We were all burned by the Taco yesterday on PrizePicks with Kevin Durant going under his discounted total of 25.5 points. Overall in discord, we finished up 3-2 on the day and we are 7-5 on the week. We have a big 12 game slate tonight with some pretty favorable plays to target so let's get to the winning.
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Today's Top Plays
RJ Barrett Over 3.5 Assists
We went 1-1 with our Barrett props the other day with him hitting the over on his assists and just falling half a free throw shy for his other. Today we go back to the assist prop where the number just has not moved despite the fact that Barrett has gone over this total in five straight games in which he is averaging 5.6 assists per game. Barrett is clearly running a lot more of the offense of late, as he should be, and the fact that he plays nearly 40-minutes a night regardless of the score gives him plenty of opportunities to hit the over 3.5 assists mark.
RJ Barrett L5 Game Assist Totals
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 10.5 Points
Another play that you should be very familiar with here as we've been touting it for a while on the NBA DFS Podcast and we posted this play each of the last two games the Mavericks have been on the slate. DFS has gone over this total in five straight games and in eight of the last 10. During the most recent five-game stretch, he is averaging 17.2 points per game and it should be no surprise that the trade of Kristaps Porzingis has likely led to his increased usage and therefore his scoring has gone up.
Dorian Finney-Smith L10 Game Point Totals
Marvin Bagley Over 14.5 Points
This one may be a bit riskier than the others given all the scoring options in the Pistons lineup right now with Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, and Jerami Grant all playing at their ceiling but with Isaiah Stewart out of the lineup, we saw Bagley play 36 minutes the other night against Atlanta. When healthy we've seen Bagley be a high upside offensive threat and tonight's matchup against the Bulls is a pretty good one even if Nikola Vucevic is active. Bagley has hit the over on this total in three of the last four games and when on the floor over the past two weeks he has a 23.8% usage rate.
Marvin Bagley L5 Game Point Totals
Kyle Kuzma Over 4.5 Assists
While we've often focused on the rebound and point totals for Kuzma it has been his increased assist numbers that have been jumping off the page for me over the past week or so. That said, tonight we go after it with his assist total sitting at just 4.5 in his matchup against the Clippers. Kuzma is averaging 6.4 assists per game over the last 10 contests while going over the 4.5 assist threshold in eight of 10 contests. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis to the Wizards rotation adds another scorer for Kuzma to pass the ball to.
Kyle Kuzma L10 Game Assist Totals
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