Gambit (World rank: #4) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #19) - 8:20 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-165) | Fnatic (+135)
Round Handicap: Gambit -2.5 (-125) | Fnatic +2.5 (Even)
- This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Winter 2021
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.34 | Hobbit 1.20 | Ax1Le 1.13 | nafany 1.04 | interz 0.96
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: smooya 1.28 | mezii 1.16 | Brollan 1.12 | KRIMZ 1.06 | ALEX 1.03
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 16-10 on Mirage.
To me, this reeks of a letdown spot for Fnatic. Their lineup has been on fire having won 29 of their 33 maps played together, but they have mainly faced tier two competition and now they are going up against the number four team in the world, Gambit. This is a LAN event, but there is not a live audience, which removes the concerns that we may have about Gambit and their nerves in front of a crowd. There is a ton of firepower on the side of Fnatic, but Gambit is a methodical team that will pick you apart strategically, and you need more than just firepower to beat them. This will be the biggest test that Fnatic have faced with their new lineup, and I expect Gambit to humble them a bit here. Sh1ro leads his team on Mirage with a 1.38 K/D ratio and 1.29 Rating across 10 maps played in the last three months, and his recent form has been excellent, so I like spending up for him on Draftkings at $9,200. He also leads his team in both categories on Overpass, which is another possibility for the map in this best-of-one, so sh1ro feels really safe if you can find the salary to afford him.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
sh1ro ($9,200) | Ax1Le ($7,400) | Hobbit ($8,400) | nafany ($6,200) | smooya ($8,000) | Brollan ($6,400)
Virtus.pro (World rank: #7) vs. ENCE (World rank: #13) - 8:20 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (-195) | ENCE (+160)
Round Handicap: Virtus.pro -3.5 (Even) | ENCE +3.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Winter 2021
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | Jame 1.14 | FL1T 1.06 | Qikert 1.05 | buster 1.00
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.12 | dycha 1.08 | Maden 1.05 | hades 1.02 | doto 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Virtus.pro wins 16-12 on Overpass.
The most important thing to note here is that Snappi tested positive for COVID-19, which means that Maden is standing in on ENCE. This is a significant loss for ENCE because Snappi is their IGL, and he brings a veteran presence to the team at 31 years of age. The upside for ENCE is that Maden likely brings more firepower to the table, and he should finish with plenty of frags. Virtus.pro have had FL1T in their lineup for over a month now, and I expect them handle ENCE given the stand-in. Virtus.pro are a slow, methodical team, similar to Gambit, and they should be able to dissect a team that lacks experience as a unit, and is without their IGL. I’m expecting Overpass as the map here considering FPX may be willing to play it since Maden has been solid on that map. Virtus.pro have the better stats on that map with a 7-2 W/L record in the past three months (3-1 W/L record with this lineup). Thus, FunPlus Phoenix could decide to ban Overpass, but either way I think that VP should have the advantage here on most maps. YEKINDAR has been insane on Overpass in the past three months averaging 0.84 kills per round along with a 1.29 Rating across nine maps played. FL1T has also had some of his best performances on Overpass, so both of them should be great options on Draftkings, especially if that map is played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
YEKINDAR ($8,800) | FL1T ($7,600) | Jame ($8,000) | qikert ($6,400) | Maden ($5,600) | hades ($6,600)
FaZe (World rank: #8) vs. BIG (World rank: #16) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-260) | BIG (+205)
Round Handicap: FaZe -3.5 (-120) | BIG +3.5 (-105)
- This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Winter 2021
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.13 | rain 1.12 | karrigan 0.94 | olofmeister 0.94
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.08 | syrsoN 1.01 | k1to 0.97 | gade 0.96 | tiziaN 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced last week at BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021 and FaZe swept 2-0 (16-11 Dust2 / 16-9 Inferno). Rain led the way with 48 kills and a 1.40 Rating across two maps played.
Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 16-13 on Mirage.
Warning: FaZe have dominated BIG this year. BIG won the first meeting of the year between these teams, but that was a charity tournament, plus XANTARES was still on the roster. The teams played each other three more times in 2021 and FaZe swept all three times. Thus, it would be fair to assume another win here for FaZe, but keep in mind that anything can happen in a best-of-one format. I really think that FaZe are just favored by too much at (-260) moneyline odds. Additionally, the pricing on Draftkings is much more expensive for FaZe, and I’d rather get to other spend-up options than Twistzz or broky on this four game slate. BIG have underperformed as of late, but they have had to face NAVI and Gambit in the past two weeks, and this seems like a great opportunity to buy low on them, especially on Draftkings where their pricing is cheap. SyrsoN leads his team with a 1.33 K/D ratio and 1.17 Rating across 10 maps played on Mirage in the past three months, and I really like taking a shot on him at $6,800, especially if Mirage ends up as the map. TabseN also has a 1.17 Rating on Mirage during that time, so his $7,400 price tag also seems worth a gamble. The only other option that I would consider on BIG would be k1to since he has been excellent on Mirage with a 1.14 Rating.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
syrsoN ($6,800) | tabseN ($7,400) | k1to ($5,800) | Twistzz ($9,400) | broky ($8,600)
Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. GODSENT (World rank: #24) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-435) | GODSENT (+330)
Round Handicap: Heroic -5.5 (Even) | GODSENT +5.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-one series on LAN for the group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Winter 2021
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.10 | refrezh 1.05 | cadiaN 1.03 | sjuush 1.02 | TeSeS 1.01
- GODSENT - Rating past three months: felps 1.16 | dumau 1.14 | latto 1.08 | b4rtiN 1.04 | TACO 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 16-9 on Inferno.
Heroic are the biggest favorites on the slate and (-435) moneyline odds may seem steep for a best-of-one, but I expect the Danes to outclass the Brazilians here. GODSENT have made a name for themselves in recent months with their success in the North American region, but they haven’t proven that they can beat international competition outside of tier two. Heroic are a top five team in the world, and we have never seen GODSENT take down a team of this caliber. It would not surprise me to see GODSENT keep things close to start, but I expect Heroic to pull away with this match on any map in the pool besides maybe Vertigo (which will likely be banned). Inferno makes sense as a possibility for this best-of-one, and TeSeS leads his team with a 1.09 Rating across nine maps played on Inferno in the past three months. He is also the cheapest member of Heroic at only $6,000 on Draftkings, which makes him my favorite value play of the day due to his ridiculously low price. Refrezh has the highest K/D ratio on his team at 1.11 during that time, and he would be my favorite spend-up option on the Danish side.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
TeSeS ($6,000) | refrezh ($9,000) | cadiaN ($8,200) | stavn ($9,800) | sjuush ($7,200) | felps ($6,800)