Fresh off one of the biggest weekends on the 2022 NASCAR schedule, all three series are running this weekend but not at the same track. The NASCAR Xfinity Series will go road racing in Portland, Oregon (Playbook due out Saturday morning) while the Camping World Truck Series and NASCAR Cup Series head to St. Louis and run on 1.25-mile World Wide Technology Raceway. The trucks have run here plenty of times, but this is the inaugural race for the Cup Series. Fortunately, this Playbook has plenty of track history to pull from and we have comparable tracks to look at as well. But this is a fantastic weekend for NASCAR to reach a new market and I’d love to see this track land on the schedule over the next few years. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR DFS picks for Saturday afternoon’s race.

We haven’t had too many situations this season where we’ve had practice and qualifying with plenty of time to digest the starting order and practice results to break down our favorite plays. But we finally get that for Saturday’s action and I couldn’t be more pleased. We have 160 laps to account for with Saturday’s Truck race, which gives us a little over 100 dominator points to work with. Lineup construction could be difficult and it’s not a terrible idea to build lineups that make you a bit uncomfortable. Track position here is key. We have seen plenty of drivers collect dominator points early in the race only to fall back in stage three and either wreck or struggle to get back to the front. They can still be optimal, but they’ve lost their ceiling.

Let’s take a look at how previous Gateway races have played out. In 2018, Noah Gragson led 63 laps with 27 fastest laps. That’s good for 27.9 dominator points. But he also started third and finished tenth which would equate to 54.9 total points based on the current DraftKings scoring. That’s still great but losing track position in stage three capped the ceiling a bit. In that same race Grant Enfinger started on the pole and collected roughly 11 dominator points, but finished outside the top 20. The top eight finishers of that race accounted for eight laps led and 23 fastest laps.

In 2019, Christian Eckes had a similar run to Gragson. Eckes started on the pole and led 57 laps, but only had five fastest laps. That means the truck clearly wasn’t the fastest but that it was also difficult to pass. In that race, Eckes finished top five in the first two stages, but lost track position in stage three and finished 14th. Even with 50+ laps led he would’ve only scored 32.5 points based on current scoring. Grant Enfinger did collect about 20 dominator points while finishing sixth in that race so he was easily optimal. And in this particular year, the fastest laps and dominator points were a little more spread out. But again, the polesitter lost track position late in the race.

This trend held serve in 2020, the infamous year where Todd Gilliland cruised to the front early on and won the first two stages and led 76 laps with 35 fastest laps. That’s 34.75 dominator points based on current scoring. In stage three he got into it with Sheldon Creed and eventually finished outside the top 20. Now the circumstances were more unfortunate for him, but again not great for the pole sitter as Creed went on to win with less than ten dominator points. Zane Smith was the pole sitter for that race and finished seventh with 18 dominator points to post 49 points under the current format.

Creed’s 2021 performance is the only one that really sticks out in the sense that “this driver dominated and won.” He led 142 laps with 52 fastest laps and won. Austin Hill started on the pole that race and finished outside the top 20. You have to go back to Chase Briscoe in 2017 to find a pole sitter that scored a top five finish at Gateway. Does that mean I’m fading Corey Heim on Saturday? No, I’m sure I’ll play him in two or three Happy Hour builds. But given what we’ve seen and how tough it can be to pass, I will play experienced drivers who understand the important of track position in stage three.

This race also marks the first of the Triple Truck Challenge. Think of it like Dash 4 Cash, but with more emphasis on winning, rather than just finishing in the top four to qualify for the cash prize in the next race. The more races of the challenge you win, the bigger the bonus you receive as the winning driver. Because of that we are not seeing any Cup drivers run this race, which I’m perfectly fine with. If we had too many Cup drivers in this race I’d be less inclined to play DFS for this race.

Practice Results

Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,400; Starting P6) Once again a steep price to pay for JHN, but there’s evident win equity here. Since the disastrous start to the season at Daytona, Vegas, and Atlanta, JHN has rebounded nicely finishing in the top six in seven straight races. He had a forgettable run here a year ago but he has won here before. He was sixth-fastest in single-lap speed in practice, but also posted the best ten-lap average among the handful of drivers that ran ten consecutive laps. 

Zane Smith ($11,000; Starting P2) Obviously if you’re paying this price tag you’re hoping he gets you some dominator points. It’s a huge weekend for Zane as he’ll make his Cup Series debut and he’s a candidate to win this race. He has a pair of top five’s at Phoenix, and he has a pair of top ten’s at Gateway, but he did have a mechanical issue a year ago. But the 2022 season has been given us a different version of Zane. After not returning to GMS Racing, he signed with Front Row to fill the void left by Todd Gilliland and he’s gone out there and won three of the ten races collecting dominator points on a variety of tracks. He wasn’t incredibly fast in practice, but the starting spot puts him in great position to get early dominator points. Let’s hope he finishes well.

Ben Rhodes ($10,700; Starting P15) We haven’t really seen Rhodes dominate races of late, but he’s a good PD target at his price tag. He finished third here last year and he has four top ten finishes as well. He’s also finished 3rd, 4th, and 7th in his last three races at Phoenix and he’s been very strong at Richmond. So the finishes are there on the comparable tracks and he’s run well at Gateway but we just haven’t seen him dominate. That could change on Saturday, but you can play him and feel good about the starting spot alone.

Stewart Friesen ($10,200; Starting P3) In four career races at Gateway, Friesen’s worst finish is 13th while he’s finished top five in three consecutive races. This is a tough price tag to pay for Friesen. You either need him to win or get dominator points and still finish well. The starting spot means he has a shot to get to the front, but he’s relegated to only GPP’s for Saturday’s race. You can take solace in the fact that he’s also very strong at Phoenix, a track that also doesn’t feature much banking. Most people might lay off Friesen due to the price tag, but I think he’s worth a shot in some GPP builds. If you need a pivot off Friesen it’s probably Carson Hocevar who is $200 cheaper and starting P12. Truthfully, Hocevar isn’t historically great on flat tracks. He tends to finish right around where he starts. But he’s coming off the heartbreaking result a week ago where it looked like he was going to win. The only narrative I can offer for him is a shot at redemption. But again, he just doesn’t have the resume on this style of track.

Grant Enfinger ($9,600; Starting P10) I feel like I’ve mentioned this about Enfinger the last few weeks, but he’s a track position guy. You don’t think of Enfinger as the kind of driver that can dominate a race. But he understands the value of track position and he has three finishes in the top three in his last four races. I’m a little bummed with the price tag, but he’s starting P10 and can be optimal with a top five finish. Plus if he plays the right strategy, which we know he can do, he could be in contention to win. I also don’t hate Christian Eckes for $200 more. He’s coming in with four top five finishes in his last five races but he also doesn’t offer as much PD compared to Enfinger.

Johnny Sauter ($8,900; Starting P18) Two years ago I previewed this race and noted that Johnny Sauter had never finished worse than fourth at Gateway. Seven races, and seven finishes in the top two rows. Sure enough, he had a mechanical issue that plagued his day and he finished outside the top 30. But last year he rebounded and finished fifth after starting P20. This week he’s back in the 13-truck for Thorsport which is far better than whatever equipment Glory 2 God is fielding. The price tag makes no sense. He’s only run two races this year but did finish second at Martinsville. Historically he’s done well at flat tracks and while he wasn’t blazing fast in practice it’s likely he was just getting a feel for the truck again. He’s a fringe Cash game play at this price tag, but very viable for GPP’s. He knows the importance of late track position at Gateway.

Ty Majeski ($8,700; Starting P8) I’ll be honest I haven’t played a lot of Majeski the last few weeks. But he does have three top five finishes in his last four races and he’s showing up with speed at this track. He was very fast in practice, as has been the case the last few weeks, and the starting spot may turn some people off. I think he’s the kind of driver that has a win up his sleeve. Two years ago at this track he grabbed a top ten in a Niece truck. Last year in the 66-truck he was caught up in a wreck but he finished fifth and sixth in the first two stages. Personally, I may aim to be overweight on Majeski this week. Call it a gut feeling.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,500; Starting P20) You can play Ankrum for the PD but I’m having a hard time getting a read on him. He’s definitely made the most of this HRE equipment. But I do have some concerns. The resume at Gateway isn’t great, but he’s had some good runs at Phoenix, while logging a pair of top five finishes at Richmond. I don’t think I’ll land here too much to be honest. I’d rather pay down to Kraus in Cash games or pay up to Majeski as a dark horse dominator candidate in GPP’s. He likely needs a top ten to be optimal and even that feels like it might be his ceiling.

Derek Kraus ($8,100; Starting P36) Kraus is easily the Cash game lock for this week. I don’t know what happened with Kraus or why he couldn’t post a qualifying lap. As of Friday night, I’ve done light searches on Twitter to get an answer and I haven’t found anything yet. I’m sure we’ll get clarity Saturday morning. It may have been a tech issue that kept him from qualifying but he’s starting at the rear. In two races at Gateway he’s finished 20th and 13th. He easily hits value with a top 20 finish. Keep exposure in check for GPP’s, but he’s an easy building block for Cash games on Saturday. It is worth mentioning that these flatter tracks like Richmond and Phoenix aren’t his strength. But he’s starting too far back that a top 20 at his price tag easily returns value.

Austin Wayne Self ($7,500; Starting P28) AWS is on a bit of a cold streak and if he wasn’t starting P28 I’d say it’s hard to justify his price tag. Truthfully, given his recent runs I’m surprised DraftKings has been raising his price. When he has finished the race at Gateway, he has a pair of top 20 finishes and he grabbed a top ten here in 2021. But he’s also wrecked here on two other occasions as well. You don’t have to play him if you haven’t loved the recent form. Fortunately, we do have other value plays that we can target for PD.

Tate Fogleman ($6,800; Starting P35) It feels like anytime Fogleman presents himself as an obvious value play he ends up screwing us. So definitely proceed with caution. He wasn’t fast, but he’s an attrition play. In stage three, you just want him probably 10-15 spots further up compared to where he starts. He finished 14th here last year and 18th the year before. He did get caught up in an accident last Spring at Richmond, but he did finish 15th there in 2020. He’s an okay Cash game play. Obviously in the Truck series, anyone priced in this range is risky for Cash games, but in those contests I’d be happy if he just finished 25th, but he certainly can get a top 20.

Jack Wood ($6,600; Starting P32) I can’t believe I’m recommending him but screw it. Let’s see what happens. He’s burned enough people by now to where he’s far from chalk even when he’s starting this far back. He’s simply not very good and most weeks he’s a terrible DFS play… However, let’s take a look at what he did on flatter tracks last year. In 2021 he was 11th at Nashville, 10th at Gateway, and 20th at Phoenix. It’s worth mentioning he started on the front row for Nashville, started P21 for Gateway, and started P15 for Phoenix. So in most cases he did lose a few spots. We haven’t run too many comparable tracks in 2022, but he’s finished five straight races after wrecking in four of the first five to start the year. That’s typically how bad he is. I’m crediting him for finishing races. So I will plug him into some GPP’s. If he truly is better on flatter tracks, then let’s see what he does with PD on his side. Don’t play him in Cash even though he’s offering PD. It’s still quite possible he wrecks. And for what it’s worth, it’s GMS equipment at a cheap price tag.

Timmy Hill ($6,400; Starting P29) I could see plenty of DFS players going to Timmy Hill in Cash games. For GPP’s I might prefer his brother at a $1,000 discount. But let’s talk about Timmy first. There’s a good floor here. Obviously, at this price tag you’re looking for roughly 27-30 points for DFS. He only has two races all year with less than 20 points on DraftKings. He’s put up at least 22 points in seven races. Again, that’s not “value” in terms of a 5X return, but it’s still an okay floor. He’s only run Gateway once and it was seven years ago, but he finished 18th. He wasn’t even top 30 in speed in practice but I trust him as a driver that likely finishes between 20th and 25th.

Rajah Caruth ($5,900; Starting P19) Caruth is a GPP only play this week given the starting spot. He flashed top 15 speed in practice, but those were also his first laps on the track. There is some speculation that this truck was prepped by Hendrick Motorsports, but Hendrick can’t put one of their drivers behind the wheel because of the Triple Truck Challenge. The setup looks right, but Caruth is very green. Promising? Sure. But very green and this is his Truck Series debut on a track he says he’s never raced. He had a rough go of it for his Xfinity Series debut a few weeks back. Stranger things have happened so be mindful of just seeing him as a GPP play.

Tyler Hill ($5,400; Starting P27) I’ll continue to go this route if he’s this cheap. He’s not a slam dunk and far from a lock, but I’m perfectly fine with this play in Cash and GPP’s. At $5,000 at both Kansas and Texas he returned 33 and 22 points which is perfectly fine for a sub-$6K play. He’s also run the last two Gateway races in the Truck series gaining at least nine spots of PD in each race. He could still wreck which is why you don’t go too heavy, but he will be one of my favorite punts once again. If he stays clean there’s top 20 upside here. 

Spencer Boyd ($5,200; Starting P34) Yep, there goes Malin. Back on his B.S. again recommending Spencer Boyd. But hear me out. From a roster construction standpoint, he’s starting P34 and is the cheapest punt I want to recommend. I don’t love playing him when he starts inside the top 30 because his upside is a top 25 finish. This week he’s offering a little more PD. I’ll take the 22 points on DraftKings if he just does enough to finish 27th. I think if you want to get contrarian you can look to the cheaper Niece Motorsports drivers hoping you hit the right one that finishes in the top 20. But personally, I’d rather just take the guy who can’t really kill me with negative PD.

Example Lineups

Example Lineups will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel no later than 12:00pm ET.

 

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