ECSTATIC (World rank: #20) vs. Complexity (World rank: #28) - 6:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (+105) | Complexity (-125)
Map Handicap: ECSTATIC +1.5 (-275) | Complexity -1.5 (+220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for round one of the lower bracket of the Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals
- ECSTATIC - Rating at event: maNkz 1.00 | WolfY 0.99 | birdfromsky 0.97 | Daffu 0.95 | FASHR 0.91
- ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.11 | WolfY 1.08 | maNkz 1.06 | Daffu 1.02 | birdfromsky 1.00
- Complexity - Rating at event: floppy 1.20 | Grim 0.99 | junior 0.93 | FaNg 0.84 | JT 0.75
- Complexity - Rating past three months: junior 1.27 | floppy 1.20 | FaNg 1.18 | JT 1.11 | Grim 0.92
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other since this is only Complexity’s second match together with this roster. The Extra Salt core (flpppy, FaNg, JT) did face ECSTATIC back in December at Pinnacle Fall Series 3 and ECSTATIC swept 2-0 (16-13 Ancient / 16-14 Vertigo). Daffu led the way with 49 kills and a 1.37 Rating.
Map Projections:
ECSTATIC removes Nuke
Complexity removes Mirage
ECSTATIC picks Inferno
Complexity picks Ancient
ECSTATIC removes Overpass
Complexity removes Dust2
Vertigo is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: ECSTATIC wins 2-1.
Both of these teams find themselves in the lower bracket after dropping their opening series of the tournament. ECSTATIC (formerly known as Lyngby Vikings) got swept by Entropiq, including a double overtime loss on their map pick, Vertigo, while Complexity did manage to steal Vertigo from the number two team in the world, Gambit. Based solely on those results, you could argue that Complexity looks better at the moment, but I still think that ECSTATIC should be favored in this spot. An important thing to note is that JT is having visa issues, which means that he has to play away from the team and is playing on 140 Ping, according to his Twitter. He was the lowest rated player on the server against Gambit, and I expect his struggles to continue in these circumstances. At full strength, Complexity might have an edge in this series, but when you consider the fact that JT is playing with severe lag and also that this is only Complexity’s second match together with this roster, then it becomes clear why an experienced roster like ECSTATIC might be able to take advantage.
As for the maps, Vertigo used to be the go-to map for ECSTATIC, but they have lost five in a row on it, and Complexity just beat perhaps the best Vertigo team in the world, Gambit, on Wednesday, so maybe ECSTATIC considers another option, like Inferno. ECSTATIC have won eight of their last ten on Inferno, and their T side has been excellent with a 63.4% win rate along with an impressive 4v5 conversion rate at 37.5% during that time. It’s difficult to compare these numbers to Complexity given the lack of match history for this roster, plus the fact that the Extra Salt core used to mainly face weak North American competition, which boosted their stats in the past. Extra Salt’s most played map in the past three months was Nuke, and we can expect ECSTATIC to ban that right off the bat, which leaves Ancient as a possible option. However, ECSTATIC have their highest win rate across any map in the past three months on Ancient with a 9-4 W/L record, and they beat Extra Salt on that map last time. Overall, this could set-up to be a tight series, but I will happily back ECSTATIC as the underdog. My preference would be to stack two or three players from ECSTATIC on this slate. Inferno is one of WolfY’s best maps with a 1.37 K/D ratio and 1.21 Rating across 17 maps played in the past months, which makes me like him even more at his $7,200 price tag.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
WolfY ($7,200) | FASHR ($8,000) | floppy ($7,600) | Daffu ($5,600) | junior ($8,800) | maNkz ($6,400) | FaNg ($6,800)
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #12) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (Even) | Fnatic (-120)
Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-280) | Fnatic -1.5 (+215)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for round one of the lower bracket of the Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals
- Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.48 | k0nfig 1.13 | Lucky 1.10 | gla1ve 0.99 | Xyp9x 0.90
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.21 | k0nfig 1.09 | gla1ve 1.00 | Lucky 0.94 | Xyp9x 0.92
- Fnatic - Rating at event: smooya 1.06 | Brollan 1.04 | ALEX 0.98 | mezii 0.98 | KRIMZ 0.88
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: smooya 1.18 | mezii 1.18 | Brollan 1.14 | KRIMZ 1.08 | ALEX 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Both teams have made multiple changes to their lineup since these teams last met.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Vertigo
Fnatic removes Dust2
Astralis picks Nuke
Fnatic picks Overpass
Astralis removes Ancient
Fnatic removes Mirage
Inferno is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.
It is surprising to me to see Astralis in the lower bracket after their loss to K23 on Tuesday, but the Danes have simply yet to find consistency with this roster. Lucky is back on the AWP which seems like a good idea, but perhaps Astralis are still considering bringing in a more dominant AWPer with more experience in tier one. Either way, the series against K23 felt very winnable for Astralis as they outclassed their opponents on Inferno, 16-8, and they almost beat K23 in double overtime on Mirage, but k0nfig performed below expectations. If you’ve ever watched k0nfig play on Mirage, then you know it is extremely rare to see him as the lowest rated player of his team on that map. In 2021, k0nfig finished with a 1.16 Rating on Mirage across 47 maps played, so his 0.92 Rating from Tuesday seems like an anomaly. Thus, I don’t want to overreact to a loss that could have easily been a sweep if k0nfig played as we have come to expect. As for Fnatic, I am somewhat surprised to see them in the lower bracket as well, but less so than Astralis since BIG is a solid team, and most of Fnatic’s success with this roster has come against tier two teams. I give Astralis an edge over Fnatic, but both teams have a ton of firepower, so this likely won’t be one-sided.
Astralis haven’t really established their map pool with this roster, which does concern me. Their most played map is Nuke, and their win rate is only 50% on that map with a 5-5 W/L record thus far. Still, Fnatic dropped that map on Wednesday against BIG, and I expect the Danes to have a strategical edge on that map if they decide to pick it here. Fnatic have their highest win rate on Inferno, but that map has historically been Astralis’ bread and butter. Thus, Fnatic may look to pick a map like Overpass, though they have lost on that map twice in a row. The numbers do look better for Fnatic across the board, but we must consider the weak level of opponents that Fnatic was facing when they first formed this roster. Thus, I am rolling with Astralis here, and my preferred option would be to stack two or three from the Danish side. If I was taking one play from Fnatic, then it would be smooya since Astralis do not have a dominant AWP presence on the other side of the server, which allowed xsepower to thrive on Tuesday in the same situation. As for Astralis, they have only two players with a K/D ratio and Rating above one since forming this roster, which would be blameF & k0nfig. I feel good about trusting those two, but outside of that, everyone else feels pretty risky, though I do give Lucky a bump since he is back on the AWP.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
k0nfig ($7,400) | blameF ($8,600) | smooya ($9,000) | Lucky ($6,000) | Xyp9x ($5,200) | mezii ($7,800) | gla1ve ($6,600)