Extra Salt (World rank: #25) vs. DBL PONEY (World rank: #34) - 6:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Extra Salt (-185) | DBL PONEY (+150)
Map Handicap: Extra Salt -1.5 (+165) | DBL PONEY +1.5 (-205)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
- Extra Salt - Rating at event: MarKE 1.34 | FaNg 1.25 | oSee 1.19 | JT 1.16 | floppy 1.11
- Extra Salt - Rating past three months: oSee 1.30 | floppy 1.18 | MarKE 1.13 | FaNg 1.11 | JT 1.08
- DBL PONEY - Rating at event: afro 1.17 | Djoko 1.16 | bodyy 1.11 | Lucky 1.10 | Ex3rcice 0.97
- DBL PONEY - Rating past three months: afro 1.07 | Djoko 1.06 | Lucky 1.06 | bodyy 1.05 | Ex3rcice 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Extra Salt removes Dust2
DBL PONEY removes Mirage
Extra Salt picks Ancient
DBL PONEY picks Vertigo
Extra Salt removes Inferno
DBL PONEY removes Overpass
Nuke is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Extra Salt wins 2-1.
Extra Salt have continued their dominance outside of NA. They are now the highest rated team at this event with a 1.21 Rating across their two maps played in the quarter-finals against MOUZ NXT. They have won 27 of their 33 maps played with this lineup, and they have won four series in a row against solid opponents: MOUZ NXT, MAD Lions, Renegades & Sprout. On the other side, DBL PONEY are a scrappy team still playing without an org, and they are not the type of team to go down without a fight. Both teams typically ban Mirage, but I could see Extra Salt going for a different ban, like Dust2, considering Mirage has been the French’s permaban for a while and they never play it. Extra Salt may decide to stick with their map pick of Ancient from Tuesday considering they looked good against MOUZ NXT, and DBL PONEY have their lowest win percentage on that map in the past three months with a 5-8 W/L record. DBL PONEY’s best maps are Vertigo, Inferno, and Nuke, but Extra Salt have been excellent on all three. I expect DBL PONEY to stick with Vertigo as their map pick as they have been going for that map a lot lately, but Extra Salt is 3-0 on that map with a 95.3% 5v4 conversion rate, so it is possible that DBL PONEY switch things up. Nuke could easily be the decider since both teams like that map a lot. Ultimately, I give Extra Salt an edge in this series, but I do expect DBL PONEY to keep things interesting.
OSee struggled on Ancient on Tuesday, yet he still leads his team with a 1.60 K/D ratio and 1.35 Rating across five maps played on Ancient, so I do expect him to have a big day against DBL PONEY. FaNg continues to impress on Vertigo with a 1.38 Rating across three maps played, which should make him a great value option on Draftkings. MarKE is now the highest rated player at this event with a 1.34 Rating across the two maps played against MOUZ NXT, so I would certainly consider him at $7,000 as well. I prefer a three stack from Extra Salt, though afro could end up as a decent one-off from the French side.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
oSee ($8,800) | FaNg ($6,200) | MarKE ($7,000) | floppy ($8,000) | afro ($8,200) | bodyy ($5,800) | JT ($5,400)
ECSTATIC (World rank: #21) vs. BLINK (World rank: #28) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (-165) | BLINK (+135)
Map Handicap: ECSTATIC -1.5 (+195) | BLINK +1.5 (-240)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of Pinnacle Fall Series 3.
- ECSTATIC - Rating at event: maNkz 1.17 | FASHR 1.15 | WolfY 1.07 | birdfromsky 1.06 | Daffu 1.00
- ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.16 | WolfY 1.12 | maNkz 1.10 | Daffu 1.07 | birdfromsky 1.03
- BLINK - Rating at event: rigoN 1.06 | juanflatroo 1.05 | -gxx 1.02 | SENER1 0.98 | sinnopsyy 0.91
- BLINK - Rating past three months: rigoN 1.13 | juanflatroo 1.11 | -gxx 1.05 | sinnopsyy 1.01 | SENER1 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in September when ECSTATIC was playing under the name Lyngby Vikings, and they beat BLINK 2-1 (6-16 Vertigo / 16-7 Inferno / 9-16 Overpass). FASHR led the way with 64 kills and 1.54 Rating across three maps played.
Map Projections:
ECSTATIC removes Mirage
BLINK removes Nuke
ECSTATIC picks Vertigo
BLINK picks Inferno
ECSTATIC removes Dust2
BLINK removes Overpass
Ancient is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: BLINK wins 2-1.
Last time these teams played, they traded each other’s map pick, and then ECSTATIC won the decider map, which was Overpass. I think that BLINK would be better off banning Overpass this time around, which would leave Ancient as the decider. ECSTATIC have been solid on Ancient, but they just lost 11-16 on that map against hREDS last week, meanwhile BLINK have won 12 out of 15 on that map, and they should be able to compete better than they did on Overpass. On paper, ECSTATIC should win Vertigo, but BLINK crushed them on that map last time after not losing a single round on CT. ECSTATIC have been solid on Inferno in the past, but they have lost four of their last six on that map, meanwhile BLINK’s nine map win streak on Inferno only just came to an end on Tuesday with a loss against LDLC. BLINK have now won six series in a row against respectable opponents: LDLC, Copenhagen Flames, K23, SAW, Finest & Nemiga. I expect this to be a close series, and I think that BLINK can pull the upset based on recent form.
Gxx- leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.19 K/D ratio and 1.06 Rating across 16 maps played in the past three months. He should have plenty of upside with the AWP in his hands, which makes him a priority target for me on Draftkings at $6,400. Juanflatroo has been great on Inferno with a 1.13 K/D ratio and 1.13 Rating across 22 maps played in the past three months, leading his team in both categories. I like him a lot at $7,600. RigoN is often the top frag for BLINK, which would make him a crucial part of any BLINK stack. FASHR and WolfY would be the top priorities on ECSTATIC as they lead their team in Rating on Inferno and Vertigo, respectively, though BLINK is my preferred team to stack here as the cheaper team on Draftkings.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
gxx- ($6,400) | juanflatroo ($7,600) | rigoN ($8,400) | WolfY ($7,800) | sinnopsyy ($5,600) | FASHR ($8,600)