Saturday’s EPL DFS slate features four heavy favorites, which offers some challenges for DFS. With the busy run of features this month, there is a good chance we will get some discounted attackers with really good matchups, which we will of course want to pounce on. Barring that, we will have to pick and choose which cheap players from the underdogs we want to use to allow us to pay up for the studs. I usually try to save money on my goalkeeper and defenders, but that is a challenge in this slate.
Playbook:
| Goalkeepers | |||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Aaron Ramsdale | ARS | SOU | 5500 | 11.45 | 11 | 17.63 | |
| If we just go by the betting odds, we should pass on Ramsdale to play one of the even bigger favorites. That being said, Southampton has been arguably the best matchup in the league for opposing keepers. Southampton has surrendered 42 saves and four clean sheets while scoring just 14 goals in 15 games. Ramsdale may actually be safer than the other top keepers and his ceiling is potentially even higher. | |||||||
| Willy Caballero | SOU | ARS | 3900 | 0 | 9 | -7.50 | |
| This may be the rare slate where I skip the cheap keepers. That being said, Caballero is pretty clearly the best bet if you need to save money at the position. Arsenal is tied with Leeds with 49 saves against and they have just three more goals. Arsenal | |||||||
| Edouard Mendy | CHE | LEE | 5800 | 10.23 | 13 | 16.25 | |
| Liverpool is actually a heavier favorite, but I'm not sure they should be. Perhaps more importantly, only Manchester City and Liverpool have had seen more opponent's saves than Leeds this season. Leeds has only 15 goals for their trouble, and with Kalvin Phillips, Liam Cooper, Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo all out, Mendy should be as safe as ever for a win and hopefully a clean sheet. | |||||||
| Tim Krul | NOR | MUN | 8 | 7.77 | |||
| Unlike the other underdogs, Norwich is at home. Also, United is probably the least trustworthy of the favorites. Krul probably has more downside than Caballero, but it may be worth saving a dollar. | |||||||
| Forwards | |||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Mohamed Salah | LIV | AVL | 10800 | 22.65 | 22 | 34.84 | |
| Salah has been held without an attacking return just once all season, and it is hard to believe he will be kept off the scoresheet at home against Aston Villa. He is the best player in the league and the safest, but we don't have to pay an outrageous amount to get him. | |||||||
| Kai Havertz | CHE | LEE | 6500 | 5.87 | 16 | 9.16 | |
| I actually like Chelsea's other attackers better, but I think Havertz is most likely to start. Like his teammates, Havertz is a GPP play with a good chance of scoring in a nice matchup. | |||||||
| Midfielders | |||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | NOR | 20 | 22.27 | |||
| Fernandes seems to have gotten back on track under new leadership, with six chances created and a goal in his last two games. This should be a great matchup at Norwich, and Fernandes is the safest United attacker. | |||||||
| Jack Harrison | LEE | CHE | 4800 | 7.22 | 12 | 8.84 | |
| Harrison is averaging 6.5 crosses over his last four games, even in a tough matchup, he should be safe on DraftKings. | |||||||
| Bukayo Saka | ARS | SOU | 8400 | 9.96 | 16 | 12.25 | |
| Saka is averaging 4.0 crosses and 1.8 chances created in his last six starts. He is a GPP play on FD and a cash play on DK. | |||||||
| Martin Odegaard | ARS | SOU | 7600 | 7.16 | 15 | 12.07 | |
| Odegaard is a must-play on FanDuel, thanks to his 10 chances created in his last three games. He is playable on DraftKings as well thanks to his 11 crosses in that span. | |||||||
| Mason Mount | CHE | LEE | 9300 | 13.87 | 19 | 19.80 | |
| I still don't trust him completely, but how do you argue against someone who has at least 22.7 DK fantasy points in three of his last four starts? He should rack up crosses and chances created in a good matchup with Leeds, but lately his scoring has provided most of his value. | |||||||
| Midfielders | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Jacob Ramsey | AVL | LIV | 3500 | 5.71 | 10 | 7.17 | |
| Ramsey has at least one cross in all three games since rejoining the starting lineup, averaging 6.5 DK fantasy points in those games. That is a modest total to be sure, but that is all we really need at his price point. | |||||||
| Jadon Sancho | MUN | NOR | 17 | 6.92 | |||
| Sancho has at least two chances created in five of h is last six games. We always knew he was too good to stay so quiet for long, and now he looks like the player Manchester United thought they were getting in the summer. | |||||||
| Jordan Henderson | LIV | AVL | 5100 | 8.33 | 13 | 12.14 | |
| Henderson was disappointing against Wolves, but he is still averaging 12.3 DK fantasy points in his last six starts. No team on the slate has allowed more goals than Aston Villa, and Henderson is our best bet by far if we are looking for a cheap way into the Liverpool attack. | |||||||
| Defenders | |||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | ARS | SOU | 4400 | 7.02 | 12 | 13.24 | |
| I cannot for the life of me figure out why Kieran Tierney costs $800 more on DK than Tomiyasu. Tomiyasu has at least 6.7 DK fantasy poitns in four of his last five games, and the exception was against Liverpool. Tomiyasu is a very nice value with a good matchup. | |||||||
| Andrew Robertson | LIV | AVL | 5900 | 11.38 | 13 | 16.03 | |
| Robertson has actually been better than Trent Alexander-Arnold in the last three games and while that will not necessarily continue, I am willing to take that chance considering Robertson is so much cheaper. | |||||||
| Stuart Dallas | LEE | CHE | 4900 | 9.75 | 14 | 13.40 | |
| I'm not sure I want to play any defenders on DK against any of the top sides, but Dallas may be the exception. He is on set pieces and with so many Leeds attackers out, he could be even more heavily involved than normal. I don't like the matchup at all, but Leeds tends to generate some chances even against the best teams. | |||||||
| Lyanco | SOU | ARS | 2500 | 1.96 | 9 | 7.57 | |
| I don't expect a repeat of the three chances he created against Brighton, but he is still awfully cheap for someone who has at least 15.6 FD fantasy points in both of his starts this season. His 11 clearances in those games give him quite a high floor. | |||||||
| Luke Ayling | LEE | CHE | 4000 | 8.92 | 12 | 14.85 | |
| This may be the toughest slate I have seen for safe defenders on FanDuel. I don't feel like we are getting great value on Ayling, but this is a nice matchup and he isn't entirely dependent on attacking returns for fantasy points. In a GPP, I would rather pay up for one of the Liverpool or Chelsea wingers, but barring any surprise starters, Ayling is a very nice cash play. | |||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | LIV | AVL | 8000 | 19.9 | 15 | 25.80 | |
| It is becoming a common occurance when I make my DraftKings lineup that I dismiss the top-priced defender as being too expensive only to find he is the safest play with the remaining money at UTIL. Andrew Robertson is probably the better value, but there is no doubt Alexander-Arnold is safer. That goes for FanDuel as well. | |||||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mohamed Salah | $10,800 |
| Mason Mount | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Bukayo Saka | $8,400 |
| Andrew Robertson | $5,900 | |
Value Tier | Takehiro Tomiyasu | $4,400 |
| Jacob Ramsey | $3,500 | |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mohamed Salah | $22 |
| Bruno Fernandes | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Martin Odegaard | $15 |
| Jordan Henderson | $13 | |
Value Tier | Willy Caballero | $9 |
| Lyanco | $9 | |