Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings

O/U: 220.0

Spread: SAC -2.5

Injuries:

Philadelphia

Danny Green QUEST

Joel Embiid OUT

Ben Simmons OUT

Sacramento

None

MVP/CPT

De’Aaron Fox, PG – Three of the past five games have been extremely disappointing for Fox, checking in at less than 26 DraftKings points each time. But we are lacking elite upside plays in this game, and Fox has shown 45+ points ability multiple times this season. The 76ers also allow the second-most fast break points in the NBA so look for Fox to get out and run in this one. 

Tyrese Maxey, PG – In the absence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, Maxey has been the surprise star for Philadelphia, and is my preferred choice for the MVP spot tonight. Over his last seven games, he has over 40 DK points in four of them and only under 30 points once. The Kings are a bottom-five team against both point guards and shooting guards so Maxey should be able to have a pre-Thanksgiving feast tonight.

Tobias Harris, PF – Harris is the most consistent of the MVP choices tonight, and he is now up to 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season. In his five games since returning from the COVID list he has played below 31 minutes just once, so the floor is safe and the ceiling is 36 minutes and 50 DK points like what he put up against Indiana last week. The Kings have been surprisingly stingy against power forwards this year, but their defensive rating still ranks 26th overall. 

UTIL

Harrison Barnes, SF/PF – Barnes is playing some of the best offensive basketball of his career right now, averaging 18 points per game in his last 11 contests. He is also at 5.4 rebounds and more than a steal per game over his last seven. He doesn’t do quite enough in all categories to make my MVP shortlist, but at $7,800 the price is right against Philadelphia who allows 21 points per game to small forwards and 23 to power forwards. 

Richaun Holmes, C – Holmes has been a lot more boom or bust than fantasy managers anticipated he would be before the season started. He has six games below 30 DK points and only two above 40 DK points. Part of that is the Kings have been involved in seven blowouts already (games decided by 12+ points), so Holmes’ minutes have fluctuated between 16 and 33 this year. With a tight 2.5-point spread tonight, my expectation is Holmes sees a lot of time on the court trying to slow down Andre Drummond. 

Seth Curry, SG – The DvP for the Kings defense against any position is not a pretty site, but it’s especially bad against shooting guards. Sacramento allows 2.5 more points to the position than any other team, including 25.5 points per game and 3.5 three-pointers per game. Enter Seth Curry should thrive in that environment at a very nice $6,000 salary. But the best stat for Curry lately has been the minutes. He played less than 32 minutes just once in his last 10 games and has hit the 30 DK-point threshold five times in that span. 

Value Tier

Matisse Thybulle, SF/PF – A seven game absence due to COVID caused Thybulle’s salary to plunge all the way down to $2,000 tonight. But he was back on the court for 21 minutes in Philadelphia’s last game and posted 14.25 DK points. Before his time off, Thybulle was on a streak of seven games with at least three steals+blocks per night in addition to three rebounds, a couple assists and five points per night. On the season, his 17.4 DK-point average would be all we need to soar past value at his low salary.  

Alex Len, C – If you think Holmes’ minutes will be limited in any way, Len is an elite point-per-minute producer who could excel if given extra court time in this contest. Len averages just over one fantasy point per minute this year, but usually has minutes land in the 14-20 range. At just $1,400 with an average of 16.9 DK points on the season, Len could be the key that unlocks all the rest of the studs in your lineup with his own potential to 10x his salary.