Once again, Saturday’s EPL DFS slate is drastically different between the two sites. Tottenham travels to red-hot Brentford in the last game, where Christian Eriksen will face his former team. Tottenham had been a great source of fantasy points prior to laying an egg against Brighton, and I expect them to rebound at least to some degree.
In the early games, Manchester City is a huge favorite at home against Watford. Depending on how the starting lineups shake out, one viable strategy could be cramming as many City players into your lineup as possible. That being said, don’t ignore the other games. Newcastle could rotate their lineup against Norwich, who has allowed the most goals in the Premier League. Leicester and Aston Villa are both in the top half of the league in goals allowed, so there could be fireworks in that game as well. Good luck!
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Tim Krul
NOR
NEW
4400
5.58
9
9.12
I understand why Newcastle is +115 to win this game on the road, but its not like Newcastle is some juggernaut. Only Norwich has scored fewer goals on the road than Newcastle. Krul is averaging 11.1 DK fantasy points in his last four games, and among teams in the DK slate, only Manchester City has allowed more saves than Newcastle.
Ederson
MCI
WAT
5900
9.22
14
14.52
Manchester City is -205 to win and keep a clean sheet. Tottenham is the only other team on the slate who is favored to win, and they are +195 to win and keep a clean sheet. Just like Wednesday, this is pretty clearly a good slate to pay up for Ederson.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Gabriel Jesus
MCI
WAT
7900
9.06
17
13.05
Assuming Kevin De Bruyne starts, Jesus looks like the best value in the Manchester City lineup. He has 2.75 shots and 1.56 chances created per start.
Harry Kane
TOT
BRE
20
20.79
I might pay the extra dollar for Son, especially in tournaments, but Kane is safer and he is probably the better value. Kane was the only Spur to show up against Brighton, creating at least two chances for the fifth consecutive game. Kane has gone four games without a goal but he has five assists in that span, and we know the goals will return sooner than later.
Ayoze Perez
LEI
AVL
5200
4.78
11
8.42
His price went up $1400 on DK after his assist against Newcastle, but he still looks like the best budget forward on either site. His 2.91 chances created per 90 minutes is second only to Kevin De Bruyne among players who have played at least 160 minutes.
Raheem Sterling
MCI
WAT
9300
12.05
19
17.58
Sterling was held in check by Liverpool his last time out but he averaged 2.9 crosses, 1.4 chances created and 1.9 shots in his last seven games before that. He is arguably the safest player for DraftKings outside of Kevin DeBruyne and his forward eligibility only adds to his value.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Christian Eriksen
BRE
TOT
16
19.20
Eriksen has at least 19.3 fantasy points in four straight games, averaging 2.3 chances created in that span. He could have some extra adrenaline against his former team, which would make up for a pretty tough matchup.
Jack Grealish
MCI
WAT
5700
9.78
17
13.06
Grealish has nine chances created in his last three starts, and if there was ever a time to convert one or two of those into assists, it is at home against Watford. There is a reason he is so cheap, but he is worth a shot, especially in tournaments.
Dejan Kulusevski
TOT
BRE
17
17.24
Kulusevski is coming off a disappointing home performance against Brighton but he still has three goals and six assists in 10 starts for Spurs. Kulusevski is probably a better GPP play but with 1.8 chances created per start, he is worthy of cash game consideration.
Kevin De Bruyne
MCI
WAT
10000
17.33
22
23.25
He is by far the safest player on either slate. There are probably better options for tournaments, but De Bruyne should be in all cash lineups.
Jacob Murphy
NEW
NOR
5100
4.74
11
7.02
Newcastle is playing its third game in a week, so this could be a good place to find some cheap starters. I was wrong about Murphy starting on Wednesday but with Ryan Fraser out, there is definitely an opportunity for Murphy. Murphy had at least 7.1 DK fantasy points in four straight starts in February and March and this is obviously a great matchup.
Bruno Guimaraes
NEW
NOR
7400
9.13
15
13.33
I don't know how you keep him out of tournament lineups, especially on FanDuel. Guimaraes has two goals an assist and three chances created in his last two games. He seems to have clearly found his form with his new team, and I certainly wouldn't be against him at Norwich.
Allan Saint-Maximin
NEW
NOR
6800
9.15
18
12.40
He hasn't had an attacking return since mid-January, and he is almost certainly due. Perhaps more importantly, he is finally starting to send in some crosses in addition to taking shots and creating the occasional chance. He is a nice forward for DK cash lineups but he clearly has a lot of potential as well.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Christian Kabasele
WAT
MCI
2600
1.85
7
8.78
I have no idea why he is so cheap on FanDuel. He has double-digit FD fantasy points in all seven starts this season. He is a must-play for cash games, and he probably belongs in GPP lineups as well.
Mads Bech Sorensen
BRE
TOT
7
7.48
Bech Sorensen has double-digit fantasy points in three straight games, including 70 minutes off the bench at Watford. I wish he relied a little bit less on creating chances, but it doesn't take a whole lot to provide value at his price.
Ashley Young
AVL
LEI
3800
4.98
7
6.37
With Lucas Digne out for most of the remaining season, Ashley Young is a must-start on DraftKings until his price goes up. Young is averaging 6.9 DK fantasy points in his last four starts, which is as much as defenders who cost $1000 more.
Javier Manquillo
NEW
NOR
3800
4.47
7
8.49
Manquillo isn't what we would call good, but Newcastle's defensive injuries appear to have forced him back into action. Numerous one-minute bench appearances have kept his price and FPPG artificially low, but he is a solid fantasy play when he starts, especially for cash games.
Joao Cancelo
MCI
WAT
7100
13.36
15
18.00
If we get as many cheap starters Saturday as we expect, it could be quite easy to pay up for a defender. Cancelo is by far the best target, especially in tournaments. He has at least 9.3 DK fantasy points in nine consecutive games, and he will almost certainly extend the streak against Watford.
