Gambit (World rank: #4) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #7) - 10:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-245) | Virtus.pro (+195)

Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+125) | Virtus.pro +1.5 (-150)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group B upper bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021.
  • Gambit - Rating at event: Hobbit 1.69 | Ax1Le 1.56 | sh1ro 1.10 | nafany 1.10 | interz 0.82
  • Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.34 | Hobbit 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.15 | nafany 1.04 | interz 0.97
  • Virtus.pro - Rating at event: Jame 1.27 | buster 1.25 | FL1T 1.18 | YEKINDAR 1.13 | Qikert 0.83
  • Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | Jame 1.15 | FL1T 1.06 | Qikert 1.04 | buster 1.01

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced on October 31st in a best-of-one for PGL Major Stockholm, and Gambit won 16-14 on Vertigo. Hobbit was the top performer with 39 kills, 118.5 ADR, and a 1.67 Rating.

Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-1.

If I had to pick one team that was going to win this tournament, it would probably be Gambit. After day one of IEM Winter 2021, Gambit are the highest rated team at the event with a 1.25 Rating in their win on Ancient against Fnatic. Hobbit is the highest rated player so far at the event with a 1.69 Rating, while Ax1Le is in third at 1.56. As we saw on Thursday, there is no live audience at this LAN event, which removes any concerns we may have had about Gambit’s nerves in front of a crowd. On the other side, Virtus.pro needed overtime to get past ENCE on Ancient, which is a bit worrying considering ENCE were missing their IGL, Snappi. Gambit seem to be in much better form right now and I like them to win here. 

VP’s best maps as of late have been Inferno, Ancient and Overpass. They’ve recorded some recent wins on Vertigo too, but they wouldn’t even consider that map since Gambit have been the best team in the world on Vertigo with a 34-4 W/L record in 2021. As for Inferno, Gambit have won three in a row on that map, and VP would be a coinflip at best to win on that map if it is their pick. I’m still not sold on VP’s Ancient at this point, but the size of the map does seem to fit their preferred slow playstyle, so that could be an option they look to more in the future. Still, Gambit have won four of their last five on Ancient, and I’d favor Gambit on that map. Overpass is Gambit’s usual secondary choice when Vertigo is banned, and they have a 7-2 W/L record on that map, so I doubt that VP would want to pick that map either. Thus, the map pool should be well in the favor of Gambit. These teams have played several close maps/series in the past, which is why I am giving VP a map here, but I still think Gambit should have this series locked up. My favorite play on Draftkings would be Hobbit based on the excellent form he showed on Thursday as the highest rated player at this event.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

Hobbit ($8,400) | sh1ro ($9,200) | Ax1Le ($7,600) | Jame ($6,600) | nafany ($6,800) | YEKINDAR ($7,600)

 

Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #6) vs. OG (World rank: #15) - 10:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-135) | OG (+110) 

Map Handicap: Ninjas in Pyjamas -1.5 (+215) | OG +1.5 (-270)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group A lower bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021.
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: device 1.13 | REZ 1.07 | Plopski 0.99 | es3tag 0.91 | hampus 0.83
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: device 1.13 | REZ 1.08 | hampus 1.08 | Plopski 0.98 | es3tag 0.89
  • OG - Rating at event: mantuu 1.27 | valde 1.19 | niko 1.19 | flameZ 0.91 | Aleksib 0.90
  • OG - Rating past three months:  mantuu 1.10 | flameZ 1.08 | valde 1.05 | niko 1.01 | Aleksib 0.99

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in September at ESL Pro League Season 14, back when LNZ was still on NiP instead of es3tag. OG won that series 2-1 (15-19 Overpass / 16-12 Mirage / 16-4 Dust2) and flameZ led the way with 73 kills and a 1.37 Rating.

Prediction/Narrative: OG wins 2-1.

The odds on this match-up were actually flipped last time these teams played with OG as the (-135) moneyline favorite. At that time, NiP were establishing Ancient as a solid map for themselves, while OG had not even played it a single time. OG managed to win that series and have since gained experience on Ancient. I don’t think that NiP have really improved since then as they have now had a 2-6 W/L record with es3tag in the lineup, and they announced that they will be replacing THREAT as their coach, so why are NiP favored on Friday? Sure, this is a LAN event, and we can expect a player like device to step up while a young player like flameZ might struggle, but surely OG should be favored here. Neither team had the most convincing first day of this tournament, which is why they are competing in the lower bracket, though NiP clearly had tougher match-ups. Still, I expect OG to win here, so I will happily back them as underdogs.

Both teams usually ban Vertigo, which could make the map veto interesting. NiP banned it last time, but they may consider floating it through to gain more of an advantage in the map pool. NiP have only won two maps with es3tag in the lineup, so it makes some sense to look at their stats with LNZ in the lineup as well for more data. Inferno has been their most played map in the past three months, but their T side has been terrible with a 44.6% win rate across 16 maps played during that time. Inferno has also been one of OG’s best maps with a 6-1 W/L record in the past three months. The only other maps that NiP might feel comfortable with would be Ancient or Nuke. OG banned Ancient last time, and might do the same on Friday, which means Nuke is more probable. I’m still not sold on NiP’s Nuke yet though considering they had lost four of their last five prior to their win over Astralis on Thursday. Either way, the map pool looks solid enough for OG to pull through here. OG picked Mirage last time against NiP, and if they pick it again then mantuu would likely be a great DFS play considering he leads his team with a 1.19 K/D ratio and 1.13 Rating across 10 maps played in the past three months. Niko has also stood out on that map with a 1.07 Rating, and his price tag is super cheap at $5,400 on Draftkings. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

mantuu ($8,200) | niko ($5,400) | flameZ ($7,200) | device ($9,000) | valde ($6,400) | Aleksib ($4,800) 

 

BIG (World rank: #16) vs. GODSENT (World rank: #24) - 2:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-165) | GODSENT (+135) 

Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+190) | GODSENT +1.5 (-235)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group B upper bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021.
  • BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.36 | tabseN 1.10 | tiziaN 1.08 | k1to 1.03 | gade 0.75
  • BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.08 | syrsoN 1.02 | k1to 0.97 | gade 0.95 | tiziaN 0.90
  • GODSENT - Rating at event: latto 1.27 | TACO 1.15 | felps 1.05 | dumau 0.88 | b4rtiN 0.73
  • GODSENT - Rating past three months: felps 1.16 | dumau 1.14 | latto 1.08 | b4rtiN 1.03 | TACO 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-1.

GODSENT have been rolling lately, and they just beat Heroic on Thursday, but I don’t want to overreact to a best-of-one due to the high variance that comes along with that format. I predicted that BIG would upset FaZe on Thursday, and they managed to do so despite FaZe’s dominance against them in the past. On paper, GODSENT have the better stats in recent months. The Brazilians will likely ban Dust2, which is BIG’s most played map, so the Germans are at a disadvantage in that sense. GODSENT have a solid map pool on paper as they have torn through the North American region, while BIG have yet to find consistency with gade in the lineup. Still, I think that this is a good match-up for BIG stylistically. BIG are sometimes outmatched in terms of firepower at the top level, but against the lower tier one/tier two teams, they usually are way ahead strategically. BIG have a lot of cheeky strats that they break out, and they are usually ready for any curveball strategies that lower ranked teams might try to pull on them. Plus, GODSENT don’t have a dedicated AWPer, which is usually a formula for syrsoN to get really comfortable with the peeks that he takes with his own sniper rifle. I think this could be a close series, but I liked the form that BIG showed on Thursday, and I think they can win this series in three maps. 

BIG often pick Mirage when Dust2 is unavailable, but I could also see them going for Nuke here. They have won five in a row on Mirage with an 89% 5v4 conversion rate during that time. BIG have lost four out of their last five on Nuke, but we have to consider the competition that they have faced, which is NAVI, MOUZ, ENCE & Copenhagen Flames in these losses. Those teams are elite on Nuke, and BIG still managed to win 10+ rounds against each opponent. GODSENT have played a lot of Nuke in recent months, but it has been one of their worst maps, and their W/L record is only 8-9 in the past three months, which makes it their only map with a win rate below 50% besides Dust2. It would make sense for GODSENT to punish pick Inferno considering BIG have a 2-8 W/L record on that map in the past three months compared to 10-3 for GODSENT. Thus, if BIG were to win this series, it would likely be in three maps. I really like playing syrsoN on Draftkings due to the lack of a dedicated AWPer on GODSENT, plus he has continued to frag on Mirage with a 1.36 K/D ratio and 1.19 Rating across 11 maps played in the past three months. SyrsoN also leads his team on Inferno in terms of K/D ratio and Rating.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

syrsoN ($8,000) | tabseN ($8,800) | k1to ($7,200) | felps ($8,000) | dumau ($7,000) | gades ($6,200) 

 

Astralis (World rank: #9) vs. Liquid (World rank: #12) - 2:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-245) | Liquid (+195)

Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+140) | Liquid +1.5 (-170)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group A lower bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021.
  • Astralis - Rating at event: Xyp9x 1.20 | blameF 1.20 | gla1ve 1.00 | Lucky 1.00 | k0nfig 0.73
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.16 | blameF 1.11 | gla1ve 1.05 | Lucky 0.98 | Xyp9x 0.96
  • Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.13 | Stewie2K 1.12 | FalleN 1.00 | EliGE 0.87 | Grim 0.85
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.19 | EliGE 1.12 | Stewie2K 1.05 | Grim 1.00 | FalleN 0.99

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in September at BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021, which was prior to Astralis adding BlameF & k0nfig to their roster, plus gla1ve was on paternity leave. Astralis won that series 2-1 (9-16 Vertigo / 16-11 Nuke / 16-13 Dust2) and Lucky was the highest rated player with a 1.31 Rating across three maps played.

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.

Astralis has historically owned Liquid. In fact, the Danes have won the last 11 meetings between these teams going back to 2019. Now, both teams have made multiple changes during that time, but several of the core members remain in place, and I expect the Danish dominance to continue. Astralis have won 10 out of 16 maps played with their new roster, and they already look like an elite team that is capable of winning against the world’s best. Meanwhile, Liquid will be disbanding as a team by the end of the year, and NAF & EliGE are the only two members that will remain. The team chemistry has been a big issue for them as not all of their players get along, and I can’t help but wonder if that was a factor into EliGE’s stat line on Dust2 against G2 on Thursday as he finished with 7 kills and 26 deaths along with a 0.37 Rating. The future looks bright for Astralis, and meanwhile this iteration of Liquid is all but finished, plus Astralis has dominated Liquid in the past, so I think the Danes will cruise to victory on Friday.

Nuke has been the clear favorite map for Astralis as 7 of their 16 maps played with this lineup have been on Nuke. They have a 4-3 W/L record on Nuke with a dominant CT side (63.0% CT round win rate) and they have beaten solid teams: Heroic, Vitality, MOUZ & Ninjas in Pyjamas. Nuke has also been Liquid’s worst map with a 3-6 W/L record in the past three months. Liquid may decide to pick Overpass, where they have won eight in a row, or Vertigo could be the other option for them depending on Astralis’ ban. Astralis may still need more work on a map like Overpass, but they beat NiP on that map last week in their first ever series with this roster, and I think they are capable of beating Liquid, all things considered. Xyp9x has stood out on Nuke, leading his team with a 1.14 Rating across seven maps played, and he is only $6,000 on Draftkings, so I love him as a value option. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

Xyp9x ($6,000) | blameF ($8,600) | k0nfig ($9,400) | Lucky ($7,000) | gla1ve ($7,800) 

 

*Preferred Stacks: Gambit, Astralis, OG, BIG

*Favorite Spend-Ups: Hobbit, blameF, sh1ro, mantuu, syrsoN, k0nfig, Ax1Le, tabseN

*Favorite Value Plays: Xyp9x, niko, Lucky, flameZ, k1to