Hold onto your hats fantasy MMA fans. The UFC has vacated the Lightweight Title in light of Charles Oliveira missing weight. Justin Gaethje can still win the title with a victory, but Charles can only play spoiler. It’s still a scheduled five-round fight and going to be very exciting for as long as it actually lasts. It's also interesting to hear a couple of fighters confirm the hotel scale was off. A few folks could be fighting with a chip on their shoulder. All in all, it's a great slate of fights that the UFC has been holding back talent for.
MMA DFS Playbook
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -165/ +145 | -115/+175 |
| Despite the weight miss, this is still an amazing fight. Charles might be in a poor mindset not being able to win the belt but a win would make him part of the next title fight assuredly. Both fighters take too much damage to have a confident lean either way. Charles has the betting edge with his lethal grappling. Gaethje has that kill or be killed mentally. It's stackable in cash for how uncertain the winner is. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michael Chandler | 9600 | Tony Ferguson | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -125 |
| Chandler has shown he's willing to put on a show despite the risk. He's got a wrestling base but just throws hammers lately. Tony is a shell of his former self and eats a lot of punishment. | |||||
| Brandon Royval | 9300 | Matt Schnell | Somewhat-Safe | -255 | -105 |
| We love targeting Royval fights for MMA DFS. He uses pace as his biggest weapon. That's high variance making it hard to trust him completely but Schnell isn't a big threat. | |||||
| Andre Fialho | 9500 | Cameron VanCamp | Somewhat-Safe | -410 | -165 |
| I'd be more interested in Fialho if this weren't a short turnaround. That's been a letdown spot often. Fialho has big power and stalks opponents. He'll need the finish at the price. | |||||
| Ovince Saint Preux | 9200 | Mauricio Rua | Moderate | -240 | -110 |
| OSP's career is winding down but he's closer to his prime than Shogun, who's absolutely shot. Shogan is a tough dude though and could last until it's too late for OSP to hit value. | |||||
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 9400 | CJ Vergara | Moderate | -320 | +130 |
| This is a big price for a debut. That's traditionally an decent fade in DFS. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rose Namajunas | 8900 | Carla Esparza | Moderate | -225 | +200 |
| Rose has shown that she belongs on the WMMA throne after some mental struggles mid-career. Her striking is sharper than anyone. Her Achilles' heel is wrestling and Esparza wrestles well. She'll have to come through considerable fire to get on Rose. It's closer than the line indicates but Rose certainly has the inside track. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 9000 | Ariane Carnelossi | Moderate | -180 | +400 |
| This is another big price tag for an unproven fighter. Loopy is a boxer but has embraced learning to grapple. It's a work in progress, however. Carnelossi would love for her to grapple. She's in trouble if Loopy can keep at range. | |||||
| Norma Dumont | 9100 | Macy Chiasson | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +250 |
| This was another weight miss for Dumont. Her mindset is going to be interesting. Linemakers are counting on Big Norm to wrestle and hold Macy down. | |||||
| Donald Cerrone | 8800 | Joe Lauzon | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +315 |
| Cowboy hopefully prepares to ride into the sunset with a win here. Lauzon is more washed and at least Cowboy's striking has stayed somewhat effective. | |||||
| Tracy Cortez | 8700 | Melissa Gatto | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +380 |
| Cortez has had mixed results but is trending in the right direction. Gatto has a bit to prove still, as well. We have to consider Cortez for her wrestling potential. | |||||
| Khaos Williams | 8300 | Randy Brown | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +165 |
| A great fight should be on tap here. Khaos is always live with his big power. He'll need to avoid getting stuck on his back. | |||||
| Blagoy Ivanov | 8400 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Risky | -150 | +180 |
| Ivanov looks in good shape after some time off. If de Lima doesn't win right off the bat he's usually toast. Ivanov is super durable traditionally. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Macy Chiasson | 7100 | Norma Dumont | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +600 |
| There's a lot of recency bias in this line. Not that long ago it would have been completely flipped. Chiason is a value but also has finishing ability. Let's see if she can get back on the fast track to contention. | |||||
| Ariane Carnelossi | 7200 | Loopy Godinez | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +400 |
| Carnelossi out-guns most in the strength and wrestling. She has robotic striking and slow hands, however. This one will be determined by where the fight takes place. She's an interesting underdog. | |||||
| Carla Esparza | 7300 | Rose Namajunas | Risky | +185 | +650 |
| Carla could manage to out-wrestle Rose. That would open the door to a submission. Cookie Monster has been working her entire career to get back to this title shot. | |||||
| Randy Brown | 7900 | Khaos Williams | Risky | +100 | +240 |
| For Brown to dominate he'll likely need to pull out some wrestling and look for submissions with his length. He can out point Khaos but is at risk as long as he's on the feet. | |||||
| Melissa Gatto | 7500 | Tracy Cortez | Risky | +120 | +330 |
| Gatto's a bit of an unknown. She hasn't faced this level of competition yet after a long time away from the cage prior to her return. She can out-strike Cortez if she stuffs her wrestling. | |||||
| Tony Ferguson | 6600 | Michael Chandler | Risky | +290 | +600 |
| Since the beating Gaethje laid on him Tony has looked cooked. If he manages to recapture that old pace and toughness we have seen a lot Chandler fade late before. | |||||
| Cameron VanCamp | 6700 | Andre Fialho | Risky | +310 | +450 |
| Rock bottom price for someone facing an opponent on short rest is mildly intriguing. | |||||
| CJ Vergara | 6800 | Kleydson Rodrigues | Risky | +250 | +500 |
| The underdog in a low-level fight isn't the worst spot to target. Vergara seems destined to be a journeyman but could have an upset in his back pocket occasionally. | |||||
| Matt Schnell | 6900 | Brandon Royval | Risky | +205 | +475 |
| I don't like Schnell's chances much in this one but we always have to consider the other side of Royval fight with the variance he adds through pace. | |||||
MMA DFS Example Lineup
Live Dogs
Gaethje, Esparza, Chiason, Brown, Carnelossi, Gatto
Stats & Picks
| Charles Oliveira | vs | Justin Gaethje |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 32-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-3-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 19 |
| 20 | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Rose Namajunas | vs | Carla Esparza |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
| 19 | Knockouts | 2 |
| Subs | 5 | |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Michael Chandler | vs | Tony Ferguson |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 26-6-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 4 | Subs | 7 |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Mauricio Rua | vs | Ovince Saint Preux |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 27-12-1 | Record | Record: 25-16-0 |
| 12 | Knockouts | 21 |
| 8 | Subs | 1 |
| +195 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Donald Cerrone | vs | Joe Lauzon |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 36-16-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 28-16-0 |
| 12 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 8 | Subs | 17 |
| -180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Randy Brown | vs | Khaos Williams |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 17 | Subs | 5 |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Danny Roberts |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 27-8-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 1 | Subs | 5 |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Macy Chiasson | vs | Norma Dumont |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 5 | Subs | 2 |
| +190 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Brandon Royval | vs | Matt Schnell |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 (1 NC) |
| 0 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 2 | Subs | 8 |
| -255 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 18-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 19-8-1 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 8 | Subs | 6 |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Andre Fialho | vs | Cameron VanCamp |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 15-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-5-1 (1 NC) |
| 14 | Knockouts | 12 |
| 2 | Subs | 1 |
| -410 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tracy Cortez | vs | Melissa Gatto |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-2 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 9 | Subs | 1 |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | vs | CJ Vergara |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-1 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 4 | Subs | 2 |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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