MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Vegas 54

Jan Blachowicz Aleksandar Rakic MMA UFC Vegas 54

Published: May 14, 2022

Updated: May 14, 2022

There are only 11 fights on this UFC Vegas 54 Fight Night card. That makes it more likely there’s one or two magic bullets that will win tournaments if that’s your kind of MMA DFS night. The upside is that there are a plethora of live underdogs. It’s always fun to root for the dogs to bark in daily fantasy. The MMA DFS Playbook features the top UFC Vegas 54 DFS plays, DFS picks, and stacking opportunities to help you cash in big tonight.

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Vegas 54

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic	7500/8700	-	Stackability: Moderate	+165/ -195	+330/+165
Our main event comes with clear title shot implications. The biggest concern I have is that both of these guys have shown a willingness to fight a tight, less than exciting style. Both have finishing ability when presented with the right opportunity, though. Jan would be my pick if I had more confidence his neck was 100%. Rakic clearly has immense potential but has struggled putting everything together in the cage for signature wins. If Jan is his usual sharp self, I can see him frustrating the younger man. If not, Rakic's raw strength wears the older man down.

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Nick Maximov	9300	Andre Petroski	Somewhat-Safe	-365	+150
The Diaz brothers' protege has been taking on big names and cashing in wins so far in his UFC run. He's got an excellent base set of skills with wrestling and aggression. His striking is progressing, as well. This match up is likely the UFC wanting to see how he does without a clear wrestling edge.
Davey Grant	9100	Louis Smolka	Somewhat-Safe	-300	-135
Grant's finally getting some betting line respect. He's been surging in the UFC despite losing two straight to big names. His all out wild brawls make for must see fights. Smolka represents a big step back in competition level so we'll see if he can capitalize.
Ion Cutelaba	8900	Ryan Spann	Somewhat-Safe	-210	-165
I hadn't been much of a Cutelaba fan but he's worked to fix his issues lately. Last fight he showed a gas tank and has cut out the wild man BS. His power and wrestling make him the clear favorite over Spann, a guy that has trouble with both.
Tatsuro Taira	9000	Carlos Candelario	Moderate	-305	+120
The undefeated Japanese prospect has a lot to prove. His control makes this a tough task for Candelario. Betting prospect debutants at chalk prices is a losing proposition, however.

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Virna Jandiroba	8500	Angela Hill	Moderate	-200	+240
Virna has a huge wrestling and BJJ advantage if she can catch up to the very athletic Hill. If she can't she's probably toast. That makes her a top target because a win means she dominated with wrestling.
Jake Hadley	8800	Allan Nascimento	Moderate	-210	+275
Hadley plays the British bad boy but that has won him few friends in the UFC. He's got a tough debut on tap here. Nascimento is no pushover. He also has solid BJJ. Hadley has relied on grappling in his UK come up. The UK BJJ scene is a little different than Brazil, though. That all said, aggression could be enough to overwhelm the tough but limited Nascimento.
Michael Johnson	8400	Alan Patrick	Somewhat-Risky	-150	+240
Johnson continues to be an enigma. He's beaten some of the best and lost to some of the worst. His boxing is still crisp but his body is shot and he can't wrestle. Patrick is as much of a cupcake as you get in the UFC. This is likely management thanking him for his service.
Manuel Torres	8300	Frank Camacho	Somewhat-Risky	-130	+120
Oddsmakers are angling that Camacho is going to continue to struggle in the octagon after many brawls. Torres is a tough fighter and can certainly check the chin that Camacho leaves out too often.
Katlyn Chookagian	8600	Amanda Ribas	Somewhat-Risky	-170	+350
As always, Chook figures to pitter patter from range and stay away from trouble. Point fighting is DK poison.
Andrea Lee	8200	Viviane Araujo	Somewhat-Risky	-125	+450
Lee usually fares as well as her takedown defense. She's a decent kickboxer when not on her back but tends to be in too many close rounds.
Viviane Araujo	8000	Andrea Lee	Risky	+105	+475
Araujo is a serviceable wrestler and that's been enough to steal rounds from Lee. A lot will come down to game plan and Araujo's willingness to stay dedicated to wrestling.

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Frank Camacho	7900	Manuel Torres	Somewhat-Risky	+110	+225
I'll take the dog shot on a UFC veteran in a close fight here. Camacho has had an inconsistent run of late but he looks in great shape. Much of his struggles could have been related to weight cutting. If his durability holds up like usual I see him winning a war.
Angela Hill	7700	Virna Jandiroba	Somewhat-Risky	+170	+750
Hill is another fighter who can dance circles around opponents if she's not stuck on her back. She generally pushes a hard pace, as well.
Allan Nascimento	7400	Jake Hadley	Risky	+175	+380
Despite UFC losses, Nascimento has been extremely competitive against solid fighters. He's a guy I've been watching to breakthrough with the right bounce going his way. A debuting Brit is a good spot to take that shot.
Ryan Spann	7300	Ion Cutelaba	Risky	+175	+300
We never know what Ion is going to do in the cage. Spann is facing a challenge but has big power if Ion decides to go berserk and some sneaky BJJ if Cutelaba gasses out.
Amanda Ribas	7600	Katlyn Chookagian	Risky	+150	+500
Ribas looks to continue getting back on track for a title shot. Chook is a tough nut to crack because she doesn't engage while moving away. The best have dealt with her fairly easily, though.
Alan Patrick	7800	Michael Johnson	Risky	+130	+350
The ancient and apathetic Patrick has a clear wrestling edge. The question is whether he'll hang tough long enough to utilize it. Johnson has given away plenty of fights to grapplers.
Louis Smolka	7100	Davey Grant	Risky	+235	+400
We always have to be interested in Grant's opponents. He fights wild and eats big punishment. That's always a spot to target against at dog prices.
Carlos Candelario	7200	Tatsuro Taira	Risky	+240	+500
When two prospects debut against each other there is often a surprise for how competitive the underdog is. A Japanese prospect isn't exactly a lock either.

MMA DFS Example Lineup for UFC Vegas 54

Live Dogs for UFC Vegas 54

Blachowicz, Camacho, Araujo, Hill, Nascimento, Ribas, Spann, Patrick

Stats & Picks for UFC Vegas 54


Jan Blachowicz	vs	Aleksandar Rakic
$7,500	DFS Salary	$8,700
Record: 28-9-0	Record	Record: 14-2-0
8	Knockouts	9
9	Subs	1
+165	Vegas Odds	-195
5/10	Lineup Pool	5/10

Ryan Spann	vs	Ion Cutelaba
$7,300	DFS Salary	$8,900
Record: 19-7-0	Record
5	Knockouts	12
11	Subs	2
+175	Vegas Odds	-210
3/10	Lineup Pool	7/10

Davey Grant	vs	Louis Smolka
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 13-6-0	Record	Record: 17-8-0
3	Knockouts	8
8	Subs	7
-300	Vegas Odds	+235
6/10	Lineup Pool	4/10

Katlyn Chookagian	vs	Amanda Ribas
$8,600	DFS Salary	$7,600
Record: 17-4-0	Record	Record: 11-2-0
2	Knockouts	3
1	Subs	4
-170	Vegas Odds	+150
4/10	Lineup Pool	4/10

Frank Camacho	vs	Manuel Torres
$7,900	DFS Salary	$8,300
Record: 22-9-0	Record	Record: 12-2-0
17	Knockouts	5
2	Subs	6
+110	Vegas Odds	-130
5/10	Lineup Pool	4/10
	0
Jake Hadley	vs	Allan Nascimento
$8,800	DFS Salary	$7,400
Record: 8-0-0	Record	Record: 18-6-0
2	Knockouts	2
4	Subs	13
-210	Vegas Odds	+175
5/10	Lineup Pool	5/10

Viviane Araujo	vs	Andrea Lee
$8,000	DFS Salary	$8,200
Record: 10-3-0	Record	Record: 13-5-0
3	Knockouts	12
4	Subs	2
+105	Vegas Odds	-125
5/10	Lineup Pool	3/10

Michael Johnson	vs	Alan Patrick
$8,400	DFS Salary	$7,800
Record: 20-17-0	Record
8	Knockouts	4
2	Subs	2
-150	Vegas Odds	+130
4/10	Lineup Pool	4/10

Virna Jandiroba	vs	Angela Hill
$8,500	DFS Salary	$7,700
Record: 17-3-0	Record	Record: 13-11-0
1	Knockouts	5
13	Subs	0
-200	Vegas Odds	+170
5/10	Lineup Pool	5/10

Tatsuro Taira	vs	Carlos Candelario
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 10-0-0	Record	Record: 8-1-0
3	Knockouts	2
5	Subs	3
-305	Vegas Odds	+240
4/10	Lineup Pool	4/10

Nick Maximov	vs	Andre Petroski
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 8-0-0	Record	Record: 7-2-0
2	Knockouts	4
3	Subs	3
-365	Vegas Odds	+280
7/10	Lineup Pool	3/10

#N/A	vs	#N/A
#N/A	DFS Salary	#N/A
	Record
#N/A	Knockouts	#N/A
	Subs
#N/A	Vegas Odds	#N/A
6/10	Lineup Pool	3/10

#N/A	vs	#N/A
#N/A	DFS Salary	#N/A
	Record
0	Knockouts	#N/A
0	Subs
#N/A	Vegas Odds	#N/A
2/10	Lineup Pool	6/10

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