MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Vegas 53
TONIGHT'S FIGHT BETWEEN CARLOS CANDELARIO AND TATSURO TAIRO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
The UFC continues to clear contracts with these Fight Night cards and less sexy names. There's a diamond or two in the rough, though. We'll at least get to see some young fighters with potential. They could put on surprise performances.
MMA DFS Playbook:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rob Font vs Marlon Vera | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -125/ +105 | +380/+275 |
This is a very exciting fight despite Font missing weight. He'll need to contend with Vera's grappling strength so that may actually be a plus for him. Font has the inside track as a much cleaner boxer and smarter fighter. Vera is a junkyard dog and often has to overcome a slow start. That all adds up to a fun finish. It's a solid stack given Font not being a big finisher and Vera starting slow. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexandr Romanov | 9600 | Chase Sherman | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | -650 |
Romanov is in an obvious smash spot. Sherman was just cut but brought back for this short notice spot. He also can't wrestle. | |||||
Andre Fili | 9300 | Joanderson Brito | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +150 |
Fili is a better bet than DK play. He's super well-rounded but not elite at anything. He would need a surprise head kick or submission finish to be useful. | |||||
Tatsuro Taira | 9200 | Carlos Candelario | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | +130 |
The undefeated Japanese prospect has a lot to prove. His control makes this a tough task for Candelario. Betting prospect debutants at chalk prices is a losing proposition, however. | |||||
Natan Levy | 9000 | Mike Breeden | Moderate | -200 | +240 |
The matchmakers are looking to get Levy a rebound from his debut loss. He'd have to find another gear to be a DK value. So another case of good bet, bad stats. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Grant Dawson | 8700 | Jared Gordon | Moderate | -180 | +240 |
Dawson is very talented but has been struggling with cardio. Gordon uses cardio as a weapon at the expense of his chin sometimes. Dawson is very capable of exposing that chin but if he doesn't he's in trouble. | |||||
Krzysztof Jotko | 8800 | Gerald Meerschaert | Moderate | -180 | +215 |
Jotko's control style is a nightmare matchup for GM3, who depends on opponents getting tired and making mistakes. That style also doesn't result in big DK scores, however. | |||||
Gina Mazany | 8900 | Shanna Young | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +200 |
The UFC is giving Mazany a thank you fight. That doesn't guarantee victory, though. If she can out-wrestle opponents she cruises. If not, look out. | |||||
Darren Elkins | 8600 | Tristan Connelly | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +275 |
Elkins continues to trade brain damage for paychecks. The man gets hit far too easily but uses his immense heart to find ways to win. That's getting continually harder, however. | |||||
Gabe Green | 8500 | Yohan Lainesse | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +165 |
If we knew Green was fully dedicated to MMA I'd feel better about him as the favorite. He's tough and has a couple tools. That's not a lock for victory, though. | |||||
Daniel Da Silva | 8200 | Francisco Figueiredo | Somewhat-Risky | ||
Da Silva had the misfortune of debuting against Jeff Molina. That was a terrible stylistic match up for him. This is a much more winnable fight for someone that had some hype as a finisher coming into that debut. | |||||
Francisco Figueiredo | 8000 | Daniel Da Silva | Risky | ||
The other Figgy brother relies on grit mostly. We saw Da Silva break in his debut. That's liable to happen again. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jared Gordon | 7500 | Grant Dawson | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +600 |
Excellent matchmaking here. Dawson needs to show cardio isn't a problem for him and Gordon can only win with cardio. If Gordon's chin holds up he's going to look strong as the fight goes on. | |||||
Tristan Connelly | 7600 | Darren Elkins | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +450 |
I'd be much more interested in Connelly if he hadn't been dealing with a neck injury prior to his last fight. He's a good bet not to overextend trying to put Elkins away the way many of Elkins victims have done. If he does fight smart, Elkins is a sitting duck and completely shop worn. | |||||
Yohan Lainesse | 7700 | Gabe Green | Risky | +115 | +165 |
Lainesse is a decent prospect. Green's a journeyman with toughness. It's a typical prove you belong fight. | |||||
Gerald Meerschaert | 7400 | Krzysztof Jotko | Risky | +155 | +250 |
GM3 has made a career of winning fights he's losing. The man has huge heart and slick BJJ when opponents get tired. He's never a bad dog play. | |||||
Jake Collier | 7800 | Andrei Arlovski | Risky | +105 | +275 |
Maybe Collier can be one of the rare young heavyweights that doesn't let Arlovski hypnotize him. | |||||
Carlos Candelario | 7000 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | +195 | +500 |
When two prospects debut against each other there is often a surprise for how competitive the underdog is. A Japanese prospect isn't exactly a lock either. | |||||
Mike Breeden | 7200 | Natan Levy | Risky | +170 | +450 |
If Levy isn't all he's cracked up to be this is a steep discount on a close fight. | |||||
Shanna Young | 7300 | Gina Mazany | Risky | +160 | +500 |
I mean, it is women's MMA. Underdogs hit at a pretty high rate. |
Example Lineup:
Live Dogs:
Vera, Gordon, Connelly, Meerschart
Stats & Picks:
Rob Font | vs | Marlon Vera |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 19-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-7-1 |
8 | Knockouts | Loading... |
4 | Subs | |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Andrei Arlovski | vs | Jake Collier |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 33-20-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 17 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Andre Fili | vs | Joanderson Brito |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 21-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Jared Gordon | vs | Grant Dawson |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Darren Elkins | vs | Tristan Connelly |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 27-10-0 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 9 |
11 | Subs | 5 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
0 | ||
Krzysztof Jotko | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 34-14-0 |
4 | Knockouts | Loading... |
9 | Subs | |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Alexandr Romanov | vs | Chase Sherman |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-9-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 17 |
Subs | 3 | |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Daniel Da Silva | vs | Francisco Figueiredo |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-1 (1 NC) |
Loading... | Knockouts | Loading... |
Subs | ||
Vegas Odds | ||
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Gabe Green | vs | Yohan Lainesse |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | Loading... |
7 | Subs | |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Natan Levy | vs | Mike Breeden |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 0 |
Subs | 3 | |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Gina Mazany | vs | Shanna Young |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 7-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 3 |
Subs | 2 | |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Tatsuro Taira | vs | Carlos Candelario |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 3 |
Subs | 5 | |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
#N/A | vs | #N/A |
#N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record | ||
2 | Knockouts | Loading... |
3 | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
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