As tends to be the case after a PPV, we're getting a fairly plain Fight Night card. Not many big favorites are locks so be careful with your spending. Much of your success likely comes down to getting the main event correct.
Playbook:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad | $8500/$7700 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -190/ +160 | +110/+550 |
We can probably expect an entertaining fight if not an all out war from these two warriors. Belal probably needs to execute timely wrestling to pull out the upset. If not, Luque will be too much for him to trade with. It's a moderate stack since Luque can finish the fight at anytime. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Drakkar Klose | $9,400 | Brandon Jenkins | Somewhat-Safe | -630 | -115 |
We've got a clash of pace in this fight. Klose fights conservatively while Jenkins pushes volume over power. If Klose leans into the pace of his opponent, he's interesting both for stats and a possible finish. One thing that concerns me is his admission that he still suffers some effects of the whiplash Jeremy Stephens shove gave him at weigh-ins a while ago. | |||||
Mayra Bueno Silva | $9,300 | Wu Yanan | Somewhat-Safe | -510 | +165 |
Silva was supposed to be a hyped prospect getting back on track after time off but that hasn't really materialized. The UFC is giving her a layup to see if she can build some momentum. | |||||
Pat Sabatini | $9,200 | TJ Laramie | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | +100 |
Sabatini is decently rounded journeyman. He relies on guile and his opponent making mistakes. Laramie is still a raw fighter. | |||||
Pannie Kianzad | $9,100 | Lina Lansberg | Moderate | -450 | +330 |
Pannie probably gets the better of the exchanges in this one. If she doesn't hit some wrestling, her score is likely modest. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Istela Nunes | $8,900 | Sam Hughes | Moderate | -225 | +330 |
Nunes only needs to be competent to win this. Hughes has been a doormat in the UFC. | |||||
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev | $8,400 | Caio Borralho | Moderate | -130 | +200 |
Gadzhi is a typical Russian control wrestler. If he succeeds to implement it, he can cruise. If not, he's going to look shaky on the feet. | |||||
Alatengheili | $8,800 | Kevin Croom | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +200 |
If he commits to wrestling, Alateng should find success. He's failed to commit in his last two loses, however. | |||||
Miguel Baeza | $8,700 | Andre Fialho | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +150 |
Baeza has flashy striking but ends up in too many exchanges that leave him vulnerable. He does have sneaky BJJ in his back pocket. | |||||
Mounir Lazzez | $8,800 | Ange Loosa | Somewhat-Risky | -195 | +225 |
In two fights, we've seen Lazzez eat big punishment early and wilt in one but come on strong in the other. Which will it be here? | |||||
Jesse Ronson | $8,000 | Rafa Garcia | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +275 |
After a journeyman career, Ronson finally had his moment in his second UFC run. That was erased by a positive PED test. He's getting a favorable matchup at 170 against the where he's usually outsized. García has fought at 145. | |||||
Devin Clark | $8,600 | William Knight | Risky | -180 | +275 |
Clark has the wrestling but at times is content to control rather than advance. That can hold back his score. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Andre Fialho | $7,500 | Miguel Baeza | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +250 |
Fialho showed himself to be a power puncher that will chase you around the ring in his UFC debut loss. He gets hit doing it, but Baeza has a suspect chin. If Fialho can catch up to him, an upset is ripe. | |||||
Caio Borralho | $7,800 | Gadzhi Omargadzhiev | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +240 |
If Borralho can stay off his back, he should have the edge on the feet. That's going to be a challenge. | |||||
Brandon Jenkins | $6,800 | Drakkar Klose | Risky | +450 | +800 |
If Jenkins brings his preferred pace, he's live. He'll have to avoid getting hit too much and not get taken down. | |||||
Jordan Leavitt | $7,900 | Trey Ogden | Risky | -145 | +250 |
Leavitt needs to work at a sub to be of use for us on DraftKings. He has the ability but not always the game plan. | |||||
Chris Barnett | $7,200 | Martin Buday | Risky | +195 | +250 |
Barnett is the rare short heavyweight at 5'9". He's also a superb athlete under all that extra weight. He can occasionally overcome his limitations thanks to that. | |||||
TJ Laramie | $7,000 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | +375 | +900 |
Laramie is a strong wrestler. If he stays focused he could overpower Laramie, the generalist. | |||||
Ange Loosa | $7,400 | Mounir Lazzez | Risky | +165 | +425 |
If you stay on him, Lazzez is there to be hit. An early finish at a dog price will be a must have. | |||||
William Knight | $7,600 | Devin Clark | Risky | +155 | +275 |
“Thick Willie” probably needs to land a perfectly timed shot to pull this out. He has the power but lacks on technique. |
Example Lineup:
Live Dogs:
Fialho, Muhammad, Borralho, Leavitt, Jenkins, Barnett
Stats & Picks:
Vicente Luque | vs | Belal Muhammad |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 21-7-1 | Record | Record: 20-3-0 (1 NC) |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Caio Borralho | vs | Gadzhi Omargadzhiev |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Miguel Baeza | vs | Andre Fialho |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Mayra Bueno Silva | vs | Wu Yanan |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 7-2-1 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-510 | Vegas Odds | +370 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Pat Sabatini | vs | TJ Laramie |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-550 | Vegas Odds | +375 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
0 | ||
Mounir Lazzez | vs | Ange Loosa |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Devin Clark | vs | William Knight |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Lina Lansberg | vs | Pannie Kianzad |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
+330 | Vegas Odds | -450 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Drakkar Klose | vs | Brandon Jenkins |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 11-2-1 | Record | Record: 15-8-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-630 | Vegas Odds | +450 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Rafa Garcia | vs | Jesse Ronson |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-10-0 (1 NC) |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Chris Barnett | vs | Martin Buday |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
+195 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jordan Leavitt | vs | Trey Ogden |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Istela Nunes | vs | Sam Hughes |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 6-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 5-4-0 |
#N/A | Knockouts | #N/A |
Subs | ||
-225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
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