G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #5) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-300) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+235)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+110) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (-135)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket quarter-finals of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.35 | huNter- 1.18 | AmaNEk 1.06 | nexa 1.06 | JaCkz 0.99
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: phzy 1.10 | REZ 1.09 | hampus 1.07 | Plopski 0.99 | es3tag 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced last week at IEM Winter and NiP won 2-1 (19-16 Nuke / 10-16 Dust2 / 16-14 Inferno), but kennyS was standing in for nexa. Despite the loss, NiKo still led the way with 80 kills and a 1.33 Rating.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-0.
Yes, NiP did just upset G2 on Saturday with phzy standing in for device. G2 were heavy favorites, but they did also have kennyS coming off the bench to fill in for their IGL, nexa. Now that nexa is back, G2 should be a lot more solid, and now we are somehow getting even better odds on G2 moneyline. Phzy is certainly capable of competing at the tier one level, but NiP are not at full strength, and they won’t have any tricks up their sleeve this time, so G2 should be ready. G2 can comfortably pick Dust2 again if they want, though Mirage is another strong option for them. NiP needed overtime on their map pick last time, so Nuke is not a lock if they pick it again. If Inferno ends up as the decider again, then both teams are capable of winning on that map, but I think G2 take this in two maps to prove that last time was just a fluke.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($9,800) | huNter- ($8,800) | AmaNEk ($7,000) | nexa ($8,000) | hampus ($5,600) | JaCkz ($6,000)
- NiKo did all that he could to carry last time in this match-up with 80 kills across three maps, including 34 on Nuke, and he should be an excellent spend-up option again.
- If G2 do decide to pick Dust2 again, then AmaNEk could be a great value choice since he is tied for the lead on his team on Dust2 in K/D ratio (1.19) and Rating (1.22) in the past three months.
Vitality (World rank: #2) vs. Astralis (World rank: #9) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-215) | Astralis (+170)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+145) | Astralis +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket quarter-finals of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | apEX 1.05 | shox 1.01 | misutaaa 1.01 | Kyojin 0.89
- Astralis - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.13 | blameF 1.12 | gla1ve 1.04 | Lucky 0.98 | Xyp9x 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced twice at BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021 in November and Vitality won 2-1 both times (22-18 Nuke / 14-16 Dust2 / 16-11 Inferno) and (12-16 Nuke / 16-11 Inferno / 16-7 Mirage). ZywOo was the top performer both times with 84 kills and a 1.41 Rating across three maps the first time and 78 kills and a 1.55 Rating across three maps the second time.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.
Vitality went on an unexpected second place run at BLAST Premier Fall Final including two wins against Astralis. However, that previous event was the debut of this new lineup for Astralis, and the Danes still managed to play several close maps despite their lack of experience as a unit. Plus, this tournament is the ‘final dance’ for Vitality’s dead roster, and we probably can’t expect another grand final run from them. Thus, I think this is a great spot to play Astralis as an underdog. The map pool looks better for Vitality on paper, but I see plenty of upside with this Astralis roster, and the match-up was really even the past two times with both series going the distance to three maps. The Danes brought in a ton of firepower with the addition of blameF & k0nfig, and I think they are capable of pulling the upset here.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
blameF ($7,000) | k0nfig ($7,800) | ZywOo ($9,200) | Xyp9x ($4,600) | Lucky ($5,200) | gla1ve ($6,200) | misutaaa ($6,600)
- BlameF leads this roster in K/D ratio (1.17) and Rating (1.16) in the 18 maps that they have played together. He is one of my top value options at only $7,000 on Draftkings.
- Nuke is Astralis’ most played map and they picked it both times against Vitality last time. Xyp9x leads his roster with a 1.09 Rating across eight maps played, and he could be a tremendous value option at $4,600.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Heroic (World rank: #6) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-1065) | Heroic (+700)
Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (-230) | Heroic +1.5 (+185)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+225) | Under 2.5 (-285)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round one of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- Natus Vincere - Rating at event: b1t 1.07 | s1mple 1.05 | Boombl4 0.97 | Perfecto 0.95 | electronic 0.90
- Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.31 | b1t 1.19 | electronic 1.18 | Perfecto 1.03 | Boombl4 0.99
- Heroic - Rating at event: cadiaN 0.91 | refrezh 0.88 | sjuush 0.85 | TeSeS 0.84 | b0RUP 0.62
- Heroic - Rating past three months: cadiaN 1.02 | sjuush 1.02 | TeSeS 1.02 | refrezh 1.01 | b0RUP 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other since b0RUP is standing in for stavn at this event. The teams did face at the end of November at BLAST Premier Fall Final and NAVI won 2-1 (16-11 Inferno / 14-16 Mirage / 16-12 Overpass). S1mple hard carried with 75 kills and a 1.40 Rating across three maps.
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.
NAVI in the lower bracket? It was surprising to see NAVI end their 10 match win streak with a loss to Liquid on Tuesday, but they did have some margin for error in the upper bracket. Now that we are into the lower bracket, I fully expect to see NAVI locked in again. Liquid have been a kryptonite for NAVI in the past and they always seem to have wonky series. The Danes have never beaten NAVI and this match-up has historically been one-sided. Now mix in the fact that Heroic are playing with b0RUP as a stand-in, and it becomes clear that NAVI is a lock. B0RUP does have chemistry in this roster, but he had a 0.62 Rating on day one of the event, and he is clear downgrade from Heroic’s highest rated player of the past three months, stavn. NAVI are (-1065) moneyline favorites and I would be shocked to see them lose here.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
s1mple ($10,400) | Perfecto ($7,400) | b1t ($9,400) | electronic ($8,400) | refrezh ($4,800)
- Inferno is the most likely map pick for Heroic an s1mple leads his team with a 1.40 K/D ratio and 1.30 Rating on that map. S1mple is my favorite spend-up option on the slate as he has been the best player in the world in 2021 and this is a good bounce back spot for him and his team.