The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series rolls through Texas Motor Speedway this weekend and while I am not a huge fan of this track, I had a very good night on Friday for the Camping World Truck Series. The Trucks had a lot of chalky plays available and the slate got flipped on its head when pole sitter, John Hunter Nemechek, had to start at the rear following an unapproved adjustment. But it was great to see Stewart Friesen get just his third win in the Truck Series and his first since 2019. Again, the NASCAR Cup Series is running its All-Star Race this weekend so it’s a fairly decent week to go light. I’m not all that excited but will play a few lineups for fun. Sunday night’s All-Star race will award $1 million to the winner and it truly feels like anybody could win it. Kyle Larson could repeat, Ross Chastain has been fast all season and could contend, Kyle Busch has been finding more speed lately, and realistically anybody driving a Toyota could walk away a million dollars richer. So it’s a fun and exciting race for the drivers, but it’s not one that gets me excited from a DFS perspective. But let’s take a look at the best NASCAR DFS picks for today.

The good news for the Xfinity race on Saturday is we already have practice and qualifying in the books. No scrambling to throw lineups together in just a few hours, plus I’m not stuck at work so that’s always a plus. Saturday’s race will deliver 167 laps (40-40-87) and I would say we should expect plenty of cautions this afternoon…

  • 2021 Fall – 10 cautions for 54 laps
  • 2021 Summer – 10 cautions for 52 laps
  • 2020 Fall – 10 cautions for 51 laps
  • 2020 Summer – 9 cautions for 39 laps
  • 2019 Fall – 9 cautions for 51 laps
  • 2019 Summer – 9 cautions for 50 laps

I’m not a fan of 30% of the race being run under yellow, but if that’s the case then we’ll get cheap laps led for our dominator(s). Kyle Busch won three of the last six Xfinity races here so at least we’re getting a KB-free field today. But we can look to our “usual suspects” for dominators today while also loading up on some mid-tier PD targets. A lot of the more expensive drivers are starting to the front while the value and mid-tier plays are starting further back so it truly shapes up to be a race where you should take some more risks and we have some Cup Series regulars running today’s race. So let’s dive in and take a look at the best NASCAR DFS picks today.

Driver Pool 

The $10K Range -  I’ve been going back & forth in my head all week regarding William Byron ($11,000; Starting P15). I wanted to fade him given the high ownership that would inevitably land on him. But he’s also about $1,000-$2,000 cheaper than where he should be. He’s offering PD and is in equipment that can collect dominator points. The speed was only okay in practice, but you just assume he can move through the field and collect dominator points at some point. I don’t think it’s necessarily a terrible idea to be underweight on him, but I’ll still get some exposure. At this price tag you really do need some dominator points out of him though and he did finish second here in the Cup Series last year while leading a good chunk of laps. But you can make a solid argument for anybody in this tier. We’ve seen Ty Gibbs ($10,700; Starting P7) dominate plenty of times this season. We’ve seen Noah Gragson ($10,500; Starting P1) and Justin Allgaier ($10,300; Starting P6) do the same. Gragson’s been fast all year and Allgaier has been coming on very strong the last couple races. They’re all in play in this tier to dominate. If I had to prefer one it would likely be Gragson starting on the pole. But Tyler Reddick ($10,000; Starting P2) is a perfectly good pivot. We saw him get speed out of the 48-car for Big Machine at Darlington before he got into the wall late after getting a little too aggressive. Gragson and Allgaier are probably my two favorite options in this range.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,700; Starting P13) Captain Consistency right here. Kaulig Racing hasn’t been incredibly impressive this year, but the cars are still good and Dinger has finished top ten in every single race. He started on the pole in both Texas races last year and finished sixth but I still like this play on intermediate tracks. A top five with some dominator points will return value, but we know he has the ability to dominate the race and this might not be a day where he sees a ton of exposure.

Sam Mayer ($9,100; Starting P9) I know that Mayer isn’t a great play on paper, but I like finding ways to fit him into a few builds for a few reasons. He has four top five finishes in his last five races. The outlier being Talladega. So he has momentum and the car is always fast. There will be a race where he comes out of nowhere and crushes it for his first win. With that said, this likely isn’t his preferred style of track. He’s better on short tracks but he did grab a top five at Darlington and he led 25 laps at Vegas. And with all the heavy hitters starting up front there will be leverage here. He’s not a guy you want to be super heavy on, but I’ll look to get him in three of my Happy Hour lineups.

Riley Herbst ($8,700; Starting P10) I wish I took more advantage of Herbst when he was $700 cheaper, but even at this price tag he’s a good pivot in GPP’s. Last year we always made fun of him for his high variance and for how untrustworthy he is. But this year he’s looked more composed and while he hasn’t dominated races, he’s finished well. He comes in with five straight top tens and he was third at Darlington. This isn’t one of his better tracks, but if we’re buying into the maturity I think he could go out and snag another top five finish.

Landon Cassill ($8,300; Starting P38) Easy chalk to eat for today’s race. He hasn’t been great, but he’s been running better of place and he finished 6th at Vegas. Texas is a bit different than those tracks but you can basically start your Cash games building around him since he’s such an easy PD play and if he stays clean he should be one of the top four scorers today based on PD.

Sheldon Creed ($8,100; Starting P21) He’s hit a streak of bad luck, but the RCR equipment is still great. He has just one top 20 finish since April, but he’s a good GPP pivot off the more chalky Landon Cassill. He is a bit risky as we’ve seen but he has top ten upside as we saw at Vegas. He should score well with the PD on his side.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($7,900; Starting P35) I don’t like playing Earnhardt at this price tag. I wish he was under $7K but he’s in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing and we know good drivers can get solid finishes out of this ride. Additionally, he’s starting 35th so the floor is reasonable for Cash games. I just don’t know how much exposure I’ll have in GPP’s since I don’t believe in the ceiling. Feel free to disagree with me though!

Anthony Alfredo ($7,600; Starting P37) The other Cash game lock this week is Alfredo. He’s starting on the last row with Cassill and they should easily work their way through the field together. He’s only finished outside the top 16 one time this year and I believe it was at Phoenix. You can eat the chalk with him and Cassill in Cash games since they’ll both be over 70% owned and Alfredo is perfectly fine in GPP’s since he starts so far back that there’s a great ceiling as well. He hasn’t raced Texas since 2020 but he finished third in the Fall race that year with RCR.

Brett Moffitt ($7,400; Starting P16) I’m a sucker for punishment but one of these days he’s going to finish fifth at 7% ownership and win somebody a GPP. And if we get some chaos today and if he avoids it then he probably finishes well. He’s finished 13th or better in his last three races and he was top ten at Vegas. I think he probably finishes 12th but if any of the chalky PD plays bust then Moffitt could be optimal. You can’t play him in Cash games, but he’s viable for maybe 10-15% ownership in GPP’s.

Alex Labbe ($6,800; Starting P32) Here’s a PD play who is cheaper than the more chalky plays and he should probably have less ownership. I am well aware that Labbe doesn’t have great track history here and his upside is mostly on road courses. But I don’t see many touts really talking about him for today’s race and that makes me want to target him just for leverage. He’s typically starting inside the top 20, but that won’t be the case today. He finished 18th here last Summer and 11th in the 2020 Fall race. He hits value today with a top 20. I like this play in single-entry contests a lot. Ryan Ellis ($6,700; Starting P28) is a good pivot in this range, but I’d prefer that he were cheaper. He had a very strong run earlier in the year at Vegas and I think the Alpha Prime equipment can contend for a top 15.

Jeremy Clements ($6,200; Starting P19) I haven’t written up Clements too much this year, but the price tag is really jumping out at me. $6,200 for a guy who can finish 12th-15th? I get the recent form hasn’t been great and this isn’t one of his better tracks, but he has plenty of experience here. He hits 5X value if he finishes top 15 and 6X if he finishes top 12. I’m hoping most folks overlook the discount by trying to jam in too many PD option. Similarly, I think Stefan Parsons ($5,900; Starting P18) is a good GPP pivot. He’s running Alpha Prime equipment similar to Ryan Ellis and this is much better equipment than Parsons normally runs. I don’t love the starting spot, but he’s a contrarian value play.

Ryan Vargas ($5,700; Starting P31) This is strangely a very good track for Vargas. He’s only raced here three times but he’s finished 22nd, 24th, and 8th and he’s starting outside the top 30. He is capable of going out and breaking down, but he’s finished 26th or better in four straight races. If you need a cheap value play for Cash games he’s an okay option.

Value Punts: I don’t really like anybody in this tier, but I understand some of you (and me, probably) will need to look here. I don’t want to dip below Patrick Emerling at $4,900. If I play him I basically just hope and pray for a top 25. Similarly I’ll consider David Starr for the same reasons and hope he can just move up four spots and not crush my lineups. I like the equipment for Mason Massey but I think he’s starting too high. I currently only have him in one lineup and I don’t love it. Lastly, I’ll give a little love to Bayley Currey and hope he doesn’t go backward, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he drifted backward in the early stages of the race but then contended for a top 20 by the end. Again, I don’t love dipping this low but that’s where I stand on some of these drivers.

Example Lineups

I will have Example Lineups today. Apologies for not being able to do so last night. They will be posted in Discord around 12:00pm ET.

 

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