesday against 4glory, and both maps went at least 28 rounds. HEN1 seems to be a big loss for 00Nation, and fer has had very little impact since joining with a 0.89 Rating across 12 maps played. 777 might not have the best Ancient in the world, but they play the map a lot and they have won the past two times, which brings their record as a unit to 8-9 on Ancient. 777 beat 00Nation on Ancient last time, and 00Nation have not played the map with this lineup yet, so I do favor 777 to win on that map, assuming 00Nation ban Overpass to start. 00Nation could perhaps beat 777 on Dust2 as they did last time considering they have a 2-1 W/L record on that map with their current roster, including a solid 33.3% 4v5 conversion rate. Still, I feel much more comfortable taking 777 to win the series based on the recent form that these teams have shown. I have 777 winning this in three maps, and I am a bit confused as to why 00Nation are even favorites on Thursday. 

H4RR3 looks like an excellent play at $7,800 considering he is the only member of his team with a Rating over one on Dust2 & Ancient in the past three months. I also really like Ruyter based on the form that he has shown at this event with a 1.09 Rating so far. Marcelious looks solid as well, while mikki and akez are punt plays on this slate. The only player that interests me on 00Nation would maybe be kNgV- but he seems too expensive at $9,200, so my focus is definitely 777. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

H4RR3 ($7,800) | Ruyter ($6,400) | Marcelious ($7,200) 

 

1WIN (World rank: #28) vs. Unique (World rank: #44) - 6:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: 1WIN (-225) | Unique (+180) 

Map Handicap: 1WIN -1.5 (+130) | Unique +1.5 (-160)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Pinnacle Fall Series 3 Regionals - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 2-1 record). Winning team advances to Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
  • 1WIN - Rating at event: glowiing 1.41 | TRAVIS 1.34 | deko 1.31 | Ravenlot 1.14 | Polt 0.91
  • 1WIN - Rating past three months: deko 1.25 | glowiing 1.15 | TRAVIS 1.13 | Polt 1.04 | Ravenlot 1.00
  • Unique - Rating at event: smiley 1.11 | icem4N 1.08 | dukefissura 1.04 | sorrow 1.04 | w1nt3r 1.03
  • Unique - Rating past three months: dukefissura 1.07 | smiley 1.06 | icem4N 1.02 | sorrow 0.98 | w1nt3r 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The core members did face off in June back when Unique was playing under the name ‘100 Ping Gods’, but both teams have made changes to their lineup since. 100PG won that series 2-1 (9-16 Mirage / 19-17 Dust2 / 16-10 Overpass), and deko led the way with 85 kills and a 1.46 Rating across three maps despite the losing effort.

Map Projections:

1WIN removes Inferno

Unique removes Nuke

1WIN picks Vertigo

Unique picks Overpass

1WIN removes Dust2

Unique removes Mirage

 Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: 1WIN wins 2-0. 

1WIN have been the highest rated team at Pinnacle Fall Series 3 Regionals so far with a 1.22 Rating across seven maps played. Beyond that, glowiing, TRAVIS & deko are all amongst the top five highest rated players at the event. 1WIN should also have a massive advantage in terms of the map pool considering the fact that Unique do not play a lot of Nuke or Vertigo. Nuke is 1WIN’s most played map with a 19-8 W/L record in the past three months, meanwhile Unique have only played it four times during that time span with a 2-2 W/L record. If Unique decide to ban Nuke, then 1WIN could pick Vertigo where they have a 14-5 W/L record in the past three months, compared to only three maps played for Unique, who have a 2-1 W/L record during that time. 1WIN have also been impressive on Mirage with a  16-9 W/L record, and they have their highest win rate on Dust2 with an 11-3 W/L record. The one map that Unique could maybe hope to win would be Overpass, but we just saw 1WIN beat Copenhagen Flames on that map earlier in the week, so it would not surprise me to see 1WIN steal away their opponent’s map pick. 1WIN looks too good at the moment to pick against them, and I think they can easily sweep here.

Deko leads his team on Vertigo & Overpass in the past three months with a 1.22 Rating on both maps, which should make him a strong spend-up option. TRAVIS is second on his team with a 1.18 Rating on Vertigo and a 1.16 Rating on Overpass, which makes him my next favorite option, especially since he is cheaper than glowiing on Draftkings. Glowiing should still be a great choice as the second highest rated player at the event. Ravenlot has been quiet lately, so I don’t mind buying low on him at $5,800 either, while Polt typically has limited upside. I am not looking to play anybody on Unique on this slate. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

deko ($9,400) | TRAVIS ($7,800) | glowiing ($8,600) | Ravenlot ($5,800) 

 

ECLOT (World rank: #83) vs. Marten (World rank: #133) - 9:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ECLOT (-120) | Marten (-105) 

Map Handicap: ECLOT -1.5 (+230) | Marten +1.5 (-290)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Pinnacle Fall Series 3 Regionals - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 2-1 record). Winning team advances to Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
  • ECLOT - Rating at event: capseN 1.32 | Valencio 1.27 | noobiq 1.26 | ZED 1.02 | K1-FiDa 1.02
  • ECLOT - Rating past three months: capseN 1.20 | Valencio 1.10 | noobiq 1.02 | ZED 1.00 | K1-FiDa 0.92
  • Marten - Rating at event: Maki 1.52 | Katalic 1.08 | HOLMES 0.93 | gi 0.93 | IDZUO 0.89
  • Marten - Rating past three months: Maki 1.08 | Katalic 1.08 | HOLMES 1.00 | gi 0.97 | IDZUO 0.88

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

ECLOT removes Nuke

Marten removes Overpass

ECLOT picks Mirage

Marten picks Inferno

ECLOT removes Dust2

Marten removes Vertigo

Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: ECLOT wins 2-1.

This should be an easy win on paper for ECLOT considering they have won 19 out of 32 maps played with this lineup and they have been rolling as the third highest team at the event with a 1.18 Rating across eight maps played. However, we can’t underestimate Marten, who have only played 14 maps together but have already made some noise. Maki is the highest rated player at the event with a 1.52 Rating across seven maps played, including an insane performance against Nexus on Tuesday with 143 kills across three maps. ECLOT have a 6-3 W/L record on Mirage with a 78.8% 5v4 conversion rate and 36.6% 4v5 conversion rate, and I would expect them to beat Marten on that map. Marten’s most played map is Inferno, so they might consider picking it here, but ECLOT have won four in a row on Inferno including wins over Enterprise & MIBR, and they have a dominant 78.4% 5v4 conversion rate and 36.9% 4v5 conversion rate on that map. I’m giving Marten a map here basically just to give them the benefit of the doubt of being a newer team, and because Maki has been playing out of his mind the past few days. Still, I definitely think that ECLOT should be favored here. 

CapseN leads his team on Mirage with a 1.24 Rating across nine maps played, and he looks like a great choice here. Mirage is also one of ZED’s best maps with a 1.14 Rating during that time, so he is certainly a value option to consider. Valencio leads his team with 0.82 kills per round on Inferno and is another player that I would look to target here. Inferno is also another strong map for ZED with a 1.09 Rating across seven maps played in the past three months, so I prefer him over noobiq on this slate. I think that Maki is hard to ignore with the way that he is playing, though ECLOT is certainly my priority for stacking. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

ZED ($6,000) | capseN ($8,800) | Valencio ($7,600) | Maki ($8,400) | noobiq ($6,800) 

 

AGF (World rank: #187) vs. Nexus (World rank: #86) - 9:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: AGF (-410) | Nexus (+310) 

Map Handicap: AGF -1.5 (-120) | Nexus +1.5 (-105)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+145) | Under 2.5 (-175)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Pinnacle Fall Series 3 Regionals - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 2-1 record). Winning team advances to Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
  • AGF - Rating at event: cajunb 1.26 | Kristou 1.26 | Nodios 1.19 | Buzz 1.16 | Cabbi 1.01
  • AGF - Rating past three months: Nodios 1.06 | Buzz 1.05 | Kristou 1.02 | cajun 1.01 | Cabbi 0.92
  • Nexus - Rating at event: XELLOW 1.13 | RENNE 1.05 | ragga 0.99 | BTN 0.98 | s0und N/A
  • Nexus - Rating past three months: XELLOW 1.16 | ragga 1.10 | s0und 1.08 | RENNE 1.06 | BTN 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

AGF removes Mirage

Nexus removes Overpass

AGF picks Vertigo

Nexus picks Dust2

AGF removes Ancient

Nexus removes Nuke

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: AGF wins 2-0.

Nexus are playing this series with a stand-in, s0und, who will play instead of lauNX. LauNX has a 1.07 Rating in the past three months, so the 16 year old talent will be missed, but s0und is certainly a capable replacement with a 1.08 Rating of his own in the past three months playing for allStars. Nexus lost 13 of 20 maps earlier in the year when s0und was playing for them, and expectations are low for them with a stand-in. AGF just signed Buzz earlier in November, but the cajunb-led team have already found success having won 6 out of 10 maps played, and they currently sit as the fourth highest rated team at this event with a 1.17 Rating. AGF outplayed 4glory on Vertigo on Tuesday with an 85.7% 5v4 conversion rate and 36.4% 4v5 conversion rate in their 16-9 victory, and I expect them to pick that here considering Nexus should ban AGF’s favorite map, Overpass. AGF should also ban Nexus’ favorite map, Mirage, so I expect Nexus to pick something simple with a stand-in, like Dust2, which has been one of their better maps in the past. AGF played well on Dust2 against GORILLAZ on Wednesday with BUZZ dropping a 30 bomb, including seven first kills, and Nexus should have difficulty getting past on AGF on that map, as well as any other map in the pool. I have this series as a quick sweep for AGF. 

Buzz led his team with a 1.50 Rating on Vertigo against 4glory, and a 1.73 Rating on Dust2 against GORILLAZ, and he looks like a fantastic play at $9,000. Cajunb leads his team with a 1.26 Rating at this event, and he looks like a really safe option here at $6,800. Nodios is the highest rated player on this team in the past three months, so I don’t mind paying up for him at $9,600, though that price tag does seem expensive. Kristou and Cabbi should be fine options, but neither one stands out in particular, while Nexus is a complete fade for me.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

Buzz ($9,000) | cajunb ($6,800) | Nodios ($9,600) | Kristou ($8,000) | Cabbi ($6,000)

 

*Preferred Stacks: 1WIN, AGF, ECLOT, 777

*Favorite Spend-Ups: deko, Buzz, TRAVIS, capseN, H4RR3, Nodios, Valencio, glowiing

*Favorite Value Plays: cajunb, ZED, Ruyter, Marcelious, Ravenlot