Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #14) vs. BLINK (World rank: #28) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Copenhagen Flames (-165) | BLINK (+135)
Map Handicap: Copenhagen Flames -1.5 (+175) | BLINK +1.5 (-215)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating at event: N/A
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.18 | nicoodoz 1.09 | jabbi 1.06 | Zyphon 1.03 | HooXi 0.90
- BLINK - Rating at event: juanflatroo 1.04 | -gxx 1.04 | rigoN 1.03 | SENER1 0.96 | sinnopsyy 0.88
- BLINK - Rating past three months: rigoN 1.13 | juanflatroo 1.11 | -gxx 1.05 | sinnopsyy 1.00 | SENER1 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Copenhagen Flames removes Dust2
BLINK removes Nuke
Copenhagen Flames picks Overpass
BLINK picks Inferno
Copenhagen Flames removes Mirage
BLINK removes Vertigo
Ancient is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen Flames win 2-0.
This isn’t the biggest event on the calendar for Copenhagen Flames, but this should be an easy win for them in theory. BLINK’s permaban is Nuke, which means that CPH should pick Overpass, where they have their highest win rate across any map in the past three months at 72.22% (13-5 W/L record). Meanwhile, BLINK have lost six of their last seven on Overpass, and their T side has been a real struggle with a 33% T round win percent across those seven maps. BLINK would start CT Overpass, so they might get off to a decent start, but Copenhagen Flames’ utility protocols should prevail on that map easily. BLINK have won eight in a row on Inferno, while CPH have struggled on that map with a 6-12 W/L record in the past three months. Thus, if BLINK were to have a chance on any map, it would be Inferno. The Flames have had some poor performances on Inferno lately, so it’s difficult to be overly confident in them, but they looked good on that map against Ninjas in Pyjamas at the Major earlier in the month, and they should still have an edge against BLINK just in terms of talent. Both teams like Ancient, so I could see that being floated through as the decider, however that is Copenhagen Flames’ most played map in the past three months, so I think the Danes will have this series locked up in three maps if they don’t manage to sweep.
On Draftkings, Zyphon is one of my favorite plays at only $6,600. He is the only member of his team with a positive K/D ratio on Overpass in the past month across five maps played, and he is tied with roeJ for a 1.13 Rating during that time. Zyphon is also the only member of Copenhagen with a positive K/D ratio on Inferno in the past month across five maps played, and he leads his team with a 1.04 Rating during that time. Everyone else on Copenhagen is in play for me besides HooXi, while juanflatroo would be my favorite on BLINK. My preferred stack would be three from Copenhagen with Zyphon as a key play.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Zyphon ($6,600) | roeJ ($9,400) | jabbi ($7,400) | nicoodoz ($8,000)
Extra Salt (World rank: #25) vs. MOUZ NXT (World rank: #27) - 12:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Extra Salt (+130) | MOUZ NXT (-160)
Map Handicap: Extra Salt +1.5 (-225) | MOUZ NXT -1.5 (+180)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
- Extra Salt - Rating at event: N/A
- Extra Salt - Rating past three months: oSee 1.30 | floppy 1.18 | MarKE 1.13 | FaNg 1.11 | JT 1.08
- MOUZ NXT - Rating at event: torzsi 1.40 | siuhy 1.23 | szejn 1.21 | JDC 1.18 | xertioN 1.12
- MOUZ NXT - Rating past three months: torzsi 1.29 | xertioN 1.20 | siuhy 1.15 | szejn 1.11 | JDC 1.11
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Extra Salt removes Mirage
MOUZ NXT removes Overpass
Extra Salt picks Inferno
MOUZ NXT picks Vertigo
Extra Salt removes Ancient
MOUZ NXT removes Dust2
Nuke is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Extra Salt wins 2-1.
MOUZ NXT are the highest rated team at this event with a 1.23 Rating across eight maps played, and torzsi leads the event with a 1.40 Rating during that time, however this is only Extra Salt’s first match at Pinnacle Fall Series 3 since they received a playoff invite. MOUZ NXT have been on fire, but I’m still not sure that they should be sizable favorites against Extra Salt, who have just beaten three solid opponents (MAD Lions, Renegades, Sprout) since coming in second at iBUYPOWER Mythic Masters Winter 2021. I see this match as a coinflip, which means Extra Salt are my preferred target for DFS/Betting as the underdog. Extra Salt have never lost on Inferno with this lineup (7-0 W/L record) and their stats have been off the charts with a 79.8% 5v4 conversion rate and 43.9% 4v5 conversion rate. They have been excellent on both CT side & T side with a 66.7% CT round win percent and 64.6% T round win percent. MOUZ NXT actually have their lowest win rate on Inferno with this lineup, though their W/L record is still good at 10-5. MOUZ NXT’s two favorite maps are Mirage & Nuke. Extra Salt should ban Nuke, and Extra Salt also love playing Nuke, so it’s possible that map gets floated through as the decider, and it could be a tight map if it is played. In this case, MOUZ NXT would likely pick Vertigo, though Extra Salt have won both times on that map with this lineup across two maps played, and that map has been solid for them historically. Thus, I think that are plenty of reasons to back Extra Salt in this spot.
Floppy leads his team on Inferno with a 1.32 Rating across seven maps played, and his price on Draftkings seems cheap at $7,000. FaNg has been great on Inferno as well with a 1.27 Rating, which makes him the second highest rated player on Extra Salt, and he also leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.33 Rating across two maps played. As for Nuke, oSee is at the top of his team with a 1.36 Rating across six maps played with this lineup. Thus, all three of those players seem like great options here, and their pricing is very affordable. Torzsi would be my favorite option on MOUZ NXT, but his $10,000 price tag seems a bit too expensive for this spot. JDC would be my favorite point per dollar option on MOUZ NXT, but I’d prefer to target the value on Extra Salt, though exposure to both sides could work out if this is a close series as I expect.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
floppy ($7,000) | oSee ($7,800) | FaNg ($5,400) | torszi ($10,000) | MarKE ($6,200) | JDC ($6,400) | xertioN ($8,600)