ENCE (World rank: #3) vs. Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #15) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-230) | Copenhagen Flames (+185)

Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+160) | Copenhagen Flames +1.5 (-200)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of PGL Major Antwerp 2022.
  • ENCE - Rating at event: dycha 1.28 | Spinx 1.28 | Maden 1.04 | Snappi 1.01 | hades 1.00
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.19 | dycha  1.13 | hades 1.10 | Maden 1.04 | Snappi 1.00
  • Copenhagen Flames - Rating at event: nicoodoz 1.11 | Zyphon 1.10 | jabbi 1.04 | roeJ 1.00 | HooXi 0.79
  • Copenhagen Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.22 | nicoodoz 1.13 | jabbi 1.11 | Zyphon 1.05 | HooXi 0.89

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in a best-of-one on Ancient earlier at this event and Copenhagen Flames won 16-8. Nicoodoz led the server with a 1.31 Rating, while roeJ topped the leaderboards with 21 kills. 

Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen Flames win 2-1.

CPH Flames got the win on Ancient when these teams met just last week, and it was fairly one-sided with ENCE only picking up eight rounds. Beyond that, ENCE got the opening kill in 14 out of 24 rounds, and they won both pistol and conversion rounds, so the fact that they still only managed eight rounds is a bit troubling. ENCE are the higher-ranked team and they have been the better team at this event with a 1.12 Team Rating, which puts them only behind NAVI. However, Copenhagen Flames’ only losses have come in best-of-threes against FaZe and Spirit, who both look excellent and are the only two teams currently qualified for the semi-finals. Therefore, I am not concerned about the fact that Copenhagen Flames have a worse Team Rating considering they’ve played tough teams and even managed to win a map from both of them. This match-up is fairly close in terms of the map pool, but the fact that Copenhagen appear to have Ancient firmly in their favor gives me more confidence in their map pool. ENCE’s best maps have been Nuke & Mirage, but the Flames have a combined 17-8 W/L record across those two maps in the past three months, so this could shape up to be a tight series. I prefer to back Copenhagen Flames on Draftkings given the cheap pricing in a match-up where they are a live underdog.

  • roeJ leads his team with 24.2% opening duel attempts across 264 rounds played at this event, though he has struggled with only a 39.1% success rate. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

nicoodoz ($7,200) | Zyphon ($5,800) | roeJ ($8,200) | jabbi ($6,400) | Spinx ($8,800) | dycha ($8,400) | hades ($6,800) 

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. Heroic (World rank: #6) - 2:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-280) | Heroic (+220)

Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (+125) | Heroic +1.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of PGL Major Antwerp 2022.
  • Natus Vincere - Rating at event: b1t 1.43 | s1mple  1.22 | Perfecto 1.22 | electronic 1.00 | Boombl4 0.89
  • Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.37 | b1t 1.17 | Perfecto 1.06 | electronic 1.06 | Boombl4  0.96
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.22 | cadiaN  1.09 | TeSeS 1.07 | sjuush 1.07 | refrezh 0.87
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.21 | TeSeS 1.13 | cadiaN 1.09 | sjuush  1.07 | refrezh 1.03

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in April at the RMR qualifier for this event and Heroic won 2-1 (11-16 Mirage / 16-13 Nuke / 16-9 Nuke). S1mple led the server with 69 kills and a 1.30 Rating across three maps played. 

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.

NAVI have dominated this match-up historically, though Heroic did win just last month. However, that wasn’t an elimination match, and NAVI are notorious for mediocre performances when their back isn’t up against the wall. Here on the big stage at the playoffs of PGL Major Antwerp 2022, we can expect NAVI to have a strong showing. NAVI won the most recent Major, and all signs point to them having a serious shot at repeating. They are the highest-rated team at the event with a 1.15 Team Rating across five maps played, and b1t is the highest-rated player with a 1.43 Rating during that time. S1mple and Perfecto are not far behind as the fourth highest-rated and sixth highest-rated players, respectively, which just goes to show that their individuals are locked in. NAVI have been one of the best teams in the world on Mirage with an 8-2 W/L record across 10 maps played in the past three months, and they are undefeated on Ancient during that time across five maps played. NAVI have also been excellent on Dust2, but Heroic should ban that map to start. Heroic’s best chance of stealing a map from NAVI would maybe be Inferno like they chose last time, but NAVI have won three in a row on that map. The other map that Heroic would have a fighting chance on would be Nuke considering NAVI have struggled on that map as of late, but NAVI have a 28-5 W/L record on that map all time with their roster, and I’d favor them over the Danes in this huge spot. Overall, I expect NAVI to return to their winning ways against Heroic in this high stakes match-up, and a sweep seems entirely possible. 

  • b1t leads NAVI with 24.2% opening duel attempts across 132 rounds played at this event. He has been elite with a 62.5% success rate during that time. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

b1t ($8,600) | s1mple ($9,200) | Perfecto ($6,600) | electronic ($7,600) | Boombl4 ($5,600) | stavn ($7,800) | refrezh ($4,800) 

 

*Top Stacks: NAVI, Copenhagen Flames

*Favorite Captains: b1t, s1mple, nicoodoz, electronic, roeJ, Spinx

*Favorite Value Plays: Perfecto, Zyphon, Boombl4, jabbi