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SKADE (World rank: #30) vs. GamerLegion (World rank: #47) - 4:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: SKADE (-265) | GamerLegion (+210)

Map Handicap: SKADE -1.5 (+125) | GamerLegion +1.5 (-150)

  • This is an online best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • SKADE - Rating at event: dream3r 1.11 | SHiPZ  1.07 | Rainwaker 1.06 | dennyslaw 1.03 | bubble 0.89
  • SKADE - Rating past three months: SHiPZ 1.13 | Rainwaker  1.12 | dennyslaw 1.10 | dream3r 1.09 | bubble 0.94
  • GamerLegion - Rating at event: iM 1.31 | Zero  1.20 | eraa 1.13 | isak 1.11 | RuStY 0.94
  • GamerLegion - Rating past three months: iM 1.17 | eraa 1.05 | Zero 1.04 | isak 1.01 | RuStY 0.95 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in March at the PGL Major Antewerp 2022 Europe RMR Open Qualifier 4. GamerLegion won 2-1 (16-14 Inferno / 12-16 Mirage / 16-13 Nuke) and iM led the way with 72 kills and a 1.24 Rating across three maps played. 

Prediction/Narrative: SKADE wins 2-1.

SKADE have been on fire as they are currently on a seven series win streak, and they have a 60-36 W/L record across 96 maps played in the past three months. Their map pool is solid with a win rate of at least 66.7% on Inferno, Mirage, Ancient, Dust2, and Overpass during that time. GamerLegion have done well against tier two opponents as of late, though their W/L record in the past three months is only 29-26 across 55 maps played. GL have a fairly deep map pool with Mirage as their favorite map, but their win rates pale in comparison to SKADE. SKADE beat GamerLegion on GL’s map pick, Mirage, last time, and this series could set-up as a 2-0 sweep for SKADE if the Bulgarians continue their recent good form. Still, I’m giving GamerLegion credit to win a map here since they did take the series against SKADE last time they met, and GamerLegion have been excellent at this event as the second highest-rated team (1.13 Team Rating), plus iM leads all players with a 1.31 Rating. Thus, GamerLegion are certainly capable of keeping things close here. SKADE are ultimately the better team, and they should win here, but I’m anticipating a tight series. 

  • Rainwaker leads SKADE with a 1.17 K/D ratio, while dream3r is second on his team with a 1.15 K/D ratio in the past three months.
  • SHiPZ leads SKADE with 26.2% opening duel attempts, Dennsylaw leads his team with 0.13 opening kills per round in the past three months.  

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

 dennyslaw ($7,600) | dream3r ($6,600) | Rainwaker ($8,400) | SHiPZ ($9,400) | iM ($7,400) | eraa ($6,800) 

 

Apeks (World rank: #41) vs. ECSTATIC (World rank: #38) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Apeks (-190) | ECSTATIC (+155)

Map Handicap: Apeks -1.5 (+165) | ECSTATIC +1.5 (-200)

  • This is an online best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • Apeks - Rating at event: nawwk 1.18 | jkaem 1.04 | STYKO 0.98 | AcilioN 0.95 | chawzyyy 0.95
  • Apeks - Rating past three months: nawwk 1.17 | jkaem  1.15 | STYKO 1.05 | AcilioN 0.99 | chawzyyy 0.97
  • ECSTATIC - Rating at event: FASHR 1.27 | XELLOW  1.11 | maNkz 1.04 | Daffu 0.97 | birdfromsky 0.97
  • ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.20 | XELLOW 1.07 | maNkz 1.00 | Daffu  0.99 | birdfromsky 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: Apeks wins 2-0.

Apeks had a tough loss earlier in the week against Hellslayers, but they have mostly been elite at the tier two level otherwise. Apeks have a 37-23 W/L record across 60 maps played in the past three months, but that record improves to 23-7 across 30 maps played when we exclude top-30 teams from their match history. Apeks don’t have a lot of weaknesses in their map pool as they have at least a 50% win rate on every single map, even the map that they typically ban, Vertigo. I certainly expect Apeks to continue banning Vertigo here since that would take away ECSTATIC’s best map in terms of win rate. ECSTATIC also like to play Inferno, but Apeks have a 7-1 W/L record on that map across eight maps played in the past three months. ECSTATIC have also been decent on Dust2 lately, but again that is another strong map for Apeks, who have a 4-2 W/L record across six maps played in the past three months, including a 16-2 win over Copenhagen Flames, and a respectable 9-16 loss against BIG. Thus, the map pool looks brutal from ECSTATIC’s perspective. This looks like a definitive win for Apeks on paper, and their loss earlier in the week against Hellslayers doesn’t concern me especially since they followed it up with a 2-0 sweep against Into the Breach. I’m taking Apeks to sweep here and that is where I would focus on Draftkings I think jkaem is the best play on the slate overall at only $8,200 for a star rifler.

  • nawwk leads Apeks with a 1.37 K/D ratio across 60 maps played in the past three months. 
  • jkaem leads Apeks with 25.1% opening duel attempts and 0.14 opening kills per round across 60 maps played in the past three months.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

 jkaem ($8,200) | nawwk ($9,000) | AcilioN ($6,200) | chawzyyy ($5,600) | STYKO ($7,000) | XELLOW ($7,200) | FASHR ($8,000) 

 

*Top Stacks: Apeks, SKADE

*Favorite Captains: jkaem, dennyslaw, nawwk, Rainwaker, SHiPZ, 

*Favorite Value Plays: AcilioN, dream3r, chawzyyy, STYKO, iM, XELLOW