MAD Lions (World rank: #23) vs. Enterprise (World rank: #46) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: MAD Lions (-280) | Enterprise (+225) 

Map Handicap: MAD Lions -1.5 (+110) | Enterprise +1.5 (-135)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-155)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the round of 16 of Stage 2 for Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
  • MAD Lions - Rating at event: N/A
  • MAD Lions - Rating past three months: Woro2k 1.15 | jL 1.09 | b0RUP 1.02 | sausol 1.01 | TMB 1.00
  • Enterprise - Rating at event: forsyy 1.51 | The eLiVe 1.38 | manguss 1.11 | MATYS 1.09 | ADEJIS 0.91
  • Enterprise - Rating past three months: forsyy 1.19 | The eLiVe 1.05 | MATYS 1.05 | manguss 1.04 | ADEJIS 0.89

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Maps:

MAD Lions removes Vertigo

Enterprise removes Nuke

MAD Lions picks Mirage

Enterprise picks Ancient

MAD Lions removes Overpass

Enterprise removes Dust2

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: MAD Lions win 2-0. 

Enterprise made it through the first stage of this event with wins against EC Brugge & Ambush, meanwhile MAD Lions will be making their tournament debut with their second round invite. They have been playing solid Counter-Strike in the past month having won 16 of their 27 maps played, and they took a map against Gambit, Entropiq, Movistar Riders, and SINNERS during that time. MAD Lions have not had as much success in the past month only having won 13 of their 30 maps played, but they have certainly faced a more difficult group of teams. Also, it took three maps for Enterprise to get past EC Brugge, meanwhile MAD Lions beat them in two maps when they played EC Brugge, with a dominant 16-3 win on Mirage. Enterprise are capable of winning a map, but I think that MAD Lions have more than enough talent to sweep here. Both teams ban Vertigo, which could make the map veto interesting. Still, my projected maps above seem to be best case scenario for Enterprise, and I’d be surprised to see them win on Mirage or Ancient. MAD Lions are 4-1 in the past month on Mirage with an impressive 77.6% CT round win percent during that time. On the other side, Enterprise have their worst win rate across any map on Mirage with a 1-3 W/L record in the past month. Enterprise have been solid on Ancient with a 6-1 W/L record during the past month, and they might consider picking it especially since MAD Lions have struggled with a 1-4 W/L record during that time. However, the level of competition that MAD Lions is far superior to that of Enterprise, and MAD Lions might be ready after being recently. tested by good teams such as Fnatic, Extra Salt, Sprout, and ECSTATIC. MAD Lions would also start CT where they have a 64.8% round win percentage in the past month despite losing four out of five maps played. Overall, I think that MAD Lions have a big advantage here in terms of firepower, and the map pool does not benefit Enterprise enough for me to really consider the possibility of an upset. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

Woro2k ($9,600) | b0RUP ($7,800) | TMB ($5,800) | jL $(8,600) | forsyy ($7,200) | sausol ($7,000)

  • Woro2k leads his team on Mirage with a 1.31 K/D ratio and a 1.29 Rating across 16 maps played in the past three months. B0RUP has also been a notable performer on that map with a 1.19 K/D ratio and a 1.12 Rating during that time. 
  • Woro2k also leads his team on Ancient with a 1.34 K/D ratio and 1.25 Rating across 13 maps played in the past three months. JL is the only other player with a positive K/D ratio and Rating above one at 1.34 and 1.25, respectively. 
  • TMB is the lowest rated player on MAD Lions in the past three months, but Mirage & Ancient are two of his best maps with a 1.04 Rating on Mirage and 0.99 Rating on Ancient during that time.

 

AGO (World rank: #32) vs. INDE IRAE (World rank: #60) - 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: AGO (-220) | INDE IRAE (+175) 

Map Handicap: AGO -1.5 (+140) | INDE IRAE +1.5 (-165)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the round of 16 of Stage 2 for Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
  • AGO - Rating at event: N/A
  • AGO - Rating past three months: mhL 1.18 | F1KU 1.15 | leman 1.04 | kRaSnaL 1.04 | Furlan 0.97
  • INDE IRAE - Rating at event: DavCost 1.21 | RaiLWAY 1.19 | facecrack 1.17 | floweaN 1.08 | hurtfrisk 0.94
  • INDE IRAE - Rating past three months: RAiLWAY 1.05 | facecrack 1.05 | DavCost 1.04 | hurtfrisk 0.99 | floweaN 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters played two recent best-of-ones on Nuke at the end of November. INDE IRAE won the first, 16-13, with floweaN topping the server with a 1.51 Rating. F1KU had the most kills with 28 along with a 115.4 ADR. AGO won the second time around, 16-14, and F1KU was the MVP with 31 kills and a 1.57 Rating. Once again, floweaN led his team with 26 kills and a 1.23 Rating.

Projected Maps:

AGO removes Overpass

INDE IRAE removes Dust2

AGO picks Nuke

INDE IRAE picks Inferno

AGO removes Mirage

INDE IRAE removes Vertigo

Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: AGO wins 2-1.

INDE IRAE took three maps to get past both Apeks Rebels & ECLOT in the first stage of this tournament, while AGO had a second round invite. AGO brought mhL back into their active roster in October, and he has been just as excellent as he was when they originally benched him. AGO have won 20 out of 33 maps played with this lineup, and mhL leads the team with a 1.26 K/D ratio and 1.20 Rating. They now have a six man roster that includes Grashog, but he isn’t expected to play here. INDE IRAE made some noise earlier in the year with a roster that included X5G7V, but that young talented player was acquired by K23, and INDE IRAE have been underwhelming since. They have won only 23 out of 53 maps played with this lineup, and they have a win rate less than 50% on every map besides Ancient (and Dust2, which they haven’t played at all). AGO typically ban Overpass, which means that INDE IRAE can ban away Dust2 to start. AGO don’t have a clear map pick here with Dust2 out of the way. They would normally go for Ancient, but that has been INDE IRAE’s best map, so do you really want to pick into it? AGO won last time on Nuke, and they seem to have the clear better protocols on that map, so I think it would be a good option for them here. INDE IRAE would also likely want to float Ancient through as the decider since both teams like that map. INDE IRAE may decide to pick Inferno, which has been their most played map and has also been AGO’s worst map in terms of win rate with a 1-2 W/L record with this lineup. INDE IRAE also like Mirage, but AGO are very solid on that map. These teams played two recent best-of-ones and both of them were close. INDE IRAE also seem to have a decent map pool here as the underdog, so I expect this to be a tight series. I give an edge to AGO to win this since they have been in better form recently, but I think this series could go either way and I like having exposure to both sides in DFS. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

mhL ($9,200) | DavCost ($6,200) | F1KU ($8,400) | RAilWAY ($6,800) | leman ($7,400) | facecrack ($7,600) | kRaSnaL ($6,600) | floweaN ($4,600) 

  • F1KU leads AGO on Nuke with a 1.34 K/D ratio and 1.33 Rating, though mhL is not far behind with a 1.32 K/D ratio and 1.25 Rating. DavCost leads INDE IRAE on Nuke with a 1.16 K/D ratio and 1.10 Rating, though it was floweaN who performed well on that map the last two times against AGO. 
  • On Inferno, mhL tops his team with a 1.23 K/D ratio and a 1.17 Rating. Leman has also been a notable performer as the only other member of his team with a positive K/D ratio and Rating above one at 1.14 and 1.10, respectively. Facecrack leads INDE IRAE on Inferno with a 1.15 K/D ratio and 1.11 Rating.
  • MhL also leads on Ancient with a 1.34 K/D ratio and 1.23 Rating. The next best player on AGO has been kRaSnaL with a 1.08 K/D ratio and 1.19 Rating on Ancient. DavCost has the highest K/D ratio on his team on Ancient at 1.28, while RAiLWAY has been the highest rated with a 1.25 Rating.

 

*Preferred Stacks: MAD Lions, mhL/DavCost

*Favorite Spend-Ups: Woro2k, mhL, b0RUP, F1KU, jL

*Favorite Value Plays: DavCost, TMB, RAilWAY