Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #5) vs. Astralis (World rank: #9) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-115) | Astralis (-105)
Map Handicap: Ninjas in Pyjamas -1.5 (+255) | Astralis +1.5 (-325)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-115)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round one of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: es3tag 1.10 | Plopski 1.06 | hampus 0.97 | phzy 0.97 | REZ 0.96
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: phzy 1.09 | REZ 1.08 | hampus 1.07 | Plopski 0.99 | es3tag 0.91
- Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 0.90 | k0nfig 0.82 | Xyp9x 0.68 | Lucky 0.63 | gla1ve 0.31
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.11 | k0nfig 1.11 | gla1ve 1.00 | Lucky 0.97 | Xyp9x 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other since phzy is standing in for device, but the teams have played twice since Astralis formed their current roster. Astralis swept the first meeting in November 2-0 (16-7 Nuke / 19-16 Overpass) with k0nfig hard carrying (60 kills and a 1.52 Rating across two maps). NiP won the second meeting 16-8 in a best-of-one on Nuke and REZ had the most kills with 26 while device was the highest rated player (1.73 Rating).
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Phzy first stood in for device against G2 at IEM Winter and him and his team started off with a bang with an upset win over G2. However, they’ve lost five out of six maps played since then, so I don’t want to get too excited about the initial win over G2. They’ve been keeping things competitive and es3tag has also looked better finding his role within the team, so there are still positives. On the other side, Astralis have looked awful. On Wednesday, they won only 10 rounds total across two maps against Vitality. Prior to that, they won 11 rounds total across two maps against Liquid, including a 1-16 loss on their map pick, Nuke. Perhaps one more roster change is in order for Astralis considering Lucky was brought into the team to AWP and now he wants to rifle. Either way, it’s clear that this team is not playing to the best of their ability at the moment. NiP beat Astralis 16-8 on Nuke in a best-of-one when they last met and NiP have now won five of their last six on Nuke with their win against G2 on Wednesday, so Astralis may want to figure out another map pick since their lineup has a losing record on Nuke (4-5 W/L record). NiP have better stats than Astralis across the board at the moment, plus the fact that phzy is standing in does not bother me because A) he has been solid with a 0.98 Rating so far and B) because Astralis don’t have a dedicated AWPer to make him uncomfortable. Phzy might be inexperienced compared to some of the Danes, but he’s still a better AWPer than gla1ve. Either way, the odds for this series are a joke considering the recent form of these teams, and I have NiP winning in two or three maps depending on how Astralis perform because the Danes do at least have enough firepower to compete with anybody. K0nfig is somehow the most expensive play on Draftkings from this series, so I will gladly stack NiP at cheaper pricing.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
REZ ($7,600) | hampus ($6,600) | phzy ($8,600) | es3tag ($4,600) | blameF ($8,000) | Plopski ($5,800) | k0nfig ($8,800)
Gambit (World rank: #4) vs. Liquid (World rank: #12) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-235) | Liquid (+190)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+145) | Liquid +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- Gambit - Rating at event: nafany 1.37 | sh1ro 1.36 | interz 1.23 | Hobbit 1.06 | Ax1Le 1.00
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.30 | Ax1Le 1.16 | Hobbit 1.15 | nafany 1.04 | interz 0.98
- Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.29 | EliGE 1.17 | Stewie2K 1.17 | FalleN 0.94 | Grim 0.73
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.17 | EliGE 1.13 | Stewie2K 1.05 | FalleN 0.99 | Grim 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in September at ESL Pro League S14, and Gambit won 2-1 (12-16 Inferno / 19-16 Vertigo / 16-12 Mirage). Hobbit was the top performer with 73 kills and a 1.29 Rating across three maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-0.
Yes, Liquid just beat the best team in the world, NAVI, on Tuesday. However, I’m not going to overreact because Liquid has always been a thorn in the side of NAVI. Liquid have beaten NAVI in the past against the odds, but they don’t have that same history with Gambit. In fact, Liquid lost to Gambit the one time they played. Liquid have a dead roster that is going to look different in 2022, yet them seem to have hit a stride in the past few weeks with some flashes of brilliance from their generally underperforming lineup. The one weakness of Gambit has been LAN, but the BLAST Premier World Final does not take place in front of a live audience, which should help calm their nerves. If both teams are playing at their best, then I don’t think there is a single map that Liquid should beat Gambit on. Overpass has been Liquid’s best map considering they have won nine in a row on it, but that map is Gambit’s go-to choice when Vertigo is banned, and they have a 9-2 W/L record in the past three months along with an 80.1% 5v4 conversion rate and 37.7% 4v5 conversion rate. Inferno is Liquid’s most played map in recent months and it’s not Gambit’s strongest, but Liquid have lost five of their last six on Inferno, so I’m not sure that they can be trusted there. The only other possibility would maybe be Mirage, but Liquid just got smoked on that map by NiP 6-16 earlier this month. Overall, I just don’t see how Liquid would be able to win two maps against Gambit, and I think this could easily be a sweep. I like stacking Gambit and my favorite option is Hobbit at $7,800 considering he topped the server in kills when these teams last met.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Hobbit ($7,800) | sh1ro ($9,600) | nafany ($7,000) | Ax1Le ($9,000) | EliGE ($6,400) | interz ($6,000)
Vitality (World rank: #2) vs. G2 (World rank: #3) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-175) | G2 (-145)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+190) | G2 +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-110)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the upper bracket semi-finals of BLAST Premier World Final 2021.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 2.08 | misutaaa 1.43 | shox 1.28 | apEX 1.15 | Kyojin 1.12
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.32 | apEX 1.06 | misutaaa 1.02 | shox 1.02 | Kyojin 0.90
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.46 | AmaNek 1.06 | huNter- 0.98 | JaCkz 0.90 | nexa 0.78
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.35 | huNter- 1.16 | AmaNEk 1.06 | nexa 1.04 | JaCkz 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced on December 4th at IEM Winter and G2 won 2-1 (14-16 Vertigo / 16-14 Mirage / 16-9 Inferno). NiKo continued his dominance with 68 kills and a 1.24 Rating across three maps played.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1.
Vitality may have a dead roster, but they somehow have had their best form ever for their final two events, and they lead this tournament so far with a 1.41 Team Rating across two maps. ZywOo put up a ridiculous stat line in Vitality’s first round match-up against Astralis with 52 kills, 13 deaths and 2.08 Rating across two maps played. They’re the number two ranked team in the world at the moment and playing with no pressure has seemed to allow them to fire on all cylinders. Thus, we shouldn’t underestimate them even if their roster will look much different in 2022. With all of that being said, there is no way that they should be such heavy favorites against G2. These teams have faced three times in 2021 and G2 won all three series with Vitality only taking a single map of the seven played. G2 are in a similar situation with their roster likely to change soon, and they have not looked as sharp as Vitality lately, but they are certainly a capable underdog especially if NiKo continues to play at such an elite level. NiKo is averaging 0.87 kills per round in the past three months which is an incredible mark for a rifler. I’d favor G2 in this match-up on Mirage, Dust2 and Inferno, while Vitality would be favored on Nuke and possibly Vertigo (with Ancient and Overpass likely banned to start). Vitality hardly won their own map pick of Vertigo last time against G2 in a 30 round battle, so G2 should have plenty of opportunities to win this series. I have G2 winning in three maps, and I feel obligated to back them at these moneyline odds/Draftkings prices. NiKo & huNter- are both too cheap and I like pairing them on this slate, while ZywOo should be a good option even if Vitality lose.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($8,200) | huNter- ($6,800) | ZywOo ($9,200) | nexa ($5,400) | misutaaa ($6,400) | AmaNEk ($6,200)