Today's fight between Ilir Latifi and Aleksei Oleinik has been cancelled.
The UFC has left the confines of the APEX and is halfway through a three-week road trip. This weekend's stop is in Columbus, OH – an odd target for an early return spot, but I digress. We may get some interesting judging from the state commission, though. We’re also in the larger Octagon, though that didn’t slow down anyone in London last week.
Without further ado, let's jump into Saturday's UFC Columbus fight card with Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus being the headliner main event.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -475/ +350 | -125/+380 |
Daukaus is looking to re-establish his momentum in the HW division after a KO loss to Derrick Lewis in December. A win over Blaydes would certainly do that. Blaydes is looking to get his title shot back in line after a similar loss to Derrick Lewis. It all comes down to being able to get up if Blaydes takes you down and making him work for takedowns. When he gets to chain wrestle, forget about it. You’re in for a long night. We haven’t seen Daukaus have to shut down a wrestling approach yet so it’s largely an unknown. What has me edging Dauk is that Blaydes has become herky-jerky in the cage after some punishment has added up and doesn’t want to engage when there’s a chance he gets hit. Dauk might struggle in spots but won’t quite and may very well have a better gas tank as the lighter man. He will also find openings to tag Blaydes. It’s probably a solid stack since a flash KO is less likely. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Manon Fiorot | 9400 | Jennifer Maia | Safe | -475 | +200 |
Fiorot has looked like a beast so far in the UFC. The very passive Maia is likely to get steamrolled if she doesn’t hit a takedown or three. | |||||
Aliaskhab Khizriev | 9300 | Denis Tiuliulin | Somewhat-Safe | -100 | -360 |
The next scary Russian emerges. Khizriev has torn through everyone put in front of him at the lower levels. Tiululin is also a debutant so that worry is alleviated. | |||||
Askar Askarov | 9100 | Kai Kara-France | Somewhat-Safe | -425 | +215 |
Askarov has a very clear wrestling and BJJ advantage. KKF can be tough to catch with his speed but once you get a hold of him it’s not hard work. If Askarov has had a healthy training camp he probably cruises. He’ll need a finish at the price, however. | |||||
Alexa Grasso | 9000 | Joanne Wood | Moderate | -255 | +380 |
Grasso has better boxing but isn’t as well-rounded as Wood. I think Jojo’s work rate will be a challenge for Grasso to compete with but Jojo is always in close fights. If Grasso edges it she should have solid striking output to go along. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Karol Rosa | 8900 | Sara McMann | Moderate | -195 | +225 |
Rosa has the striking to be a problem if she can keep McMann from grounding her. That’s a big if since Rosa is all offense with little defense. Still, as long as she survives McMann is likely to pack it in early as she often does. Then Rosa can let the tiger out of the cage. | |||||
Viacheslav Borshchev | 8700 | Marc Diakiese | Moderate | -145 | +120 |
Slava Claus hopes to bring us gifts of violence. He’s stepping way up in competition, despite Diakiese’s skidding record. If Slava’s endurance is on point he’ll probably solve Diakiese on the feet in the second half of the fight. | |||||
Neil Magny | 8800 | Max Griffin | Moderate | -275 | +330 |
Magny is of the most use on DK when he finds a wrestling edge. Griffin has developed his wrestling game over the years but Magny’s is more polished. Without the takedowns, Magny is likely to pick at Griffin from range in a somewhat boring affair. | |||||
Batgerel Danaa | 8500 | Chris Gutierrez | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +150 |
We’ve seen Batgerel come into his own on the power front. He’s got savage hooks as his last three KO victims can attest to. Gutierrez is a better kickboxer than them but he’s still a journeyman. Can Danaa make it four in a row? | |||||
Ilir Latifi | 8600 | Aleksei Oleinik | Risky | -210 | +150 |
Latifi would need to catch Olenik early while he’s still fresh. Otherwise, they probably spend the fight in each other's guard and grapple sluggishly. | |||||
Matt Brown | 8200 | Bryan Barberena | Risky | -105 | +150 |
Can Matt Brown stay ahead of father time another night? He’s on borrowed time but does come to bang every time out. Barberena is even more washed so it’s going to come down to who lands the first big shot. | |||||
Bryan Barberena | 8000 | Matt Brown | Risky | -115 | +215 |
Bam Bam stood behind his cast iron chin his whole career until Vincente Luque cracked it in a war. He hasn’t been the same since and a bit worse each time he gets in the cage. If he finds some of that old magic this could be a brawl and either man’s to take. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Joanne Wood | 7200 | Alexa Grasso | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +600 |
I like Jojo in every fight, probably more than I should. Her output suckers me in, especially the leg kick volume. She’s always in close fights and probably is here again. I’ll take the discount on the coinflip fight. | |||||
Sara McMann | 7300 | Karol Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +550 |
McMann has better wrestling than most of women's MMA. She just doesn’t have a fighter’s heart. If it goes her way early and she finds a sub she’s a smash. If not, she’ll quit on herself. | |||||
Kai Kara-France | 7100 | Askar Askarov | Risky | +320 | +650 |
If KKF has his takedown defense on point he can make it an interesting fight. He’s the better pure kickboxer. Askarov has also looked lost when not dominating the grappling. | |||||
Aleksei Oleinik | 7600 | Ilir Latifi | Risky | +175 | +250 |
The old bear may have a trick or two left to play. He hasn’t been taking very good fights lately and is on an 0-3 skid. He’s always live for a submission, though. | |||||
Chris Gutierrez | 7700 | Batgerel Danaa | Risky | +110 | +425 |
Maybe Gutierrez can work leg kicks and stay away from Batgerel’s power enough to win a decision. His losses have largely been to wrestlers. | |||||
Marc Diakiese | 7500 | Viacheslav Borshchev | Risky | +125 | +275 |
Diakiese just keeps picking tough opponents. Respect it but he’s looking to be 0-4 if he can’t solve the slick Russian striker. Maybe he can expose some wrestling flaws in Slava’s game. | |||||
Matheus Nicolau | 7800 | David Dvorak | Risky | +105 | +350 |
The UFC is building Nicolau back up. He’s a well-rounded fighter but not a big finisher. Dvorak is also a safer fighter. | |||||
Jennifer Maia | 6800 | Manon Fiorot | Risky | +350 | +110 |
There’s a non-zero chance Fiorot hasn’t shored her takedown defense up to UFC level yet. Maia isn’t an aggressive wrestler but has hit some timely TDs in her career. |
Example Lineup:
Live Dogs:
Daukaus, Wood, McMann, Nicolau, Kara-France, Olenik, Diakiese
PrizePicks:
Karol Rosa OVER 52.5 SS, Ilir Latifi UNDER 94.5 FPTs, Matt Brown UNDER 10 Mins
Stats & Picks:
Curtis Blaydes | vs | Chris Daukaus |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | Loading... |
Subs | ||
-475 | Vegas Odds | +350 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Joanne Wood | vs | Alexa Grasso |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+205 | Vegas Odds | -255 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Matt Brown | vs | Bryan Barberena |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 25-18-0 | Record | Record: 16-8-0 |
15 | Knockouts | Loading... |
6 | Subs | |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Askar Askarov | vs | Kai Kara-France |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 14-0-1 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 (1 NC) |
Loading... | Knockouts | Loading... |
Subs | ||
-425 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ilir Latifi | vs | Aleksei Oleinik |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 16-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 59-16-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 46 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
0 | ||
Marc Diakiese | vs | Viacheslav Borshchev |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 5 |
Subs | 0 | |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Neil Magny | vs | Max Griffin |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 25-9-0 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Sara McMann | vs | Karol Rosa |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Chris Gutierrez | vs | Batgerel Danaa |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 17-3-2 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | Loading... |
Subs | ||
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Aliaskhab Khizriev | vs | Denis Tiuliulin |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-100 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Jennifer Maia | vs | Manon Fiorot |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 19-8-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | Loading... |
5 | Subs | |
+350 | Vegas Odds | -475 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Matheus Nicolau | vs | David Dvorak |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 17-3-1 | Record | Record: 20-3-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 8 |
Subs | 8 | |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Luis Saldana | vs | Bruno Souza |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |