Dignitas (World rank: #40) vs. Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #14) - 7:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Dignitas (+165) | Copenhagen Flames (-205) 

Map Handicap: Dignitas +1.5 (-180) | Copenhagen Flames -1.5 (+145)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
  • Dignitas - Rating at event: Lekr0 1.24 | f0rest 1.22 | hallzerk 1.19 | HEAP 1.17 | friberg 0.90
  • Dignitas - Rating past three months: hallzerk 1.11 | HEAP 1.09 | f0rest 1.06 | Lekr0 1.05 | friberg 0.86
  • Copenhagen Flames - Rating at event: Zyphon 1.33 | roeJ 1.29 | nicoodoz 1.21 | jabbi 1.08 | HooXi 1.13
  • Copenhagen Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.20 | nicoodoz 1.09 | Zyphon 1.04 | jabbi 1.04 | HooXi 0.90

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have faced each other three times in 2021. Copenhagen won two of the three series, all of which went to three maps. Copenhagen won the most recent meeting in November 2-1 (6-16 Ancient / 16-12 Inferno / 16-7 Mirage). Nicoodoz tied Lekr0 for the most kills with 59 across three maps, though Lekr0 topped the leaderboards in ADR (92.0) and Rating (1.23).

Projected Maps:

Dignitas removes Overpass

Copenhagen Flames removes Dust2 

Dignitas picks Inferno

Copenhagen Flames picks Ancient 

Dignitas removes Mirage

Copenhagen Flames removes Nuke

Vertigo is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen wins 2-1.

Copenhagen Flames appear to be back in good form after a slump post-Major. They have swept their last three series and they have won four of their last five series against solid opponents: MAD Lions, AVE, Movistar Riders, and Sprout. The Danes are tied with Nemiga as the highest rated team at this event with a 1.18 Rating across four maps played, and the individuals are playing well, like Zyphon, who is not typically the carry over roeJ & nicoodoz, yet he leads his team with a 1.33 Rating at this tournament. On Tuesday, Dignitas barely scraped by INDE IRAE including a loss on Ancient and a tight 30 round battle on Nuke, which is typically one of Dignitas’ best maps. Dignitas did sweep Eternal Fire in their first match-up, but Lekr0 hard carried with 70 kills across two maps, and we can’t expect him to play at that insane of a level consistently. Both of these teams typically ban Dust2, which could make the map veto interesting. The only map that I think Dignitas can beat Copenhagen on would be Inferno considering the Danes have a 6-12 W/L record on that map in the past three months. Dignitas have a 6-4 W/L record on Inferno during that time, so a punish pick might make sense here. The rest of the map pool should be well in the favor of Copenhagen though, even if Dignitas do remove a map like Overpass to start. I expect Copenhagen to pick Ancient here despite the fact that Dignitas beat them on that pick last time. Copenhagen have a 13-7 W/L record on Ancient in the past three months compared to a 2/4 W/L record for Dignitas. INDE IRAE proved on Tuesday that Dignitas are not the strongest team on Ancient, and Dignitas have now lost three in a row on that map. Overall, I favor Copenhagen Flames to win here, but Dignitas do have the potential to take a map like Inferno, which is a weak spot for the Danes. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

jabbi ($6,600) | roeJ ($8,800) | nicoodoz ($8,400) | Zyphon ($7,400) | Lekr0 ($5,200) | HEAP ($6,800) | f0rest ($6,000) 

  • Jabbi has the highest K/D ratio on his team on Ancient in the past three months at 1.15 across 20 maps played. 
  • RoeJ leads his team in Rating in the past three months on both Ancient (1.15) and Inferno (1.02). He is the only member of Copenhagen with a Rating above one across 18 maps played.

 

ECSTATIC (World rank: #20) vs. MOUZ NXT (World rank: #26) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (-130) | MOUZ NXT (+105)

Map Handicap: ECSTATIC -1.5 (+210) | MOUZ NXT +1.5 (-265)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
  • ECSTATIC - Rating at event: FASHR 1.16 | maNkz 1.14 | WolfY 1.11 | birdfromsky 1.11 | Daffu 0.97
  • ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.16 | WolfY 1.12 | maNkz 1.10 | Daffu 1.07 | birdfromsky 1.03
  • MOUZ NXT - Rating at event: torzsi 1.22 | xertioN 1.19 | JDC 1.12 | siuhy 1.09 | szejn 1.04
  • MOUZ NXT - Rating past three months:  torzsi 1.26 | xertioN 1.18 | siuhy 1.13 | JDC 1.11 | szejn 1.09

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in November (when ECSTATIC was playing under the name Lyngby Vikings) and ECSTATIC won 2-1 (12-16 Dust2 / 16-14 Ancient / 16-5 Inferno). WolfY led the way with 72 kills and a 1.36 Rating across three maps.

Projected Maps:

ECSTATIC removes Mirage

MOUZ NXT removes Overpass

ECSTATIC picks Vertigo

MOUZ NXT picks Nuke

ECSTATIC removes Dust2

MOUZ NXT removes Inferno

Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: MOUZ NXT wins 2-1.

MOUZ NXT started this event from stage one and have been grinding their way to their spot in the semi-finals. They have beaten Fennix, GORILLAZ, HAVU, and on Tuesday they swept 1WIN. No team has played more maps at this event than MOUZ NXT, yet MOUZ NXT still rank as the sixth highest team at Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4 with a 1.13 Rating despite the larger sample size (11 maps played). 1WIN proved to be quite the test for MOUZ NXT, and it took triple overtime for them to win on Ancient, but I think that win should give them the confidence to float through Ancient here instead of having Inferno as the decider map, which ECSTATIC dominated on last time. ECSTATIC received a stage two invite to this event, and they have beaten Nemiga and BLINK to get here. They’ve looked decent at this tournament, but their 3-16 loss on Overpass against Nemiga was a bit of a headscratcher. ECSTATIC play a ton of events in general and they have won 37 out of 58 maps played in the past month, which is impressive both in terms of win rate (63.8%) and volume. However, MOUZ NXT do have the superior win rate (75.8%) having won 25 out of 33 maps played in the past month. I have each of these teams winning their own map picks here with ECSTATIC as one of the best tier two teams on Vertigo with an 25-5 W/L record in the past three months. MOUZ NXT don’t play Vertigo as much as some other maps, though their map pool is still solid throughout. I expect MOUZ NXT to pick Nuke where they have a 13-3 W/L record and a dominant CT side (68.4% CT round win rate) in the past three months. Nuke is certainly one of ECSTATIC’S weakest maps with a 6-5 W/L record in the past three months. Thus, this series could easily be split down the middle for the first two maps. I’m giving MOUZ NXT an edge to win the series based on their form at this event, and because I think that they’re the better team, but this could go either way for sure.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

torzsi ($8,000) | siuhy ($6,200) | xertioN ($7,000) | JDC ($5,400) | WolfY ($8,200) |  Szejn ($4,800) | birdfromsky ($5,600)

  • Torzsi leads his team in Rating on Vertigo (1.34) and Nuke (1.32) in the past three months. 
  • Vertigo & Nuke have been two of siuhy’s best maps as he is third on his team in Rating with a 1.16 Rating on each.

 

*Preferred Stacks: Copenhagen Flames, MOUZ NXT

*Favorite Spend-ups: roeJ, torzsi, nicoodoz, Zyphon, WolfY

*Top Value Options: jabbi, siuhy, xertioN, JDC, Lekr0