Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers

O/U: 217.5

Spread: BOS -1.0

 

Injuries:

Boston

Romeo Langford QUEST

Jaylen Brown OUT

Portland

Damian Lillard OUT

Nassir Little OUT

Anfernee Simons OUT

 

MVP/Captain

Jayson Tatum, SF/PF – We now have a huge sample this season when Jayson Tatum plays and Jaylen Brown does not. Assuming Brown does not play again in this one, we can expect around a 34% usage which is about 2% higher than usual. Tatum has back-to-back games with over 50 fantasy points and the only thing we have to worry about is the 38 minutes he played last night in Utah. He did play 34 minutes on back to back night two weeks ago so hopefully the Celtics feel comfortable rolling him out for this one. 

CJ McCollum, PG/SG – Similar to Tatum, McCollum gets a huge usage and scoring boost when his superstar partner is off the floor. Damian Lillard will miss this game which has meant a 31.5% usage rate and almost 40 fantasy points per game this season for McCollum. He still took 18 shots and played 32 minutes in a 30-point blowout two nights ago, so no matter what, the minutes and production should be safe. The trick tonight may be figuring out how to get both McCollum and Tatum in the same lineup considering the massive role they both play. 

Jusuf Nurkic, C – Nurkic comes into this slate with more than a $3,000 discount off of both Tatum and McCollum. The issue with Nurkic is you have two competing forces that we must consider. First, his minutes played are typically anywhere from 20 to 32 and it’s been tough to predict where in that range he will fall. He seems to play more minutes in close games and in games against teams with size. Second, he leads the Blazers with 1.29 fantasy points per minute and has 50-point upside this season. He is certainly a leverage play against the top two guys, especially if Boston rest any of their big men. 

 

Utility

Al Horford, C – If you could guarantee me that Horford would play 34 minutes again tonight, I would likely have him in the MVP spot instead of Nurkic. However, the last time Horford played on the second night of a back to back, he played 30 minutes and scored 38 fantasy points. He has simply been an offensive and defensive savior with Robert Williams banged up for much of the season and he is up to 1.17 fantasy points per minute this season. The Blazers allow top-five numbers in scoring and assists to centers this season.

Dennis Schroder, PG – The most encouraging thing about Schroder lately is the high usage rate. In 14 of his last 16 games he has a usage rate higher than 21%. That has translated into four games of more than 35 fantasy points in his last 10. The Blazers allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the point guard position. He did play almost 39 minutes last night, so watch the news to see if he ends up being limited.

Norman Powell, SF – The lowest salary of the mid-tier players available on this slate, Powell brings a guaranteed 20 fantasy points and upper-20’s in minutes into this one with upside for more. Powell averages 25.4 DK points per game this year and has scored in double figures in eight straight games. He might get the task of guarding Tatum tonight which could present an opportunity for a few extra rebounds or steals. 

 

Value Tier

Josh Richardson, SG – I also like Robert Covington at this price point, but Richardson should be far less rostered despite scoring at least 19 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. If any of the starting guards or wings were to sit or be limited tonight after the tough contest in Utah, Richardson would jump into a much bigger role. Regardless, he has seen at least 20 minutes in 10 straight games and is playing well after missing three games to an illness. 

Ben McLemore, SG – With both Lillard and Anfernee Simons hurt, McLemore is taking on a much bigger role in the past couple games. After playing a total of eight minutes in the two games prior, McLemore averages 22.5 minutes and 22.5 fantasy points in his past two games. At just $2,200 on this slate, McLemore might be the best bet for someone who could 10x their salary and he would also get more minutes if this should turn into a blowout.