Heroic (World rank: #4) vs. FaZe (World rank: #8) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-205) | FaZe (+170)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+145) | FaZe +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket quarter-final of BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021.
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.11 | refrezh 1.07 | cadiaN 1.06 | sjuush 1.04 | TeSeS 1.01
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.13 | broky 1.13 | rain 1.09 | olofmeister 0.96 | karrigan 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in July on LAN (though there was no crowd) at IEM Cologne and FaZe won 2-1 (16-10 Mirage / 11-16 Nuke / 16-10 Ancient). Broky topped the leaderboards with 68 kills and a 1.32 Rating across three maps.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
FaZe removes Vertigo
Heroic picks Nuke
FaZe picks Mirage
Heroic removes Ancient
FaZe removes Overpass
Inferno is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (14 maps): 8-6 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 74.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (14 maps): stavn +29 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | refrezh +25 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | cadiaN +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | sjuush +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): sjuush +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | stavn +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | cadiaN +14 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 77.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): TeSeS -1 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | refrezh +15 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | stavn -1 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | cadiaN +8 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 0-4 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 82.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 15.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): rain -9 K/D Diff, 0.98 Rating | broky +2 K/D Diff, 0.96 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 9-5 W/L record, 53.6% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): Twistzz +62 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | broky +52 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | rain 0 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | olofmeister -5 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 54.5% pistol round win percent, 78.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): olofmeister +33 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | broky +31 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | rain -3 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Twistzz 0 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
Heroic made it to the semi-finals of PGL Major Stockholm, which proved to the world that they are not just ‘onliners’. Not only did they perform well at the biggest LAN event of the year, but they also made the same bold plays that their critics have been saying would only work online and not on LAN in front of a crowd. Thus, I have plenty of confidence in them at this LAN event, especially considering it takes place in Copenhagen, Denmark. Unfortunately, there won’t be a crowd for the first two days of this tournament, however I still feel as though Heroic have an advantage playing in their home country even without the crowd. As for FaZe, they seemingly had a playoff spot at the Major locked up prior to their collapse against Virtus.pro. FaZe had a 13-8 lead on CT Ancient and were only a few rounds away from sweeping VP, but VP pulled the reverse sweep and killed FaZe’s playoff hopes. Heroic seem to be set for the future with their five man Danish roster full of firepower, while I could easily see FaZe adjusting their roster if they continue to fail to meet expectations.
Nuke should be an easy win for Heroic on paper, assuming that is their map pick. The Danes have won six of their last seven on that map including their recent win over G2, meanwhile FaZe are 0-4 on Nuke in the past three months. I expect to see FaZe go for Mirage, which is a map that they should have an edge on in theory, but I could see that one going either way. VP picked that map against Heroic at the quarter-finals of the PGL Major Stockholm playoffs, and Heroic stole it from them 16-10. Heroic also had a decent showing against G2 on Mirage prior to nexa popping off on the CT side. I’d certainly give Heroic an edge on Inferno if that is in fact the decider map, and I think the Danes should be able to win this series either way.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
stavn ($9,200) | TeSeS ($5,200) | sjuush ($6,400) | refrezh ($8,400) | cadiaN ($7,600) | broky ($7,200)
TeSeS’ form has not been great in recent months, but his Draftkings price tag has followed suit, and $5,200 just seems way too low of a price for him especially considering he had 28 kills and a 1.69 Rating on Nuke last time against FaZe.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. BIG (World rank: #14) - 12:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-780) | BIG (+530)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-180) | BIG +1.5 (+150)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+190) | Under 2.5 (-235)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket quarter-final of BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021.
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.33 | electronic 1.15 | b1t 1.11 | Perfecto 1.06 | Boombl4 0.97
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.10 | syrsoN 1.05 | gade 0.97 | k1to 0.96 | tiziaN 0.92
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in August at ESL Pro League Season 14 and BIG managed to pull off a surprise sweep 2-0 (16-11 Dust2 / 16-7 Mirage). S1mple had the most kills on the server with 43, while tabseN was the highest rated with a 1.37 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
NAVI removes Vertigo
BIG removes Ancient
NAVI picks Nuke
BIG picks Dust2
NAVI removes Overpass
BIG removes Inferno
Mirage is left over
NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past three months (12 maps): 12-0 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (12 maps): s1mple +121 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | electronic +34 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | b1t +38 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Perfecto +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 73.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): Perfecto +36 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | s1mple +20 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | electronic +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 65.0% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (10 maps): s1mple +79 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | electronic +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Perfecto +15 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (12 maps): 5-7 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 72.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (12 maps): tabseN 0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | syrsoN +17 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (15 maps): 11-4 W/L record, 46.7% pistol round win percent, 78.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (15 maps): tabseN +31 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | syrsoN +23 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | gade +28 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | tiziaN +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | k1to -6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 75.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): tabseN +22 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | syrsoN +59 K/D Diff 1.17 Rating | k1to +16 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.
You might be surprised to see that BIG swept NAVI last time these rosters met, but let’s not overreact to that result. That was the only series that NAVI lost at ESL Pro League Season 14, and that result seemed to have more to do with NAVI having a rare off day rather than BIG outplaying them. With that being said, BIG are a cheeky team that always bring out new strategies, like last time on Mirage against NAVI where they played an aggressive CT side that could only be described as ‘in your face’. NAVI have been the best team in the world for the months prior to PGL Major Stockholm, and they went on to win the Major without dropping a single map, going 10-0 across 10 maps played. I expect NAVI to continue their dominance here, and the odds agree with (-780) moneyline odds for NAVI.
NAVI are clearly the best Nuke team in the world, and they have now won 18 in a row on that map. If Nuke ends up as their map pick, then it is as close to a free win as we can get at this level. Dust2 has historically been BIG’s favorite map, and they beat NAVI on it last time, so I see no reason why they would not stick with it here. Vitality tried to pick Dust2 against NAVI at the Major, and NAVI beat the French 16-11. Plus, Dust2 used to be one of NAVI’s most played maps, so I really don’t give BIG much of a chance on that map either, though their 11-4 W/L record in the past three months is nothing to scoff at.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
s1mple ($9,800) | Perfecto ($7,000) | electronic ($9,000) | b1t ($8,600)
S1mple is clearly the best player in the world in 2021, and you can almost never go wrong rostering him. My second favorite option would be Perfecto based on his excellent form on Dust2. Perfecto leads his team with a 1.26 Rating across five maps played on Dust2 in the past three months, which should make him a great value option at only $7,000.
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #6) vs. Astralis (World rank: #20) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-190) | Astralis (+155)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+150) | Astralis +1.5 (-185)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket quarter-final of BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021.
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.15 | REZ 1.09 | hampus 1.09 | Plopski 0.98 | es3tag 0.91
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.10 | gla1ve 1.08 | Lucky 0.97 | Xyp9x 0.94 | k0nfig N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. NiP bullied Astralis 16-1 in a best-of-one on Inferno at PGL Major Stockholm, but both teams have made recent roster changes, so that result seems fairly irrelevant.
Map Projections:
NiP removes Vertigo
Astralis removes Mirage
NiP picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
NiP removes Dust2
Astralis removes Ancient
Overpass is left over
*** This is es3tag’s debut with NiP, so the stats below are from when LNZ was in the lineup.
NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (15 maps): 10-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (15 maps): device +65 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | hampus +33 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | REZ +14 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Plopski +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 76.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): device +39 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | hampus -5 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | REZ +25 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 5-1 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 77.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): REZ +28 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | device +25 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | es3tag (5 maps with Complexity) +8 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | hampus +2 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Plopski 0 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
*** This is blameF & k0nfig’s debut with Astralis, so the stats below are from when Bubzkji, Magisk & dupreeh were in the lineup.
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 20.0% pistol round win percent, 72.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): Lucky +15 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Xyp9x -1 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 9-4 W/L record, 46.2% pistol round win percent, 77.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): gla1ve (3 maps) +13 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | Lucky +7 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): Xyp9x +7 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Lucky +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Last but not least, we have the most interesting match-up of the day. Astralis made major changes to their roster bringing in a ton of firepower with blameF & k0nfig. BlameF was the number six player in the world for 2020, and now he doesn'tt have to focus on being IGL, which could really put him in a position to frag. K0nfig had wrist surgery earlier in the year, so we haven’t seen him play in a few months, but he was having an elite year prior to that with a 1.13 Rating across 116 maps played in 2021. Thus, I think that Astralis have a ton of potential, but they will need time to adjust to these changes. They do have the benefit of this event taking place in Denmark, though the crowd will not be there until Friday. NiP also made a recent lineup change with es3tag replacing LNZ. Es3tag is a more experienced player and he will bring more to the table in the near future than a young player like LNZ. I think NiP improved their roster with this move, and I think they will be able to adjust to their change a lot quicker than Astralis.
I’m mostly giving NiP the edge here based on the projected maps. Astralis should pick Nuke, where they have looked impressive with a 9-4 W/L record. Nuke is not one of NiP’s stronger maps, so I do think that the Danes are capable of winning that map. The rest of the maps should be in favor of NiP though. The Ninjas just beat Astralis 16-1 on Inferno at the end of October, and they surely have a lot of confidence on that map despite both rosters changing. I also think that NiP should be a lot stronger on Overpass & Ancient, so if either of those maps end up in the pool then I’d have to give them an edge. I have this series as 2-1 NiP, but who knows what we are going to see unfold with all of the moving parts in this match-up.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
es3tag ($5,400) | device ($9,400) | REZ ($7,800) | Lucky ($5,600) | k0nfig ($7,400) | hampus ($8,800) | blameF ($8,000)
I really like taking a shot on es3tag at $5,400. This is the ultimate es3tag revenge spot. He played for Astralis for a few months in 2020, and he frequently popped off on Nuke. His most recent team was Complexity alongside blameF, so there are a lot of narratives here, and his price on Draftkings is cheap in this spot