Today's MLB PrizePicks player prop board only has a handful of plays due to the short slate but that doesn't mean we don't have plays to target. Today I'm looking at a lefty pitcher looking to bounce back after a tough start and a pair of hitter props as they find themselves in favorable matchups. 

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Martín Pérez Over 4.0 Strikeouts

All good things must come to an end and so we saw Perez get lit up in his last start, allowing seven runs on 12 hits over five innings against the White Sox. With the bad start behind him, I look for a nice bounce-back outing today against the Tigers. This strikeout prop is pretty low for Perez who has had at least four strikeouts in 11 of his 12 starts this season while going over 4.0 strikeouts in six of those starts. The Tigers are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeout rate against left-handed pitching as they rank 14th in baseball with a 22.4% strikeout rate. I'm expecting Perez to pitch deep enough into this game that he gets the strikeouts we are looking for.

 

George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts

No team is striking out more against right-handed pitching right now than the Los Angeles Angels as they have a league-worst 29.9% strikeout rate over the past two weeks. Overall this season they also rank dead last with a 26.1% strikeout rate against righties. If you look at the box score for Kirby you likely won't be too impressed by his strikeout numbers but a deeper look will really tell the story as Kirby has drawn some pretty tough matchups against teams that rank towards the bottom of the league in strikeout rate.  This matchup provides a huge boost in strikeout potential for the youngster to take advantage of. 

 

Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases

I don't often dip my toe in the hitter props but the Phillies offense is rolling, Rhys Hoskins is on fire and today they face known gas can Patrick Corbin who has a 6.65 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over 13 starts this season. Against left-handed pitching this season Hoskins is hitting .297 with an OPS of 1.043. He has 11 extra-base hits on the year against southpaws. Hoskins has at least two hits in five of the last six games which is what we are looking for today if he doesn't get the total bases with one swing of the bat which is something he is also more than capable of doing. On average today the sportsbooks list Hoskins over 1.5 Total Bases as a -130 favorite. 

 

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases

We are looking at the likely front runner for American League MVP through the first two and a half month of the season. Judge is hitting .313 with 25 home runs on the season. He homered yesterday off lefty Shane McClanahan and will face yet another lefty today in Josh Fleming who will open the game for the Rays. Righties are hitting .362 within OPS of .993 off of Fleming this season.

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