Hold onto your hats fantasy MMA fans. The UFC has vacated the Lightweight Title in light of Charles Oliveira missing weight. Justin Gaethje can still win the title with a victory, but Charles can only play spoiler. It’s still a scheduled five-round fight and going to be very exciting for as long as it actually lasts. It's also interesting to hear a couple of fighters confirm the hotel scale was off. A few folks could be fighting with a chip on their shoulder. All in all, it's a great slate of fights that the UFC has been holding back talent for. 




MMA DFS Playbook

Main Event
Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje8500/7700-Stackability: Moderate-165/ +145-115/+175
Despite the weight miss, this is still an amazing fight. Charles might be in a poor mindset not being able to win the belt but a win would make him part of the next title fight assuredly. Both fighters take too much damage to have a confident lean either way. Charles has the betting edge with his lethal grappling. Gaethje has that kill or be killed mentally. It's stackable in cash for how uncertain the winner is.
Michael Chandler9600Tony FergusonSomewhat-Safe-380-125
Chandler has shown he's willing to put on a show despite the risk. He's got a wrestling base but just throws hammers lately. Tony is a shell of his former self and eats a lot of punishment.
Brandon Royval9300Matt SchnellSomewhat-Safe-255-105
We love targeting Royval fights for MMA DFS. He uses pace as his biggest weapon. That's high variance making it hard to trust him completely but Schnell isn't a big threat.
Andre Fialho9500Cameron VanCampSomewhat-Safe-410-165
I'd be more interested in Fialho if this weren't a short turnaround. That's been a letdown spot often. Fialho has big power and stalks opponents. He'll need the finish at the price.
Ovince Saint Preux9200Mauricio RuaModerate-240-110
OSP's career is winding down but he's closer to his prime than Shogun, who's absolutely shot. Shogan is a tough dude though and could last until it's too late for OSP to hit value.
Kleydson Rodrigues9400CJ VergaraModerate-320+130
This is a big price for a debut. That's traditionally an decent fade in DFS.
Rose Namajunas8900Carla EsparzaModerate-225+200
Rose has shown that she belongs on the WMMA throne after some mental struggles mid-career. Her striking is sharper than anyone. Her Achilles' heel is wrestling and Esparza wrestles well. She'll have to come through considerable fire to get on Rose. It's closer than the line indicates but Rose certainly has the inside track.
Loopy Godinez9000Ariane CarnelossiModerate-180+400
This is another big price tag for an unproven fighter. Loopy is a boxer but has embraced learning to grapple. It's a work in progress, however. Carnelossi would love for her to grapple. She's in trouble if Loopy can keep at range.
Norma Dumont9100Macy ChiassonSomewhat-Risky-235+250
This was another weight miss for Dumont. Her mindset is going to be interesting. Linemakers are counting on Big Norm to wrestle and hold Macy down.
Donald Cerrone8800Joe LauzonSomewhat-Risky-180+315
Cowboy hopefully prepares to ride into the sunset with a win here. Lauzon is more washed and at least Cowboy's striking has stayed somewhat effective.
Tracy Cortez8700Melissa GattoSomewhat-Risky-140+380
Cortez has had mixed results but is trending in the right direction. Gatto has a bit to prove still, as well. We have to consider Cortez for her wrestling potential.
Khaos Williams8300Randy BrownSomewhat-Risky-120+165
A great fight should be on tap here. Khaos is always live with his big power. He'll need to avoid getting stuck on his back.
Blagoy Ivanov8400Marcos Rogerio de LimaRisky-150+180
Ivanov looks in good shape after some time off. If de Lima doesn't win right off the bat he's usually toast. Ivanov is super durable traditionally.
Macy Chiasson7100Norma DumontSomewhat-Risky+190+600
There's a lot of recency bias in this line. Not that long ago it would have been completely flipped. Chiason is a value but also has finishing ability. Let's see if she can get back on the fast track to contention.
Ariane Carnelossi7200Loopy GodinezSomewhat-Risky+155+400
Carnelossi out-guns most in the strength and wrestling. She has robotic striking and slow hands, however. This one will be determined by where the fight takes place. She's an interesting underdog.
Carla Esparza7300Rose NamajunasRisky+185+650
Carla could manage to out-wrestle Rose. That would open the door to a submission. Cookie Monster has been working her entire career to get back to this title shot.
Randy Brown7900Khaos WilliamsRisky+100+240
For Brown to dominate he'll likely need to pull out some wrestling and look for submissions with his length. He can out point Khaos but is at risk as long as he's on the feet.
Melissa Gatto7500Tracy CortezRisky+120+330
Gatto's a bit of an unknown. She hasn't faced this level of competition yet after a long time away from the cage prior to her return. She can out-strike Cortez if she stuffs her wrestling.
Tony Ferguson6600Michael ChandlerRisky+290+600
Since the beating Gaethje laid on him Tony has looked cooked. If he manages to recapture that old pace and toughness we have seen a lot Chandler fade late before.
Cameron VanCamp6700Andre FialhoRisky+310+450
Rock bottom price for someone facing an opponent on short rest is mildly intriguing.
CJ Vergara6800Kleydson RodriguesRisky+250+500
The underdog in a low-level fight isn't the worst spot to target. Vergara seems destined to be a journeyman but could have an upset in his back pocket occasionally.
Matt Schnell6900Brandon RoyvalRisky+205+475
I don't like Schnell's chances much in this one but we always have to consider the other side of Royval fight with the variance he adds through pace.

MMA DFS Example Lineup


Live Dogs

Gaethje, Esparza, Chiason, Brown, Carnelossi, Gatto


Stats & Picks

Charles OliveiravsJustin Gaethje
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 32-8-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 23-3-0
-165Vegas Odds+145
6/10Lineup Pool6/10
Rose NamajunasvsCarla Esparza
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 12-4-0RecordRecord: 19-6-0
-225Vegas Odds+185
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Michael ChandlervsTony Ferguson
$9,600DFS Salary$6,600
Record: 22-7-0RecordRecord: 26-6-0
-380Vegas Odds+290
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
Mauricio RuavsOvince Saint Preux
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 27-12-1RecordRecord: 25-16-0
+195Vegas Odds-240
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
Donald CerronevsJoe Lauzon
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 36-16-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 28-16-0
-180Vegas Odds+155
4/10Lineup Pool24/10
Randy BrownvsKhaos Williams
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 14-4-0RecordRecord: 13-2-0
+100Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
Francisco TrinaldovsDanny Roberts
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 27-8-0RecordRecord: 18-5-0
-115Vegas Odds-105
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
Macy ChiassonvsNorma Dumont
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
+190Vegas Odds-235
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Brandon RoyvalvsMatt Schnell
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 13-6-0RecordRecord: 15-5-0 (1 NC)
-255Vegas Odds+205
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Blagoy IvanovvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 18-4-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 19-8-1
-150Vegas Odds+130
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Andre FialhovsCameron VanCamp
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 15-4-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 15-5-1 (1 NC)
-410Vegas Odds+310
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
Tracy CortezvsMelissa Gatto
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 9-1-0RecordRecord: 8-0-2
-140Vegas Odds+120
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
Kleydson RodriguesvsCJ Vergara
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 9-3-1
-320Vegas Odds+250
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

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