Happy Fourth of July Weekend, FAmily! The 2022 NASCAR season celebrates America’s birthday in style with some road course racing at Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin! The NASCAR Xfinity Series is set for 45 laps around one of the longest pure road courses in America on Saturday. Kyle Larson is in the field and he won three road courses a year ago in the Cup Series. We have 11 races left until the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs begin so there are plenty of chances for drivers to win their way into the playoffs with only six drivers locked in at the moment. However, for many other drivers they will need to point their way in if necessary. Saturday’s Henry 180 kicks off what should be a fun and straightforward weekend for NASCAR DFS. Don’t miss out on all this weekend’s content including the NASCAR DFS Podcast and the NASCAR DFS Kwik Trip 250 Race Guide. Now let’s turn our attention to the top NASCAR DFS Picks for today’s race.

Now for those of you who don’t know the name of the game for road courses, the DFS aspect is to mostly target PD and finishing position drivers. This race has just 45 laps on Saturday broken into 10-10-25 lap segments. Road America is LONG at over four miles in length. Laps take forever at this course. At the absolute most we have 31.5 dominator points available and we won’t get that many points. With cautions, that number will tick below 30 points easily. Now you can’t solely target drivers offering a ton of PD. There will be drivers who bust and some that just fail to move through the field. So if you can take some chances on a few drivers that start in the teens and can finishes eight-to-ten spots ahead of where they started then that’s a good route and maybe play one driver starting in the top ten. 

Kyle Busch won this race a year ago and he wasn’t even in the optimal lineup. So don’t feel like you need to cram in the most expensive driver to target dominator points. If the polesitter collects every single dominator lap in the first two stages, that’s only 14 points. But last year’s race didn’t see as many drivers move through the field as we thought. However, the logic remains the same in my eyes and given how practice and qualifying shook out on Friday, you can easily build a lineup and leave money on the table. Don’t feel like you need to spend every dollar on Saturday. Here are the results from practice on Friday…

PRACTICE RESULTS

DRIVER POOL

Kyle Larson ($11,800; Starting P1) I will not be playing a lot of shares of Kyle Larson. Keep in mind, this is just practice for him but there is still some win equity. This race means much more to plenty of other drivers. On a road course this price tag truly isn’t worth looking at. I am only playing GPP’s on Saturday so if I’m looking to take down a tournament, you know I’m going to fade the most expensive driver in the field especially when he’s on the pole. You have to consider DraftKings’ scoring. Larson starts on the pole so there are no PD points to gain. So if he starts on the pole and wins the race that’s 45 points. Additionally, there are only 45 laps in this race which means 31.5 dominator points. Larson’s ceiling is literally 76.5 points. If he hits that then yeah, he’s easily optimal. But we also know he won’t hit that. 76.5 points means he has to win and collect every single dominator point available. That simply will not happen. And if he goes backward, he loses points with every spot. Personally, I’m likely playing him in two lineups on the off chance he can go wire-to-wire. On a road course it’s just simply not worth it with likely less than 30 dominator points available. This is an easy decision for me. You can very well play him if you so choose even if it’s just in 10% of your builds. Truthfully, it’s not hard to build lineups with both Larson as a potential dominator and A.J. Allmendinger who will come through the field with win equity. But we know how to attack road courses and with the most expensive driver on the pole, he only has one narrow path to being optimal. I’m basically including him in the Playbook to avoid getting “Why isn’t Larson in the Playbook” questions. He won three road courses last year in the Cup Series and this is a Hendrick chassis from a year ago that was specifically used for road courses. But strictly from a lineup theory standpoint I think I’m going to take a firm stand.

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,300; Starting P38) The Playbook truly starts with A.J. Allmendinger. That’s the first driver we plug into Cash lineups and most of our GPP builds. This is easy. Allmendinger is the best road course driver in the field. He’s won the other two road course races this year including Portland, which even in bad weather, he still worked his way through the field and won the race. Strangely enough, that race and this race have some comparisons. For Portland, Dinger was guaranteed a top ten qualifying spot but he said in an interview following qualifying they were going to the rear so that shifted ownership off him. At least for this race we know the car was fast in practice and he’s starting from the rear with speed. I’ll be playing at least 60% of Dinger in my Happy Hour builds, but realistically that’ll probably settle around 80%. He’s a lock in Cash games where he’ll likely be 90-95% owned. Ty Gibbs will be a popular pivot off Kyle Larson. I’m playing two shares of Gibbs but I don’t love the play. If he wrecks or goes backward then he’s not optimal but he does have a couple road course wins in the Xfinity Series and if he finishes well then he could be optimal. Similarly, you can get Noah Gragson some love but he’s not a great road course driver in this series but he offers more PD than Gibbs and Larson. Keep in mind, Gragson took on some damage to the car in practice, but sounds like it was easily fixable.

Tyler Reddick ($9,700; Starting P9) I think Reddick is back in play after being an absolute dud last week. He has some PD on his side and the speed looks to have returned to the 48-car for Big Machine Racing. I honestly can’t explain what the hell happened to him last week but the speed is back and he’s cheaper than some other drivers who don’t have the PD upside that he does.

Austin Hill ($9,500; Starting P10) Hill is kind of a sneaky road course play on Saturday. He’s provided a great floor all season long, but I don’t anticipate a huge ownership share on Saturday. He’s starting in the top ten but has top five upside. He was third at Portland a month ago and was the runner-up at COTA. The sample size on road courses is also pretty small from his time in the Truck Series but he did win Watkins Glen last year.

Josh Berry ($9,200; Starting P16) This is the cheapest Berry has been the last three months. Truthfully, he’s not a great road ringer considering there isn’t a large sample size. However, the price tag is good enough to where we can warrant playing him this week and aim for a good finish. He could be optimal with a top ten but he’s almost guaranteed to be optimal with a top five. It’s also worth noting the car was garbage in practice so we don’t need to go overboard with exposure. You can also consider Justin Allgaier for $1,000 more who is starting next to Berry, but Allgaier wasn’t great in practice either, yet we’ve seen him struggle in practice and then turn it around for a really solid performance come racy day. He at least has a larger sample size on road courses compared to Berry.

Daniel Hemric ($8,800; Starting P22) I’m not really sure what the hell happened with Hemric’s qualifying lap, but he’s starting outside the top 20 after posting a top six practice lap. He has mixed results on road courses throughout his career, but he was sixth at Portland a month ago and he was runner-up at Road America with Joe Gibbs Racing last year. I do worry a little about Kaulig’s speed but he’s a great play if he finishes top ten.

Brandon Jones ($8,700; Starting P14) I really like Jones from a contrarian perspective for Saturday’s race. He has top five upside and hell he does have some win equity. Earlier this year he started 38th at COTA and finished 18th and then at Portland he started P22 and finished 11th. Last year he had four finishes in the top six on road courses. And with so many drivers across the pricing spectrum I could see a narrative where Jones is under 20% owned in GPP’s and if that’s the case I may be overweight just slightly at roughly 25-30%. There’s always risk with Jones but a top ten returns 38 points and a top five finish yields 48 points and these numbers are provided without dominator points in mind.

John Hunter Nemechek ($8,600; Starting P35) Pretty easy spot to plug JHN into your builds, whether they be Cash or Tournament lineups. With the Camping World Truck Series off this week we’ll see JHN run the Xfinity Series for Sam Hunt Racing. In this car this year, JHN has finished 12th at Vegas, fifth at Phoenix, and fourth at Darlington. Do those tracks compare to a road course? No, but he returns 48 points with at least a top 15 finish. That’s a nice floor and we know the ceiling is much higher. The one thing keeping us from going too heavy on JHN is the fact that he was slow in practice and his Vegas odds have gotten longer which may be great to jump on for betting purposes considering the value. However, it does give me some pause for DFS. You can also look to Miguel Paludo for $100 cheaper although he doesn’t offer the PD upside of JHN. Still, Paludo is starting P25 and is in JRM equipment. He is a road course specialist that JRM brings in specifically for races like Road America, but in his last four road races in the Xfinity Series he has two top tens and two finishes outside the top 20.

Myatt Snider ($7,800; Starting P32) Snider isn’t in the best equipment, but he’s been solid on road courses and I love him for Cash games if most DFS players are throwing in JHN and Sieg based on name recognition. Snider was second at Portland despite the weather and he was sixth at COTA a few months back. If we’re looking specifically at Road America, Snider isn’t great. He was 23rd here a year ago and got caught in an accident in 2020. But he has a pair of top 15 finishes at the Roval, a pair of top 16 finishes at Indy Road Course, a pair of top 15 finishes at DRC, and he finished 15th a year ago at Watkins Glen. Those results are good enough for Cash games at this price tag. He’s not a well-known road ringer but he should easily move up from this starting spot. But in this range there are a few really good plays. Without writing up the entire field I will say I’m also mixing in Sammy Smith, Landon Cassill, and Andy Lally. You can easily spread exposure around but I do feel Snider is the safest play in this range given the starting spot. Smith is in the 18-car for JGR and he’s a road specialist, but he’s starting very high so he’s a GPP play. Cassill is a similar play to Daniel Hemric but will have less rostership. And Lally is a noted road course specialist, just not in the greatest equipment today. All four in this one write-up are well worth playing.

Ty Dillon ($7,700; Starting P26) This is a great race for Dillon to show us what he’s made of. The price tag is somewhat egregious. He’s a Cup-caliber driver running the Xfinity race and he’s below the average price tag. Dillon will be running JD Motorsports equipment which isn’t great. But we’ve seen great drivers pilot paperweights to great finishes and even wins in the lower NASCAR Series. Does he win Saturday’s race? Probably not, but he’s in play for a solid finish. He’s more of a GPP play in my eyes but a high-ceiling PD play at that.

Ryan Sieg ($7,400; Starting P27) Pretty easy play here for a sub-$8K driver. Sieg started P35 at COTA and finished 11th and started P27 at Portland and finished 16th despite the weather. Given the PD and the price tag you may think he’s a lock for Cash games. Most Cash lineups are going to start with Dinger, JHN, and Sieg given the PD. But Sieg has a very checkered resume at road courses including last year’s results: 27th at DRC, 9th at Mid-Ohio, 22nd at Road America, 18th at Watkins Glen (started P13), 32nd at Indy Road Course, and 32nd at the Charlotte Roval. So on paper he’s a good play, but he’s far from a lock. If you want to lock him into your Cash builds because he can’t kill you in Double Up’s, then I understand that logic. But you do gain a bit of leverage by finding solid plays elsewhere.

Alex Labbe ($7,000; Starting P18) I absolutely love writing up DGM drivers on road courses, especially when they may get overlooked due to other obvious PD plays. Labbe drove the car to a P5 qualifying effort at COTA but a gear problem dropped him to 36th and ended his day early. But he bounced back four weeks ago finishing top ten at Portland. In four races at the Roval he’s never finished worse than 14th but he also has a pair of top six finishes there. Labbe recorded the 11th-best practice run on Friday and qualified P18. If we were doing a practice-to-qualifying table he’d be one of the better plays on the board. I’ll be quite heavy on him for Saturday’s race but also keep in mind I’m only playing GPP’s.

Preston Pardus ($6,600; Starting P21) I like the price tag and equipment. As noted above, DGM preps their cars very well for road courses. Sadly, Dexter Bean failed to qualify otherwise we’d have multiple dirt cheap options to target. Here’s the deal, Pardus mostly gets the call on road courses and for good reason. But even he has had some poor runs. He grabbed top 15 finishes in both COTA races and he was 16th at Road America last year. I largely prefer some drivers priced below him that allow me to pay up for other drivers in the field, but I’ll try and mix Pardus into three or four Happy Hour lineups because I don’t see significant exposure on him today from the field.

Jeremy Clements ($6,500; Starting P11) Clements isn’t a Cash game play, but this is a very good GPP play if he simply holds the starting spot and maybe sneaks into the top ten. Road courses are where Clements thrives especially on a smaller team. That success hasn’t carried over to 2022. In fact, it’s been a pretty frustrating year for Clements. Road America is where Clements scored his lone Xfinity Series win back in 2017. But in his last two trips here he’s finished outside the top 25. The good news is that he showcased top ten speed in practice so the qualifying spot is justified. Very good GPP play with top ten upside that won’t carry much ownership. But if you’re building 20 lineups, I would limit exposure to maybe three or four lineups in case he is dealt some misfortunes and drops back.

Brandon Brown ($5,900; Starting P36) Brown is far too cheap for a guy who can drive this to a top 20. Unfortunately for BB he hasn’t had the magic that he had one year ago. However, he did finish top 20 at COTA and was 12th at Portland last month. He’s put up at least 36 points on DK in four straight races and given where he’s starting Saturday’s race he should easily make that five straight. All he needs to do is finished 24th for 30 points on Saturday and he’ll return 39 points with a top 20. He’s going to be the most popular pay-down option. He finished top 12 in four of the seven road courses in 2021.

Jeb Burton ($5,800; Starting P34) What a dumb price tag on Jeb Burton. This is just egregious. The equipment and team he’s on are a clear downgrade from where he was at a year ago, but sub-$6K is just incredibly stupid. Add in the fact he’s starting outside the top 30 and we’re just collectively laughing at DK’s pricing. The results the last two weeks are bad, but keep in mind the Portland race was a mess. Prior to the Portland race he was consistently running in the top 15. With that kind of speed and knowing the caliber of driver he is there’s no way he should be priced down here. His road course results haven’t been great this year and those results carry some weight considering they relate to the current car he’s in. But last year with Kaulig Racing he was fifth at DRC, tenth at COTA, 16th at Mid-Ohio, 14th at Road America, eighth at Watkins Glen, 23rd at Indy Road Course, and 13th at the Roval.

Patrick Gallagher ($4,600; Starting P33) If you need an absolute punt in this field, it’s likely Gallagher. Gallagher will run a RSS car similar to Ryan Sieg. Gallagher is no Parker Retzlaff and truthfully, I wish Retzlaff was in this race considering it would be his home track, but Gallagher did start P30 at COTA and finished 22nd. Gallagher is a regular in the sports car circuits so he has familiarity on road courses and he’s very familiar with Road America. He’s probably way too cheap based on the car he’s driving and experience. DraftKings probably priced him down this far based on not recognizing the name. He returns 25 points on DraftKings with a top 25 finish and if he finishes top 20 then that’s 36 points and he’s likely finding his way into the optimal lineup. We know the equipment is good enough for a top 20 finish. Is the driver good enough? And I think if you really want to get contrarian and take some chances, Josh Bilicki ($5,400; Starting P13) is running Alpha Prime equipment and posted the 11th-best lap in practice. He’s not worthy of a ton of exposure because he probably goes backward with so many great drivers starting behind him, but he’s one value play that could pay off as a contrarian option if he finishes roughly where he starts. Again, be mindful of the exposures and don’t go too crazy.

A Note on Kyle Weatherman: Weatherman qualified the 34-car on Friday, but Jesse Iwuji is scheduled to drive that car. I don’t know why DK hasn’t made that clear in their driver pool but it’s worth keeping an eye on. With Iwuji still scheduled there’s absolutely no reason to play Weatherman. But if there’s a late news swap that Weatherman will run then we can maybe play the Meteorologist in some builds, but he may have to go to the rear for a driver change since Iwuji is scheduled behind the wheel.

EXAMPLE LINEUPS

Example Lineups will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord one hour prior to roster lock.

 

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