Top Tier
Davante Adams - I have a feeling this is going to be very chalky, but I don’t care. Fantasy production is the name of the game in the DFS and Adams is a lock to produce. The Bengals rank 22nd in DVOA against the opposition’s WR1, per Football Outsiders, and I don’t think there is much pushback for anyone besides Adams being the top dog in the Packers’ passing attack. Adams has 29 targets over the past two weeks, and that volume is what I love to see.
Justin Jefferson - Sheesh. A lot of repeat guys here! Oh well, it works. Detroit ranks 26th in DVOA against the opposition’s WR1 and WR2 this year, so if you think Thielen is the WR1, then good for you. Detroit stinks against both. The Lions have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season and Jefferson has at least seven targets in all four games to open the 2021 campaign. Oh, in two career against Detroit, Jefferson has averaged six grabs for 98.5 yards.
Chris Godwin - Are we sleeping on Godwin this week? After getting 14 targets in the season opener, Godwin has just 17 targets over the last three weeks. However, I expect him to lead the receivers in targets this week. When Tampa Bay goes in 11 personnel, Godwin will play in the slot, leaving Mike Evans and Antonio Brown to deal with Miami’s outside corners. Godwin will get to see a good bit of Nik Needham, who has allowed seven of 11 targets over the last two weeks to be caught for 95 yards, and Justin Coleman, who has allowed nearly 92 percent of his targets to be caught this season, per Pro Football Focus.
DJ Moore - This Sam Darnold-to-DJ Moore connection is something else right now. Moore has at least eight receptions and 11 targets in each of his last three contests, including three total touchdowns. The Eagles were just torched by Tyreek Hill, and Philadelphia has allowed six receiving scores to wideouts this season. Moore should add to that total by the end of the first half.
Mid Tier
Tyler Boyd - Another week I find myself looking at Boyd. Cincinnati’s going to need to keep up with Green Bay and Chandon Sullivan (GB’s slot corner) simply put has struggled this year. There’s only five corners who have graded worse than he has this year, and he’s allowed 87.5 percent of his targets to be caught, not to mention a 134.1 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Boyd is going to kill Green Bay out of the slot this weekend.
Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones - No D.J. Chark means that there should be a couple more targets to go around for these two Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence looked solid last week, and Tennessee’s pass defense is atrociously abysmal. The Titans have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, and the most receiving yards overall. I prefer Shenault to Jones, if I had to pick, but both are going to be popular plays this weekend.
Value Tier
Chester Rogers - Need a super cheap receiver? Rogers could be just that for you. And more. The Jacksonville defense ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders, and they have allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position. Even with A.J. Brown back in the mix, I still like Rogers out of the slot. He had six targets last week, and could be in line for a similar workload in a very friendly matchup.
Kadarius Toney - Toney saw nine targets against the Saints last week and he could be in line for similar usage again this week. The Giants need the football in his hands, as he’s one of the more dynamic playmakers on this offense. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, as well as 14.4 yards per reception. Daniel Jones has been playing well of late, and that should continue this week.
Jakobi Meyers - There’s going to be a healthy dose of the run game for New England in this one, but if you’ve watched any Houston game this year, you would know that there’s numerous receivers running wide open every play. As a Texans fan, it’s infuriating, but as a DFS player, it’s profitable. Meyers has 26 targets over the last two weeks, hauling in 17 of them for 164 yards. Meyers will break his touchdown streak in this one. Bank on it.
Fade
Brandin Cooks - As a Texans fan, this pains me, but it might have to be done. Davis Mills has not played well, and New England has a well-documented history of wanting to take away the opposition’s best offensive player. Well, that is Cooks. I expect New England to attempt to make him a non-factor in this one, and force the likes of Anthony Miller and Chris Conley to beat them. Cooks likely gets some targets, but I’m not expecting much ROI at his price. For what it’s worth, New England does have the third-best DVOA against the opposition’s top receiver.