Welcome MLB and fantasy baseball fans! If you're looking for some top plays on Underdog Fantasy for tonight's Major League Baseball action, we've got you covered. There are plenty of MLB player props for Thursday, May 5th worth considering. We entered the month of May without a lot of offense across the MLB, but strikeouts league-wide offensively were down too. A lot of outs are being made via contact and, thanks to that fact, we’ve arrived at a couple of strikeouts props for MLB pitchers tonight. Let's take a look at some of my favorite predictions and props for Thursday’s baseball slate on Underdog Fantasy!
MLB Underdog Player Props May 5
Tarik Skubal – UNDER 4.5 strikeouts
Tarik Skubal is off to a good start to his 2022 campaign, but the strikeouts haven’t exactly been ideal for his fantasy managers. Skubal has twice hit the over on this mark, but in his other two outings, he had just four and three punchouts. Things aren’t going to get any easier against the Astros, who rank 27th in K-rate against left-handed pitching at a 19.3% clip.
In 2020, Skubal had a 27.6% K-rate, followed by a 25.9% mark last season. This year, it’s at 22.7%. He’s pitching to a lot more contact and inducing a LOT of groundballs. He’s sitting at a 50% groundball rate for a pitcher that was at 27% in 2019 and 38% in 2020.
Something that could hurt Skubal is how many pitches the Astros see against left-handed pitching. Houston has the MLB's third-highest walk rate against southpaws, which definitely impacts how long Skubal will be out there for this game.
Chris Archer – UNDER 4.5 strikeouts
It’s 2022. We just haven’t seen the peak version of Chris Archer in some time and the strikeouts have not really been there thus far. Through four starts, he’s only hit the over once and hasn’t pitched too deep into games. He’s yet to make it through five innings in a start this season.
Archer has a 25.9% K-rate for his career, yet this year it’s down to a 21.2% mark – which is his lowest since 2014. The Orioles have struck out 24% of the time against right-handed pitching this year, but it’s been down to 23.2% over the last two weeks.
The under is a -135 on DK Sportsbook tonight, which is obviously something I agree with. Archer’s swinging-strike rate is down, as is his called-strike rate. He’s not missing as many bats these days and that’s why we’re riding with the under.
Fantasy Baseball 2022
- Fantasy Baseball Daily Round-Up
- MLB Injury Report
- MLB Fantasy Baseball Podcast
- Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Waiver Wire: Give Your Roster a Power Surge with Rowdy Tellez