I hope everyone is having an awesome holiday season! With five games on today’s DFS NBA slate, let’s play some basketball! Some of the heavy hitters from the 10 teams who will be out for the festivities today include Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant and Trae Young. We’ll have to see if Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy enough to give it a full go after being cleared from the league’s COVID protocols. Looking at the sports-books, the highest over/under’s for the day include Nets/Lakers at 224.5 and Celtics/Bucks at 220.5. Here’s today’s DFS NBA Starting-5.
PG James Harden (10200FD/10700DK/48Y!): This matchup sets up nicely for Harden because Kevin Durant is still out and Russell Westbrook is a horrible defender. The Lakers rank 24th at defending point guards and Harden has hit the 20-point mark in scoring in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s produced four straight double-doubles. With a high over/under for the game and the pace working in the Nets favor for this one, Harden is worth the hefty price of admission this evening. Both the Lakers and the Nets rank in the top 10 in pace of play. He’s shot over 47 percent from the floor in 2 of his last 3 games. Harden also dropped 11 or more dimes in 2 of his last 3 battles. He pulls down about eight rebounds and he grabs 1.4 steals per contest. He should take between 17-22 shots tonight and he’s looking at a near 35 percent usage.
SG: Jalen Brunson (7400FD/7600DK/26Y!): The Mavericks are missing a lot of their backcourt for this game and even with the spread being in double figures, Dallas doesn’t have the luxury to limit players. Even Sterling Brown looks appealing in this matchup, but Brunson should be the prioritized scorer if Kristaps Porzingis sits for a third straight game. Even if he does play, it should lead to more assists from Brunson. It’s a sizable pace boost for Dallas, the slowest team in the league, and Brunson has scored at least 18 points in each of his last 4 games. He’s been shooting an impressive 49.7 percent from the floor and he’s exceeded that percentage 3 times in his last 5 games. He’s dished no fewer than eight assists in four of his last five and he’s grabbing about four rebounds per contest. He’s taken 15-plus shots in 3 of his last 4 games and even though it’s not the best matchup on paper, Brunson has a safe enough floor tonight with the Mavs roster depleted.
SF Jaylen Brown (7800FD/9400DK/28Y!): Brown’s been heating up over his last couple of games hitting the 30-point mark in scoring in both of his last 2 outings. He’s shot 50 percent from the field in 2 of his last 4 games and we should see him play around 35 minutes today. He’s produced three multi-steal games in his last five and is swiping 1.2 balls per outing. If Marcus Smart ends up sitting for this game Brown can find himself bringing up the ball more. He’s actually contributed at least three assists in seven of his last eight games. The Bucks are a bottom-five team in the league at defending shooting guards and Brown has been a reliable rebounder pulling down 5.3 per outing. The pace also benefits the Celtics in this matchup. If Antetokounmpo ends up suiting up, expect the Celtics to rely on the perimeter play a bit more and Brown has nailed four-plus treys in three of his last four games.
PF: John Collins (8500FD/7800DK/35Y!): Collins is going to have to lead the way offensively for the Hawks today as Trae Young is still out. The Knicks play horrible defense in the post and with Clint Capela also sidelined, Collins should play deep into this contest and he should take 13-16 shots in this game. New York is a bottom 10 team at defending big men. Collins has shot nearly 56 percent from the field and 42 percent from beyond the arc. He’s produced three double-doubles in his last four games scoring at least 20 points in all 3 of those battles. Collins blocks 1.2 shots per game and he’s grabbed steals in 2 of his last 3 outings. With the roster that will be flying into Madison Square Garden for Atlanta, Collins see’s a four percent usage bump. The pace of play may be on the slow side, but because the Hawks are missing a lot of shooters, Collins is a safe bet for today’s game. He was able to beat up Orlando in the post twice in recent games and the Knicks aren’t much better in the post.
C: Rudy Gobert (9200FD/9200DK/39Y!): There is a slight bit of risk that comes with Gobert because of Dallas being underdogs by double-digits according to the spreads across sports-books, but because Dallas doesn’t have the size or strength to keep Gobert out of the post, the question comes to mind if he necessarily needs 35 minutes to hit value at his current price-point? We’re talking about a center that has grabbed no fewer than 17 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games. Gobert was able to score 50 DraftKings points against the Clippers playing just 27 minutes when they squared off a week and a half ago. He’s taken 10-plus shots and scored 20 or more points in his last 2 games. As stated above Porzingis could sit tonight and that would leave Dallas without the size to have a chance to fend off Gobert. He also blocks 2.3 shots per game and swatted away 11 shots total over his last 3 games.