For the first time in three years, F1 is down under for the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne. The track at Albert Park has undergone some changes in those three years. Not only have some corners disappeared, namely the chicane that was Turns 9 and 10, but some corners have been reshaped and reprofiled to make them wider and more flowing. Overall, the track has become a better circuit for overtaking than it previously has been. Though that being said, it’s been a while since the pole-sitter has won the Australian GP.
Originally, the plan for the race was to have four DRS zones on the track. However, 15 minutes before final practice on Saturday (in Australia) they removed one of the DRS zones. That being said, there should still be plenty of chances to overtake using pure speed and outbreaking others into corners. During practice and even qualifying, there were several tricky spots on the track for the drivers to manage with the main culprit being Turn 11. Watch for the tight spots on the track and some of the newer corners to be hectic spots during the race.
Part of the change to the track has been to repave the Albert Park road surface which is leading to not very much tire degradation over longer runs. Expect the soft tires to be the pick of the day for the teams, though they will likely start on the medium tires. Once they’re enough laps into the race to make it to the end on tires, they’ll swap to the soft tires and everyone should pick up about a half a second in lap times over the mediums. There are a few teams that had trouble with porpoising on the fast, sweeping straights which has cost them time, but the bigger issue has been those teams not having the grip in the cars to stabilize in the corners. While we have the same names near the front of the grid once more, there are some interesting strategies for builds this week based on what we’ve seen in practice and qualifying.
Captain’s Spot
Any driver listed in the captain spot can also be played in the regular drivers spots as well.
Charles Leclerc - P1 - $15,900
Leclerc is on the pole for the second-time this year and it was a heck of a lap that put him there. Just how fast was it? Nearly a third of a second better than Max Verstappen. If he can hold the lead, the laps led will rack up and in the captain spot, that’s some nice bonus points. Perhaps the other thing in our favor is the history of pole-sitters here and not winning and it might have some off of Leclerc a bit more than they should be. The price is high but not fully prohibitive and should still pay dividends including likely beating his teammate as well.
Carlos Sainz Jr. - P9 - $14,700
Speaking of Leclerc’s teammate, Sainz is also a good captain spot play. Yes, even starting P9. Why? Well he ran in the top-three much of practice and simply had one bad lap in qualifying. That should give him spot vs. grid position bonus points in spades if he can get back into the top-three. There’s not a lot of hope that he’ll get the defeated teammate bonus but he could uncork the fastest lap of the race as well trying to move up through the field and snag an extra World Championship point.
Fernando Alonso - P10 - $8,700
Alonso has been on flying laps all weekend it seems. It doesn’t matter the practice session, Alonso had some of the fastest times in all three. He’d have challenged for the pole in qualifying if he didn’t have a hydraulic issue in Turn 11. That will have him start P10 but have the speed to get inside the top-10 fairly easy, assuming the issue has been fixed. He will be starting behind his teammate in the grid but, should have the speed to finish ahead of him by race end, getting him bonus points. He could very well be the second-most popular captain play behind Leclerc at this starting spot and price.
Daniel Ricciardo - P7 - $7,800
It’s a home race for DR3. He hails from Australia and the crowd just goes wild for him. That can really help boost at driver’s confidence during a race and add speed to the car. It’s been a long time since we’ve felt comfy playing Ricciardo as last year was so-so from him with McLaren, but this week, we pounce. If he can in fact beat Lando Norris, there’s bonus points there too. He’s a riskier captain play but at his price point he’s worth it in bigger GPPs.
Drivers
Max Verstappen - P2 - $10,800
Verstappen hasn’t looked comfortable in the car all weekend but is still sitting P2 in the grid. If he gets comfy and finds a touch more speed, he could be in a spot to win and lead a chunk of laps in the process. The battles between he and Leclerc have been great to this point, but if there’s one advantage the Red Bull’s seem to have, it’s straight line speed and that should help him this week. The price is too high to warrant a captain play, but in the regular driver spot he should still produce enough points to bring value.
Valterri Bottas - P12 - $8,000
Bottas ended his streak of appearances in Q3 when he failed to post a top-10 qualifying time. What does that mean for us? We get value. He ran inside the top-eight basically all weekend before qualifying P12 for the race. He’s also run way better than his teammate all weekend as well so there’s a defeated teammate bonus just waiting to be grabbed by him. Let’s also not forget that he’s the defending race winner here, yes different team and different layout, but he’s known to be fast when racing down under.
Esteban Ocon - P8 - $7,000
Ocon has been playing second fiddle to his teammate, Alonso, most of this weekend, except in qualifying. He out qualified his teammate, though only because of the issue that Alonso had an not necessarily on out right speed. If the issue crops up again for Alonso or Ocon can manage to stay in front of him, there are bonus points to be had. Ocon has also run a tad better than P8 in most practices this weekend as well which means there could be some hope of a spot vs grid position bonus, though slim.
Lando Norris - P4 - $6,400
What a resurgent weekend it’s been for the McLaren camp and that includes Norris starting P4. In fact, if we look at FP3, Norris ran the fastest lap with everyone running essentially qualifying laps. If McLaren has in fact figured out how to get pace in their cars, we could see the Norris we saw for most of last year. If he can hold on to this spot, or even move back a spot, he brings nice finishing position points and should be in line to beat his teammate Ricciardo as well. That’s a cheap way to snag some nice bonus points.
Sebestian Vettel - P17 - $3,600
It’s been a rough weekend for Seb. Firstly, it’s his first race back from Covid and secondly, they’ve been unable to keep the car on the track for long periods of time either. Whether it was an engine blow-up in FP1 that cost him FP2 or sliding off the track in FP3. It hasn’t looked good. So why is he here? Well, he’s cheap and still has skills when on the track. Starting P17 gives him a shot to move up a decent amount of spots. Hulkenburg started P17 in Saudi Arabia and moved up to P12 by race’s end. He’s also starting ahead of his teammate and should finish there for a five-point bonus.
Constructors Plays
Ferrari - $11,400
How can we not go with Ferrari again? I know it’s getting tiresome, but hey how are we supposed to avoid the best team on the gird? We even got a bonus from them this week. Sainz qualifying P9 gives us some spot vs. grid position upside as we expect him to move up through the field several spots and perhaps snag a podium finish with his teammate. Laps led should come in bunches from Leclerc being on the pole and having the fastest car nearly all weekend. Red Bull is intriguing for just a touch less but we’ll need either Verstappen or Checo to snag the lead and get laps led to boost their value.
Alpine - $7,000
The duo of Alonso and Ocon have been fast all weekend with Alonso looking like the fastest car at times. They’re starting further back in the grid than they should be due to some issues in qualifying but that just means there’s upside here. If Alonso can find his top-five form from practice and Ocon does as well, there’s major spot vs. grid position points and finish position point upgrades to be had. You can easily pair Alpine and one of the two drivers in the lineup together without it being prohibitive for the rest of the build.
McLaren - $6,400
Is McLaren back? It certainly seems like this could be a weekend that turns their season around. They’ve been in the top-10 consistently all weekend and their qualifying spots put them squarely in a spot to get the top-10 bonus. It’s a cheap points grab here and not much more. It’s hard to see spot vs grid position points coming their way but you never know. Even if they just finish where they’re starting, that’s 25 points which is pretty nice value.
Aston Martin - $3,800
It’s been an absolutely miserable weekend for Aston Martin to be sure. Lance Stroll had a weird incident in wrecking with Nicholas Latifi and Vettel just couldn’t get on track very much at all. So why are they in the playbook then? Upside. If they can in fact stay on track and show some speed during the race run, there are positions to be gained in the grid for them. While they won’t be getting us a double top-10 bonus, they can get us solid spots vs grid position points and save us some money to get more expensive drivers in the lineup.