Today's MLB PrizePicks player prop board has a few plays that I am keyed in on with notable matchups for the Reds Tyler Mahle against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers righty Tony Gonsolin against the Angels. I'm also targeting a pair of pitchers who have struggled on the road this season as they run up against some top-tier offenses in baseball.

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts

We were on this exact play in Mahle's last start which was also against the Diamondbacks and he did not disappoint, finishing with a season-high 10 strikeouts over six innings of work. The DBacks have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball this season at 24.7% and against right-handed pitching, it's even a tick higher at 25.0%. Mahle himself has a 25.8% strikeout rate on the season with a K/9 of 10.1.

 

Tony Gonsolin Over 16.5 Outs

I always get a little nervous taking a player prop that involves a Dodgers starting pitcher because Dave Roberts is an absolute wild card when it comes to usage. Gonsolin was one of the pitchers that seemingly always got the early pull from games with a tight pitch count but it seems like he is finally settling into a nice groove, having completed six-innings in five straight starts while averaging around 90 pitches per outing. Tonight he faces an Angels lineup that definitely has some guys to worry about in Ohtani, Trout and Walsh but on the season they have the league's highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 25.9%t and are hitting just .243 off righties. Over the past two weeks the strikeout rate is actually up to 28.5% while the batting average is just .224 with a .286 wOBA. Gonsolin has been nails this season, posting a 7-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.

 

Jordan Lyles Over 3.0 Earned Runs Allowed

On paper this one really seems like a no-brainer. Lyles is a notorious gas can and in his seven road starts this season there has been just one instance where he did not allow at least three earned runs. Today he faces a Blue Jays offense that leads the league in average and is second in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks while tieing for the most runs scored during that period. 

 

Adrian Houser Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

I've said it over and over again this season that Adrian Houser is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road and lucky for us he finds himself pitching in New York tonight against the Mets. In Houser's five road starts this season he has allowed three or more runs in three of those outings. The Mets this season have the league's best home batting average against right-handed pitching at .282 while ranking among the top 10 teams in OPS and wOBA. Houser has a 5.32 ERA on the road this season with a 1.61 WHIP.

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