Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors

O/U: 216

Spread: GSW -7.0

 

Injuries:

Phoenix

Devin Booker OUT

Frank Kaminsky OUT

Dario Saric OUT

Abdel Nader QUEST

Golden State

Andre Igoudala OUT

Klay Thompson OUT

James Wiseman OUT

 

MVP/CPT

Stephen Curry, PG – What more can really be said about Curry at this point. We need new superlatives in the English language to describe him and what he is doing this year. Curry is far and away the favorite for MVP this year and has five 50-point fantasy games in his last seven to back it up. The only downsides are the sky-high $20,100 salary and the fact that the Suns held him to just 23.25 DK points on Tuesday. But that was the worst shooting game of Curry’s career and now he is back with an eye of taking back the top seed in the West. If you can find the players you like in the rest of your lineup, don’t overthink it. 

Chris Paul, PG – With no Devin Booker tonight, Paul will carry an extra offensive load and there will be plenty of usage that could flow to him. Paul is at 35 fantasy points in five straight games and, more importantly, at least 32 minutes in four of those five games. The Warriors are unbelievably stingy against point guards but he torched them for 51.7 fantasy points on Tuesday WITH Booker in the lineup. Paul’s usage rate was only 17% in that game and I will be the farm it is higher than that tonight. 

Draymond Green, PF/C – Green keeps finding a way to get it done across the entire box score. He averages over 32 fantasy points per game despite not shooting more than eight shots in any of his last 10 games. The rebounds and assists remain strong but the blocks and rebounds have really improved in the last three games (eight combined stocks). Green and Paul likely have the most double-double potential on this Showdown Slate and Green is a threat for a triple-double in any game. 

UTIL

Deandre Ayton, C – Ayton is typically a tad too inconsistent for me to trust in the MVP spot, but he is necessary for your utility spots assuming you can fit him in. What we must hope for in a tough defensive matchup against Green and the Warriors is that Ayton has a usage rate similar to the game against Golden State on Thursday. In that one, his usage rate of 29% was his second-highest of the season and it led to 48 DK points and a huge double-double. 

Jordan Poole, PG/SG – Speaking of usage rate, the Warriors handed Poole a 25.5% usage rate last time these teams met and he rewarded them with 28 points and 43.5 fantasy points on the night. Poole hasn’t played less than 31 minutes in two weeks and is now over 30 DK points per game on the season. Only downside here is if Curry’s shot is falling, Poole will be less involved this time. But his floor here is safe as a 30-point producer in competitive games. 

Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF – At $8,400 we must have more of an offensive presence than Wiggins showed the last time these teams met where he could only put up 20.25 fantasy points with 33% shooting. I’m going to put more stock in the 31.4 points per game he averaged in the five games prior, especially because the Suns sneakily allow 21 points, eight rebounds and almost three three-pointers per game to small forwards. The usage dropped off to 18% in that game, but it had been at 20%+ in 19 straight games prior. 

Value Tier

Cameron Payne, PG/SG – We caught a glimpse of how the Suns will use Payne without Booker on the floor the next few games. How does this sound for $4,400: 27 minutes, 20% usage, 19 points, six rebounds, two assists and 32 fantasy points. Yeah, that’ll do just fine. Landry Shamet may start, but Payne is going to get the big minutes as the backup guard to both spots. 

Gary Payton II, PG/SG – Payton is certainly a hit-or-miss player, but for $3,200 you could certainly do a lot worse. Just like his dad, The Glove Jr. relies on strong defensive stats (averaging four rebounds and 2.3 steals in his last three) to rack up fantasy points. Add in six to 12 actual points each night and you get a recipe for at least 16 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. If he gets closer to 18-20 minutes tonight, this could be an easy 6x of his salary.