At this point, trying to put together an EPL DFS Playbook feels like an exercise in futility. With all of the recent cancellations in the Premier League, including multiple games cancelled hours before kickoff, it is hard to be optimistic that all three games will go off Sunday. That being said, there have been talks of the league getting shut down until sometime in January, and if this winds up being our last EPL DFS slate of the year, I intend to take full advantage.
Sunday’s slate offers a different dynamic than the midweek slates, with two games at 9:00 a.m. ET and one at 12:30. The DraftKings slate only features the early games, which is nice. We will know all of the starters at the same time and will be able to react accordingly. Theoretically, we should know if the late game is canceled before the early games start, but we could still be taking a risk. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to play a FD lineup featuring only early-game players, with the idea that you would have a huge advantage if the late game was canceled.
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Alisson
LIV
TOT
11
14.59
Alisson is the cheapest of the heavy favorites because Liverpool has the toughest matchup. That being said, we have reason to suspect the matchup will not be as tough as usual. Even if all of the starters are available, we don't know if they will be fully fit following their bouts of covid. We similarly don't know if Tottenham will be hurt by a lack of training time due to their covid outbreak. Alisson is riskier than Ederson but the potential value is hard to ignore.
Jose Sa
WOL
CHE
3900
9.74
8
14.24
Wolverhampton has allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the league and they have the most saves. All the cheap keepers are risky, so I'll go with the one who has been the best to this point.
Ederson
MCI
NEW
5900
8.8
13
13.97
Sometimes the simplest solution is the best. Manchester City has allowed the fewest goals and they are tied for the most clean sheets. Newcastle is missing its best player and has scored three goals in its last five games. If you're going to pay up, you may as well go all the way.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Mohamed Salah
LIV
TOT
21
33.64
Perhaps the only highlight of Burnley's season is that they are the only team to prevent Mo Salah from getting an attacking return this season. Even if Liverpool playing late, it is hard to imagine keeping him out of your squad.
Kai Havertz
CHE
WOL
6000
5.84
15
9.05
Havertz is significantly cheaper than Christian Pulisic, but I don't really understand why. Both are goal dependent, and while Wolverhampton has been stingy this season, I'm not particularly scared of this matchup. Havertz has a chance to be a really nice value.
Joelinton
NEW
MCI
4400
5.62
13
10.74
I never thought I would recommend Joelinton for DFS, but here we are. He is the rare forward who is only a cash play, because I never trust him to finish no matter how good his chances are. That being said, he is averaging 15.9 FD fantasy points and 5.4 DK fantasy points in his last three games. He is a valuable punt who will allow you to pay up elsewhere.
Raheem Sterling
MCI
NEW
8800
10.13
17
14.99
All of the starting City attackers are in contention for DFS Sunday, but Sterling looks like the best value. He is averaging 3.4 crosses, 3.2 chances created, 2.8 shots and 1.6 shots on goal in his last five games, with three goals and an assist in that span. He is a strong play in all formats, but he would be a must-play for DK cash games.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Giovani Lo Celso
TOT
LIV
10
4.34
Initially I thought Lo Celso's value was tied to Son Heung-Min's availability but value plays are so hard to come by that if he starts, I think I'm playing Lo Celso no matter what. The problem is if Lo Celso doesn't start, your options to replace him will be extremely limited.
Mason Mount
CHE
WOL
9200
15.29
20
22.24
At some point, his four-game goal streak will come to an end. That being said, he is still safe on DraftKings, and he is playable on FanDuel as well.
Kevin De Bruyne
MCI
NEW
10300
12.87
20
17.22
Is it possible we have forgotten how good Kevin De Bruyne is? He has at least three crosses, four chances created and four shots in each of his last two games. He is a top play whenever he starts, and his price is reasonable thanks to a handful of bench appearances.
Hakim Ziyech
CHE
WOL
7500
10.75
18
14.02
Ziyech has 13 crosses, six chances created and 13 shots in his last three starts. Outside of Mount, Ziyech is the safest Chelsea attacker on either site.
Phil Foden
MCI
NEW
10900
16.5
19
19.61
I don't think it is overstating the case to call Foden the only safe forward on DraftKings. Kevin De Bruyne and Mason Mount are better values, but playing them will leave you with total dart throws at forward.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Ben Davies
TOT
LIV
11
12.68
Davies is averaging 18.1 FD fantasy points in his last four starts. Central defenders can usually rack up points against Liverpool, and Davies may be the only Spur I play Sunday.
Marcos Alonso
CHE
WOL
5700
14.63
13
18.29
I'm not sure why he is so cheap. He doesn't have the best matchup, but I'm not particularly scared of Wolves, either.
Joao Cancelo
MCI
NEW
6500
12.78
14
18.49
Cancelo does have the best matchup, especially on DK, where his lack of defensive stats aren't a concern. I might pay up for Trent Alexander-Arnold if I could afford him, but it is hard to argue with Cancelo's matchup. It also helps that he is available on both sites.
Antonio Rudiger
CHE
WOL
3800
7.46
11
13.66
Rudiger has at least 4.6 DK fantasy points in 10 straight matches, and if you're looking for a cheap defender on a short slate, I think this is probably the best you can do. He is good for one or two shots every game, and if this is the day one of those shots goes in, you will have a huge advantage in your contests.
Ryan Fraser
NEW
MCI
3700
3.76
9
3.30
I still don't know why Fraser is listed as a defender on DK, but I'll go ahead and take advantage. He has nine crosses in his last two starts and even if he only gets three or four against City, that will be enough at his price.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Matt Ritchie
NEW
MCI
4500
9.27
10
11.37
Ritchie is probably a better bet than Fraser to play 90 minutes. And while Fraser is better in open play, Ritchie is more likely to take set pieces. I think he is safer than Fraser despite his struggles against Liverpool Thursday.
Maximilian Kilman
WOL
CHE
2900
5.29
12
14.61
He strikes a nice balance between the high floor of Conor Coady and the high ceiling of Romain Saiss. You can adjust accordingly depending on your contest and how much you have to spend, but if I have to pick one Wolves defender in a nice matchup, it's Kilman.
