Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. G2 (World rank: #3) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-550) | G2 (+405) 

Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (-150) | G2 +1.5 (+125)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+170) | Under 2.5 (-210)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier World Final 2021. 
  • Natus Vincere - Rating at event: electronic 1.22 | s1mple 1.20 | b1t 1.12 | Perfecto 1.06 | Boombl4 0.94
  • Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.31 | electronic 1.20 | b1t 1.19 | Perfecto 1.04 | Boombl4 0.98
  • G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.34 | AmaNEk 1.05 | huNter- 0.87 | JaCkz 0.85 | nexa 0.76
  • G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.35 | huNter- 1.15 | AmaNEk 1.06 | nexa 1.03 | JaCkz 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These rosters last met at the grand final of PGL Major Stockholm and NAVI won 2-0 (16-11 Ancient / 22-19 Nuke). S1mple was the MVP with 72 kills and a 1.51 Rating across two maps. 

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.            

NAVI haven’t necessarily looked untouchable at this event. They dropped their series against Liquid to start, and they needed overtime to beat Heroic on Nuke with b0RUP standing in for stavn. NAVI did look unstoppable at the Major, where they didn’t drop a single map, yet G2 were one round  (and one missed deagle shot from Niko) away from beating NAVI on Nuke and sending the series to a third map. Thus, (-550) moneyline odds seem too steep for NAVI here, and if I was betting on this series, then I would sprinkle some money on G2. Regardless, NAVI will likely still win the series and they would have to be the priority on Draftkings. G2 have lost five in a row on Nuke and NAVI can feel comfortable picking that map again like last time considering they have won 23 out of 25 maps played on Nuke in 2021. G2 went with the ‘surprise pick’ of Ancient last time to try and throw NAVI off their game, but they were unsuccessful. Still, they might consider going back to that map since NAVI look so strong on every other map at the moment. NAVI should be focused now that they are facing elimination, and I expect them to show why they are the best team in the world. G2 still have some work to do on their roster including bringing in a dedicated AWPer in 2022, and NAVI will likely sweep them here.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

s1mple ($9,800) | b1t ($7,200) | NiKo ($6,600) | electronic ($9,200) | Perfecto ($8,000)

  • S1mple put on a show last time he played G2 with a +31 K/D Difference and 1.51 Rating across two maps. He is the best player in the world, and he is one of the strongest options on the entire slate. NiKo is the second highest rated player at the event with a 1.34 Rating and $6,600 seems too cheap not to take a shot even if NAVI sweep. I’d either stack three from NAVI or pair NiKo with s1mple & b1t. 

 

Astralis (World rank: #9) vs. Liquid (World rank: #12) - 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (+105) | Liquid (-125)

Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-295) | Liquid -1.5 (+235)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-115)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier World Final 2021. 
  • Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.23 | Xyp9x 0.91 | k0nfig 0.91 | gla1ve 0.85 | Lucky 0.84
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.13 | k0nfig 1.08 | gla1ve 1.01 | Lucky 0.96 | Xyp9x 0.94
  • Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.11 | EliGE 1.01 | Stewie2K 0.97 | FalleN 0.86 | Grim 0.79
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.17 | EliGE 1.11 | Stewie2K 1.03 | FalleN 0.97 | Grim 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced earlier this month at IEM Winter and Liquid swept 2-0 (16-1 Nuke / 16-10 Mirage). Grim had the most kills (38) and FalleN had the highest Rating (1.41) across two maps. Every member of Liquid had a positive K/D ratio. 

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.

Liquid’s ‘dead roster’ embarrassed Astralis when they met two weeks ago with a 16-1 win on the Dane’s map pick, Nuke. However, Astralis have historically dominated Liquid. Prior to their recent meeting, Astralis had won the last 11 meetings between these teams going all the way back to 2019. The rosters have changed over time, but many of the core members remain in place, and I have to imagine that gla1ve and his team will have a solid game plan in place to avoid back-to-back spankings from the North Americans. Keep in mind that Astralis were (-245) moneyline favorites against Liquid last time and now they are somehow underdogs. This new Astralis roster has been inconsistent on Nuke with a 5-5 W/L record and only a 36.5% T round win percentage, and they only won a single round against Liquid last time, but it still would not surprise me to see them pick Nuke on Friday with new strats ready to go. As for Liquid, they picked Mirage last time and won 16-10, but Astralis did pick Mirage themselves against NiP on Thursday, so the Danes must have some confidence on the map. Gla1ve has proven to be a liability at times with the AWP but if he is playing well then this should be an easy series for Astralis. This is a coinflip at best of Liquid, and I especially do not think that they should be favored given the history between these teams, so it makes a lot of sense to back Astralis in this spot. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

blameF ($7,400) | k0nfig ($8,600) | Xyp9x ($5,400) | Gla1ve ($7,000) | EliGE ($7,600) | Lucky ($5,800) | NAF ($8,400) 

  • BlameF leads Astralis in Rating (1.23) at this event and is the only member to have a Rating above one. He should be an excellent value play at $7,400 if he can continue his good form. Gla1ve has been struggling at times in his new role of being the main AWPer, so he is a risky play, but there is still certainly potential upside.

 

*Preferred Stacks: NAVI, Astralis

*Top Captain Plays: s1mple, k0nfig, electronic, Perfecto

*Favorite Value Options: b1t, blameF, NiKo, Xyp9x, Gla1ve