I want to begin this Minnesota Lynx Team Preview with an apology to Lynx fans, because the Curse of the FantasyAlarm Team Preview is real and I don’t think there is any way to stop it. As of this writing, we have published three WNBA team previews. After their respective previews, head coach Nicki Collen left the Atlanta Dream, the Chicago Sky suspended Gabby Williams for the season and Angel McCoughtry was carried off the court after suffering a knee injury in an Aces preseason game. I don’t know what is going to happen with the Lynx between now and the start of the WNBA season, but I am pretty sure there will be something.
2020 Results
14-8 Record, 4th in the league. Lost in three games to eventual champions Seattle in the playoff semifinals.
Offseason Moves
? Signed Damiris Dantas to a contract extension.
? Signed free agent Kayla McBride.
? Signed free agent Natalie Achonwa.
? Signed-and-traded Erica McCall to Washington.
? Traded Mikiah Herbert Harrigan to Seattle for Phoenix’s 2022 first-round pick.
? Traded Temi Fagbenle and Odyssey Sims to Indiana.
? Signed free agent Aerial Powers.
? Waived Lexie Brown.
Draft Results
In 2019 and 2020 the Lynx drafted the eventual WNBA MVP after she inexplicably fell to them in the draft. It is possible that happened again with Tennesse wing Rennia Davis falling to Minnesota with the ninth overall pick. According to Cheryl Reeve on her podcast, Davis will play the two and the three in addition to also backing up the one. It sounds like Davis will play next to Kayla McBride quite a bit, and she could even start while McBride is still playing overseas.
Offseason Breakdown
Minnesota’s biggest needs coming into the offseason were wing shooting and frontcourt depth, and they addressed both of those needs by signing Kayla McBride, Natalie Achonwa and Aerial Powers. On top of that, it looks like they got the steal of the draft for the third consecutive year. I’m not sure the Lynx have enough star power to actually contend for a title, but outside of beating the Liberty’s offer for Natasha Howard, I don’t see how they could have changed that. Otherwise, the Lynx had one of the best offseasons of any team in the league.
Minnesota will almost certainly be better than last season, especially if they can keep Sylvia Fowles healthy. The only question is if they have improved enough to keep up with teams like Chicago, Las Vegas and Washington who have also added a lot of talent.
Projected Starting Five
PG Crystal Dangerfield
SG Kayla McBride
SF Napheesa Collier
PF Damiris Dantas
C Sylvia Fowles
This may not be the best starting 5 in the league, but it is probably the most balanced. This lineup has size, shooting, defense, ball-handling and playmaking; the only thing that is missing is continuity. And considering how well the pieces appear to fit, I'm not worried about the lack of continuity.
This will almost certainly be the starting lineup for as long as all five players are healthy. Dantas, Collier and Dangerfield played 422 minutes together last season, eighth-most among all three-player lineups in the league. Minnesota was +5.4 in those minutes. Kayla McBride has come off the bench in just three games in her entire WNBA career while Sylvia Fowles has started every game she has played in a Lynx uniform.
Natalie Achonwa and Aerial Powers are certainly capable of starting, and Rennia Davis could be as well, but it is hard to imagine we will see that once McBride and Collier return from playing overseas.
2021 Outlook
On her podcast, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve took issue with the Lynx coming in 6th in ESPN's preseason power rankings. How do you take the 4th best team from the Wubble, the argument goes, add Natalie Achonwa and Kayla McBride and bring Sylvia Fowles back healthy and actually drop two spots? This argument ignores that several contenders made significant additions from last season, but as you'll see in the betting section, I largely agree with it.
I think Reeve is the best coach in the league, and that gap may have widened with Nicki Collen going to Baylor. Bringing in Achonwa should lessen the burden on Fowles, and this team should be quite deep in addition to having a formidable starting lineup.
If the Lynx struggle this season, it will likely be on offense. Crystal Dangerfield, Napheesa Collier and Sylvia Fowles are the only players who consistently get shots for themselves or others. Rennia Davis could be that type of player, but it is too soon to tell. This team should be very tough defensively, and after a couple of down years, I think they will rebound at the high level Reeve demands. Playing Collier and Powers at the three certainly helps in that regard. I still think Collier would be best playing the four with more shooting on the floor, but that won’t happen much with how this roster is constructed.
One thing Reeve has been great at the last couple of seasons is getting Collier easy post-ups under the basket when she is matched up with smaller wings. If you have to play big, you may as well take advantage of it, and the Lynx do.
Betting Outlook
At 17/1 on FanDuel, it is awfully difficult for me to pass on a chance to bet Minnesota. When you combine the best coach, one of the best centers, one of the best shooters, the last two rookies of the year and a deep bench, I think you have a legit chance to contend. The Lynx have the best price of any of the eight actual contenders, and I think they could be just as good as any of those teams.
Fantasy Outlook
Sylvia Fowles averaged 28 minutes per game last season in the six games before her injury, averaging a career-high 1.34 fantasy points per minute. With the additions of Natalie Achonwa and Aerial Powers and Jessica Shepard’s return from a torn ACL, Minnesota should probably have the depth to really limit Fowles’s minutes and save her for the playoffs. That being said, she could still be a decent value early on as I expect her usage to spike with Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride out. If Fowles plays 28 mpg again I think she will produce, but if her minutes are reduced further, she will be overpriced. It will someone to monitor in May.
Napheesa Collier averaged 13.8 ppg in the six games she played with Fowles before the injury and 17.0 ppg in all other games. I would take the over on 13.8 ppg this season, especially if the Lynx limit Fowles’s minutes, but I think Collier will be overpriced to start the season. Similarly, I will likely fade Damiris Dantas in May after she saw her points and rebounds and fantasy points skyrocket in the second half of the season. With Fowles back, and more depth behind her, I think Dantas’s production will return to 2019 levels, when she averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game.
I think Crystal Dangerfield could actually benefit from having Fowles as a pick-and-roll partner. At the very least, I think Dangerfield will build on the 27.3 fantasy points per game she averaged in the last 15 games of the season. Another year of confidence and development should benefit her. Even if her scoring drops a bit, I think she’ll improve on the 3.6 assists per game she averaged in 2020.
The Lynx starter who may actually be the best DFS value early in the season is Kayla McBride. McBride had career-lows in field goal attempts, three-point field goal attempts and fppg last season while playing her fewest minutes and collecting the fewest rebounds since she was a rookie. McBride may not create a lot of offense for herself and others but I think she will get a lot of open looks and opportunities to attack closeouts after Dangerfield, Fowles and Collier have gotten the defense off-balanced. I think McBride will be in some of my cash lineups early on.
The Lynx will be especially interesting for fantasy early on because Collier and McBride will likely miss some time due to their European clubs playing deep into the playoffs. Whoever starts in their spots will be immediately playable for fantasy, though I think Aerial Powers, Bridget Carleton and Rennia Davis would be most interesting in those spots. Carleton averaged 19.1 fppg as a starter last season, and I think she could be even better than that if/when she starts this season.
Regardless of who starts, I think Crystal Dangerfield will be relied on for offense even more than what we saw down the stretch in 2020. We will have to see where she is priced, but she could be a great value early on, as could Rachel Banham, even if she would likely be coming off the bench.