The 2022 NASCAR Season heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway this Memorial Day Weekend! The Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend always shapes up as one of the greatest days every year if you’re a motorsports fan. We have the luxury of waking up and watching the F1 World Championship Monaco Grand Prix, then in the afternoon we get the Indianapolis 500, and then Sunday night we get the Coca Cola 600. It’s the perfect day to grill out and devour some adult beverages and enjoy over 1,200 miles of racing. Matt Selz and I have you covered with this week’s NASCAR DFS Podcast, and Matt will have a betting guide for all three races, in addition to DFS coverage for the F1 race and NASCAR Cup Series.

But we kick the weekend off with the Camping World Truck Series and the North Carolina Education Lottery 200. We get 134 laps broken up into 30-30-74 lap segments. And it’s a Kyle Busch race! So obviously we’ll touch on him, but we can discuss lineup theory first. We will have roughly 90 dominator points available. One interesting fact I found during my research was that four of the last five pole sitters have failed to lead double-digit laps, leading a combined 16 laps among them. The one drive who broke that mold was Johnny Sauter back in 2018 who led 71 laps with 24 fastest laps. So we don’t necessarily need to lock in the polesitter, but I would certainly still target multiple dominators on Friday night. This is a track that will likely see its share of cautions given that it’s somewhat of an older surface, unlike Texas last week that was re-paved in the last five years. The last five Charlotte races have averaged seven cautions for about 35 laps or so we’re likely to lose out on a handful of fast laps. I’ll be in the Discord all afternoon with the hope I can bounce out of work early to really help with updates and questions leading up to the race.

Practice Results

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($14,400) It’s a KB51 race Friday night and truthfully this is a bit of a discount on Kyle. It’s unlikely he qualifies poorly unless he has a mechanical issue, so we have to assume he’s starting in the top ten, and it’s highly likely he’s on the front row. He’s finished third in all three of his Truck races this year, but at this price tag for KFB you need him to dominate the race. He did lead 31 laps at Vegas and another 31 laps at COTA, but only one at Martinsville. Historically, we’ve seen Busch lead over 50 laps in this series. He’s raced Charlotte 14 times in the Truck Series and he’s won eight times with four runner-up finishes. He’s led at least 69 laps (nice) on eight different occasions as well. So historically we have reason to buy in and believe he can do it once again. We just haven’t seen it this year. I’m of the mindset that the contests for the Truck Series are not that great this week. Currently I’m only holding reservations in the Happy Hour contest because I’m just not in love with the other options. So currently I’m only playing $20 and seeing what happens. Now I’ll early be way overweight on KB51 or underweight and cheering for a stage three pit road penalty. For those playing a little heavier, you should spread your exposures around a little bit more. Update: KB51 qualified P3. He's very much in play. I think I may aim to be lighter than the field but that's just me. The KBM trucks looks beatable this evening.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500) A great pivot off KB51 will always be his employee, John Hunter Nemechek. Last year JHN led 71 laps with 32 fastest laps on his way to a win, but KB didn’t run in last year’s race. After a rough start to the season, JHN has finished 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 6th, and 6th in his last six races. These cookie cutter 1.5-mile tracks are where he thrives and it likely wouldn’t surprise anyone if the 4-and-51-trucks were fighting for the win in stage three. Update: He'll be very popular given the fact he's starting P15 and he dominated here a year ago. But I didn't love the speed for KBM during practice. Hopefully they turn it around on the cooler surface tonight.

Zane Smith ($10,800) For the first time all season, Zane Smith failed to finish in the top ten last week at Texas. But he was outstanding a couple weeks ago at Kansas and he has a pair of top tens at Charlotte. His truck is routinely fast and he should be a dominator candidate again this week. He also likely carries lower ownership assuming most people pay up for KB51, JHN, and Chastain. Update: Zane brought a rocket ship to the track and he's starting P2. Good candidate for dominator points.

Ross Chastain ($10,400) If Kyle Busch has been underwhelming in 2022 Truck Series appearances, so has Chastain. He hasn’t finished in the top ten in any of his races despite running up front. My exposure may depend on how he looks in practice and where he qualifies. If I’m heavy on Busch then I don’t anticipate having a ton of Chastain, but he’s still worth writing up. 

Ben Rhodes ($9,800) Rhodes has cooled off a bit since his hot start to the season where he finished 5th or better in five of the first six races. At Darlington, Kansas, and Texas he managed just one top ten finish so if that lowers ownership then I’m interested. He has three top five finishes in his last four races at Charlotte. It’s a loaded field this week and I’m surprised he’s still hovering around the $10K range, but there might be some leverage here. My personal exposure levels will depend on where he qualifies. Update: He's starting P12, which I certainly like quite a bit at this price tag.

Ryan Preece ($9,300) Another Ryan Preece week where they’re hardly budging on his price tag. He’s just $100 more expensive than he was a week ago where he finished third and collected some dominator points along the way. Overall, he’s hit at least 40 points on DraftKings in all four of his Truck races this year and he hasn’t finished worse than 7th. Update: I'll probably just play him in GPP's because he's been so consistent but he'll need some dominator points to help return value.

Grant Enfinger ($8,700) This price is too cheap for Enfinger. DraftKings went and dropped him $1,000 from last week because of the field or whatever. I don’t get it. Enfinger isn’t among the most elite drivers, but I feel like he should be $500-$800 more. We also know there’s at least some win equity here. In five races at Charlotte he’s never finished outside the top 15, but he only has two top ten finishes. If he can offer a little PD then I may be overweight on him hoping he can score a top ten or a top five. He finished third at both Darlington and Kansas before finishing 11th last week on a more freshly-paved Texas track. Charlotte hasn’t been paved in 2006 so maybe the higher tire wear can benefit him. Update: Starting P11, which is perfect at this price tag.

Matt Crafton ($8,500) Crafton shapes up to be a strong Cash game play Friday night. The price dropped a bit and he has at least 36 points on DraftKings in six straight races and he’s finished top ten in five straight races. Historically, this is his worst track if we’re looking at him simply from a finishing position angle. But he finished 30th and 35th in his last two races here so those numbers are dragging the average finish down. In the 12 races prior he had seven finishes in the top five including a pair of wins. Update: This is a good starting spot for Crafton and I probably would still to just playing him in Cash while mixing in some shares in GPP's. The truck looked very loose and he struggled with the handling during his qualifying lap. I still think he can get a top ten out of this ride but he'll be popular. I might pivot to Stewart Friesen over him instead.

Ty Majeski ($8,300) Ty Majeski has finished in the top five in three straight races and for some reason DraftKings decided to drop his price tag down about $600. The crazy thing is that the last three races have been Darlington, Kansas, and Texas. They’re not all identical but they can be labeled as intermediates, which is what they’re racing on once again this week. In his last two Truck races at Charlotte he’s finished 7th and 8th. There is also the added fact that Majeski has had speed and can be considered a dark horse for dominator points, especially if he qualifies well which he has been doing of late. Update: Majeski went and qualified on the pole. The bad news? Zane Smith is starting P2. Remember what we said about the polesitter not being a lock at Charlotte? That looks like it could be the case tonight.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100) I still have my concerns about the equipment, but he’s turned a corner of late with this stretch of 1.5-mile tracks. In 2022, he’s finished in the top ten in three intermediate tracks. We won’t count Atlanta because it now runs as a superspeedway hybrid track and isn’t your typical intermediate track anymore. But he’s had solid performances at Vegas, Kansas, and last week at Texas. The best part is the price tag hasn’t really jumped. If he starts outside the top 15, I’m very interested given the upside on these tracks. Update: Qualified P10 which is a little high. Need to move up and finish P7 roughly to return value, but he's shown he can do so on intermediates.

Tyler Ankrum ($7,900) He hasn't been a great play the last few weeks, but he's starting P26 which is the farthest back he's started all season. He's gotten the most out of the HRE equipment. I like him a good amount to possibly finish 16th-18th.

Derek Kraus ($7,700) It was a toss-up between Kraus and Tanner Gray, who is just $100 cheaper. I’ll be playing both but I’ll give Kraus the attention here. He’s only raced Charlotte twice, but has finished 16th and 8th. The problem with Kraus is that he’s usually starting too high in the top 15 to warrant a ton of confidence in playing him. That typically means he’s either going backward or, at best, he finishes around where he starts. So I like the play from a leverage standpoint, but if Gray qualifies worse then I may pivot my exposure to him. Update: Kraus is starting P16 while Gray is starting P6. Kraus is arguably the safer play this week and one I'll try and play a good amount of in GPP's.

Austin Wayne Self ($7,100) AWS is always in play for me if he's starting outside the top 25. That means he is still risky. Hell, he's risky no matter where he starts, but I like him for GPP's and don't hate him for Cash games. In six races at Charlotte he's finished 21st or better in five of them.

Tate Fogleman ($6,900) I don’t love the price point for Fogleman, but if he’s starting pretty far back then it’s hard to find many drivers in this range that we feel good about. I don’t have too much faith in the drivers priced below $5,300 but if any of them start dead last and can’t get you negative PD, then they’re worth consideration. As for Fogleman, he grabbed a top 20 at Charlotte in 2020 but a rear gear problem forced him out of last year’s race. But so far this year he’s done well on 1.5-mile tracks. He finished 12th at Vegas, 20th at Kansas, and 22nd at Texas where he gained at least seven spots of PD in each race. $6,900 is where I usually throw in a “nice” but truthfully it does seem a bit high for a driver like Fogleman. Update: Starting a little too high at P21. I don't think I'm going to play him very much.

Hailie Deegan ($6,500) Deegan is starting dead last and can't get you negative PD. I don't quite know the specifics but it sounded like something was leaking in the right rear so they had to take it behind the wall and couldn't qualify. I'll play some shares, but not a ton. Hailie Deegan “chalk” is likely not a good thing.

Timmy Hill ($6,300) Hill’s resume on intermediates is pretty decent, but not necessarily safe. He grabbed a top 20 last week at Texas and a few weeks ago at Darlington. Even earlier in the year at Vegas he finished 19th. In his last three Charlotte races with his own team he’s finished 18th, 22nd, and 16th. And even when he finished 22nd he started P33 so he collected PD. He could be pretty popular if he qualifies poorly. But if he stays clean he’s in play for another top 20 finish. Update: Starting P30. Very playable.

Jesse Little ($5,900) You pretty much know what you’re signing up for with Little. He’s $5,900 and you’re hoping he’s a cheap source of PD with a solid finish. In three previous races at Charlotte (also in poor equipment) he’s finished in the top 20 in all of them. In two races in the Xfinity Series he has another pair of top 20 finishes here. And by writing him up, I’m probably condemning him to finish P32 so that would be just my luck. But I like the resume here and he’s looked like a top 20 driver at times this year. Update: Starting P14. He beat JHN in qualifying. I don't get it. He likely gets passed early, but it's all about where he finishes. I won't play a ton of him but he's a great contrarian option if he holds his position.

Brennan Poole ($5,400) The value tier is very rough. I know this write-up is a little short on value plays, but in looking at the names this week I don’t have a ton of faith in a lot of these guys. But Brennan Poole is someone I don’t mind paying down to in the hopes he can just go out and get 20-25 points. Intermediate/1.5-mile tracks are his more preferred style of track. He had a pair of top 20’s on Atlanta’s old configuration. He also has an average finish of 20.0 at Charlotte but that’s due to a runner-up finish three years ago. He finished 12th in 2020 in both Kansas races, and he now has an average finish of 16.5 at Texas. I don’t really know what to make of it because Poole and his equipment have been tough to rely on this year and he likely finishes multiple laps down. He’s a decent driver, but is just in awful equipment. If you want a cheap, low-owned GPP pivot then I may throw in some shares of Max Gutierrez for a $200 discount. We don’t know too much about him but he has some experience in ARCA and I imagine he likely gets passed early. But he’s in similar equipment to Austin Wayne Self. Update: I wish he was starting outside the top 30, but I can tolerate P28. Don't love any of these dumpster diving options this week. It's quite ugly down here in the basement.

Other Value Options: I don’t really have any. In looking at the slate, it feels like we’ll have lineup trains depending on how much exposure people have to Kyle Busch. Think back to what I said in Tate Fogleman’s section: if any of these cheap drivers are starting on the last row and can’t kill us with negative PD then we can go there and hope they can just move up a few spots by default. Most lineups that automatically plug in Kyle Busch will likely be targeting Timmy Hill and/or Jesse Little for salary relief. But let’s see how qualifying shakes out and if we can add a few of these bargain drivers to our player pool for tonight’s race (but also keep in mind some of them likely won’t qualify on speed). 

Example Lineups

Example Lineups will be posted in Discord no later than 7:30pm ET.

 

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