Gambit (World rank: #3) vs. Enterprise (World rank: #55) - 7:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-3500) | Enterprise (+1600)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-460) | Enterprise +1.5 (+340)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+375) | Under 2.5 (-510)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of V4 Future Sports Festival 2021.
- Gambit - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.61 | Hobbit 1.19 | interz 1.03 | Ax1Le 0.95 | nafany 0.83
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.32 | Hobbit 1.17 | Ax1Le 1.12 | nafany 1.04 | interz 0.96
- Enterprise - Rating at event: forsyy 1.06 | MATYS 1.01 | ADEJIS 0.99 | manguss 0.93 | The eLiVe 0.76
- Enterprise - Rating past three months: forsyy 1.17 | MATYS 1.03 | manguss 1.03 | The eLiVe 1.03 | ADEJIS 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Gambit removes Nuke
Enterprise removes Vertigo
Gambit picks Overpass
Enterprise picks Inferno
Gambit removes Ancient
Enterprise removes Dust2
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-0.
I’m not going to waste too much time talking about this match-up, because well… just look at the lopsided odds. This has actually been a weird event for Gambit so far. They lost their opening best-of-one 9-16 on Dust2 against Fiend, which sent them to the lower bracket, where they should have had an easy match-up against eSuba. However, eSuba took Gambit to overtime on Mirage, though Gambit did sweep the series, including winning their own map pick, Overpass, 16-2. Enterprise are a solid tier two team that I often bet on when they are underdogs, but they should get completely outclassed here, and I would be shocked to see Gambit drop a map.
These teams will likely ban each other’s favorite map, with Gambit removing Nuke and Enterprise banning Vertigo. Gambit’s next favorite map has recently been Overpass, and I expect them to pick it here despite Enterprise having a respectable 12-6 W/L record on that map in the past three months. Sh1ro has been cracked on Overpass with a 1.48 Rating, 1.94 K/D Ratio and 0.88 kills per round across eight maps played in the past three months, and he should continue to be an excellent DFS play. Inferno will likely be Enterprise’s map pick, and sh1ro leads his team with a 1.26 Rating on that map across six maps played in the past three months. Sh1ro is also the highest rated player at this event so far with a 1.61 Rating across three maps played, so if there is one play that I would spend up for, it would be sh1ro. A three stack from Gambit has to be the priority here, and all five members should be considered in play.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
sh1ro ($10,000) | Ax1Le ($8,400) | nafany ($7,400) | Hobbit ($9,400) | interz ($6,400)
Movistar Riders (World rank: #17) vs. Fiend (World rank: #18) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Movistar Riders (-120) | Fiend (-105)
Map Handicap: Movistar Riders -1.5 (+250) | Fiend +1.5 (-320)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-110)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of V4 Future Sports Festival 2021.
- Movistar Riders - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.37 | alex 1.31 | DeathZz 1.23 | mopoz 1.01 | dav1g 0.73
- Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.18 | mopoz 1.11 | alex 1.08 | DeathZz 1.03 | dav1g 0.89
- Fiend - Rating at event: h4rn 1.26 | REDSTAR 1.18 | bubble 1.08 | SHiPZ 1.01 | dream3r 0.88
- Fiend - Rating past three months: h4rn 1.13 | REDSTAR 1.11 | SHiPZ 1.09 | dream3r 1.09 | bubble 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. SunPayus, DeathZz, and dav1g did face Fiend back when they were on Iberian Family in June, but a lot has changed since then so I don’t put any weight into that result, especially with v1c7oR also not playing on Friday.
Map Projections:
Movistar Riders removes Dust2
Fiend removes Vertigo
Movistar Riders picks Nuke
Fiend picks Mirage
Movistar Riders removes Ancient
Fiend removes Overpass
Inferno is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-1.
The first thing to note here is the v1c7oR had surgery on his leg and was unable to travel to this event, so SHiPZ from SKADE is filling in. In terms of a stand-in, SHiPZ seems to be a great option for Fiend considering he has been the second highest rated player on SKADE in the past three months with a 1.09 Rating, only behind the main AWPer, dennyslaw. Fiend have won five out of nine maps played with SHiPZ in the lineup for this event (including the play-in), and they even had a win against number three ranked team Gambit. Thus, I am not necessarily concerned for Fiend with v1c7oR out. Still, Movistar Riders are the second highest rated team at V4 Future Sports Festival 2021 with a 1.13 Rating across three maps played, and SunPayus is the second highest rated player at the event with a 1.37 Rating during that time, and I give the Spanish the edge over the Bulgarians regardless of the stand-in situation.
Movistar Riders typically ban Dust2, which means that Fiend would be able to pick their most played map, Mirage, where they have an 18-10 W/L record in the past three months. If Fiend are going to win a map, then it would be Mirage, especially considering Movistar have a weak 3-9 W/L record on that map in the past three months. The rest of the map pool should be well in the favor of Movistar Riders though, particularly Nuke where they have a 15-4 W/L record in the past three months compared to a 9-14 W/L record for Fiend. I have this as a comfortable 2-1 win for Movistar Riders, especially if Inferno ends up as the decider.
Alex is the only member of Movistar Riders with a Rating above one on Mirage in the past three months, plus he has been terrific at this event with a 1.31 Rating to this point, which makes him a player to target on this slate. SunPayus leads his team on Nuke with a 1.23 Rating, and he is the second highest rated player at this event, so he certainly seems like an excellent spend-up option here. Movistar Riders are my preferred team to stack, but REDSTAR would be my favorite play on Fiend based on pricing.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
alex ($7,000) | SunPayus ($8,600) | mopoz ($7,800) | REDSTAR ($7,200) | DeathZz ($5,800) | dream3r ($6,000) | h4rn ($8,200)