As tends to be the case after a PPV, we're getting a fairly plain Fight Night card. Not many big favorites are locks so be careful with your spending. Much of your success likely comes down to getting the main event correct. 

 


Playbook:

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad$8500/$7700-Stackability: Moderate-190/ +160+110/+550
We can probably expect an entertaining fight if not an all out war from these two warriors. Belal probably needs to execute timely wrestling to pull out the upset. If not, Luque will be too much for him to trade with. It's a moderate stack since Luque can finish the fight at anytime.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Drakkar Klose$9,400Brandon JenkinsSomewhat-Safe-630-115
We've got a clash of pace in this fight. Klose fights conservatively while Jenkins pushes volume over power. If Klose leans into the pace of his opponent, he's interesting both for stats and a possible finish. One thing that concerns me is his admission that he still suffers some effects of the whiplash Jeremy Stephens shove gave him at weigh-ins a while ago.
Mayra Bueno Silva$9,300Wu YananSomewhat-Safe-510+165
Silva was supposed to be a hyped prospect getting back on track after time off but that hasn't really materialized. The UFC is giving her a layup to see if she can build some momentum.
Pat Sabatini$9,200TJ LaramieSomewhat-Safe-550+100
Sabatini is decently rounded journeyman. He relies on guile and his opponent making mistakes. Laramie is still a raw fighter.
Pannie Kianzad$9,100Lina LansbergModerate-450+330
Pannie probably gets the better of the exchanges in this one. If she doesn't hit some wrestling, her score is likely modest.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Istela Nunes$8,900Sam HughesModerate-225+330
Nunes only needs to be competent to win this. Hughes has been a doormat in the UFC.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev$8,400Caio BorralhoModerate-130+200
Gadzhi is a typical Russian control wrestler. If he succeeds to implement it, he can cruise. If not, he's going to look shaky on the feet.
Alatengheili$8,800Kevin CroomSomewhat-Risky-190+200
If he commits to wrestling, Alateng should find success. He's failed to commit in his last two loses, however.
Miguel Baeza$8,700Andre FialhoSomewhat-Risky-170+150
Baeza has flashy striking but ends up in too many exchanges that leave him vulnerable. He does have sneaky BJJ in his back pocket.
Mounir Lazzez$8,800Ange LoosaSomewhat-Risky-195+225
In two fights, we've seen Lazzez eat big punishment early and wilt in one but come on strong in the other. Which will it be here?
Jesse Ronson$8,000Rafa GarciaSomewhat-Risky-120+275
After a journeyman career, Ronson finally had his moment in his second UFC run. That was erased by a positive PED test. He's getting a favorable matchup at 170 against the where he's usually outsized. García has fought at 145.
Devin Clark$8,600William KnightRisky-180+275
Clark has the wrestling but at times is content to control rather than advance. That can hold back his score.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Andre Fialho$7,500Miguel BaezaSomewhat-Risky+150+250
Fialho showed himself to be a power puncher that will chase you around the ring in his UFC debut loss. He gets hit doing it, but Baeza has a suspect chin. If Fialho can catch up to him, an upset is ripe.
Caio Borralho$7,800Gadzhi OmargadzhievSomewhat-Risky+110+240
If Borralho can stay off his back, he should have the edge on the feet. That's going to be a challenge.
Brandon Jenkins$6,800Drakkar KloseRisky+450+800
If Jenkins brings his preferred pace, he's live. He'll have to avoid getting hit too much and not get taken down.
Jordan Leavitt$7,900Trey OgdenRisky-145+250
Leavitt needs to work at a sub to be of use for us on DraftKings. He has the ability but not always the game plan.
Chris Barnett$7,200Martin BudayRisky+195+250
Barnett is the rare short heavyweight at 5'9". He's also a superb athlete under all that extra weight. He can occasionally overcome his limitations thanks to that.
TJ Laramie$7,000Pat SabatiniRisky+375+900
Laramie is a strong wrestler. If he stays focused he could overpower Laramie, the generalist.
Ange Loosa$7,400Mounir LazzezRisky+165+425
If you stay on him, Lazzez is there to be hit. An early finish at a dog price will be a must have.
William Knight$7,600Devin ClarkRisky+155+275
“Thick Willie” probably needs to land a perfectly timed shot to pull this out. He has the power but lacks on technique.

Example Lineup:


 

Live Dogs:

Fialho, Muhammad, Borralho, Leavitt, Jenkins, Barnett


 

Stats & Picks: 

   
Vicente LuquevsBelal Muhammad
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 21-7-1RecordRecord: 20-3-0 (1 NC)
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-190Vegas Odds+160
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Caio BorralhovsGadzhi Omargadzhiev
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 13-0-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
+110Vegas Odds-130
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Miguel BaezavsAndre Fialho
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 14-4-0 (1 NC)
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-170Vegas Odds+150
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Mayra Bueno SilvavsWu Yanan
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 7-2-1RecordRecord: 12-4-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-510Vegas Odds+370
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Pat SabatinivsTJ Laramie
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 16-3-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-550Vegas Odds+375
5/10Lineup Pool23/10
 0 
Mounir LazzezvsAnge Loosa
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-195Vegas Odds+165
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Devin ClarkvsWilliam Knight
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 12-6-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-180Vegas Odds+155
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Lina LansbergvsPannie Kianzad
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 10-5-0RecordRecord: 16-6-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
+330Vegas Odds-450
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Drakkar KlosevsBrandon Jenkins
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 11-2-1RecordRecord: 15-8-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-630Vegas Odds+450
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Rafa GarciavsJesse Ronson
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 21-10-0 (1 NC)
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
+100Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Chris BarnettvsMartin Buday
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 22-7-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
+195Vegas Odds-240
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jordan LeavittvsTrey Ogden
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 9-1-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-145Vegas Odds+125
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Istela NunesvsSam Hughes
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 6-2-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 5-4-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-225Vegas Odds+185
5/10Lineup Pool2/10

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