MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Austin
TONIGHT'S FIGHT BETWEEN DONALD CERRONE AND JOE LAUZON HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO AN ILLNESS FOR LAUZON.
The UFC continues to mix in some travel as they are visiting Austin. That means Texas judging so we want finishes more than ever. There's a lot to like about this card, which isn't always the case after a PPV. You have your pick of underdogs, as well. That all should make for a good night of MMA DFS.
Check out all of the latest UFC Austin odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's UFC Austin event. Good luck in your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Austin
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -240/ +200 | +200/+380 |
| Both of these fighters only put on big shows. Kattar is one of the better boxers in MMA and has an edge to his game. Emmett throws with huge power and is getting back on track after tearing his knee up a few years ago. Kattar will front run and Emmett will look to stage a comeback with those heavy haymakers. That makes the line accurate but both have good paths to DFS scoring. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Adrian Yanez | 9400 | Tony Kelley | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +115 |
| Yanez is a smooth young striker with upward mobility. His one knock is that he's patient and doesn't push hard for a finish. Kelley is a tough vet but very hittable. | |||||
| Cody Stamann | 9500 | Eddie Wineland | Somewhat-Safe | -540 | +140 |
| There aren't many holes in Stamann's game but he finds himself on a 3 fight losing streak after facing some of the divisions best. This is a much more manageable opponent. He might even find a rare finish with an aged Wineland. | |||||
| Ricardo Ramos | 9300 | Danny Chavez | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +225 |
| It's been an up and down ride in the UFC for Ramos. He's coming off a loss and getting a step down against Chavez. If Ramos can out-grapple Chavez the way others have his plus BJJ could earn a finish. | |||||
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9100 | Natalia Silva | Moderate | -240 | +250 |
| Jasmine showed a lot to like in her debut win against the solid Kay Hansen. She's still very raw but gets an even more raw opponent in Silva. | |||||
| Gloria de Paula | 9200 | Maria Oliveira | Moderate | -260 | +275 |
| It's hard to expect a win from de Paula when her only UFC victory came over Diana Belbita. Oliveira isn't long for the UFC but she's not this much worse than GdP. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Albert Duraev | 8600 | Joaquin Buckley | Moderate | -240 | +110 |
| Duraev was as good as advertised in his debut. Control heavy wrestling is the name of his Russian game. That could be disastrous for Buckley who hits big but is an incomplete mixed martial artist. | |||||
| Gregory Rodrigues | 8500 | Julian Marquez | Moderate | -165 | +130 |
| Rodrigues will be looking to get back in the win column against a known name in Marquez. He should have success early and is dangerous on the feet and the mat. The main risk with Rodrigues is that he can gas out with his muscled up physique. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8900 | Tim Means | Somewhat-Risky | -285 | +140 |
| Now that Holland is cutting to 170 he looks much more comfortable in the strength department. He can beat anyone on the feet if he's motivated. It's when he gets put on the mat he struggles. | |||||
| Kyle Daukaus | 8700 | Roman Dolidze | Somewhat-Risky | -245 | +165 |
| Dauk has put on some pretty fun fights for us. He's game to strike and has pretty good BJJ. Dolidze is strong with some power and grappling of his own but probably out-gunned here. | |||||
| Phil Hawes | 9000 | Deron Winn | Somewhat-Risky | -250 | +105 |
| Hawes has the inside track given Winn tends to do very little in a fight. Unless that has changed drastically then Hawes probably presses him against the cage for large stretches en route to a decision win. | |||||
| Donald Cerrone | 8300 | Joe Lauzon | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +120 |
| Cowboy uses his length and Muay-Thai to tee off on opponents. Sometimes that's enough for him these days. He doesn't have many fights left in him at this point but Lauzon is pretty past his time. | |||||
| Damir Ismagulov | 8400 | Guram Kutateladze | Risky | -170 | +380 |
| Damir is a tight fighter with a an advanced striking game. He's a lot to handle for most in the UFC. Guram has big power but probably isn't a match in the technique department. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tim Means | 7300 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | +550 |
| The Dirty Bird is still plugging along. He'll have his hands full with the rangy Holland. If he can deploy some grappling that's been Holland's Achilles' heal and Means is crafty with it. | |||||
| Julian Marquez | 7700 | Gregory Rodrigues | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +275 |
| I've been hoping for a good spot to fade Marquez as a favorite but he's never healthy when the UFC has him in that spot it seems. Now they've gotten tired of matching him with cushier opponents and he's an underdog to the dangerous Rodrigues. He's found a way to win despite eating punishment and being in trouble often. Maybe he can do it again here. | |||||
| Guram Kutateladze | 7800 | Damir Ismagulov | Risky | +145 | +330 |
| We saw Damir get dropped in his last fight. He was able to rally and still take home a win but that chin bears watching. Guram hits like his Viking namesake. | |||||
| Maria Oliveira | 7000 | Gloria de Paula | Risky | +220 | +800 |
| In low level women's MMA it pays to back the underdog in the long run. It's hard to know when to jump on one so it's best to do it when the odds are wide. | |||||
| Joe Lauzon | 7900 | Donald Cerrone | Risky | +140 | +250 |
| It's hard to know what to expect from Lauzon after this long a lay off and looking fairly shot already. Cerrone is looking a bit shot himself though. If you don't stand right in front of him he has some struggles. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 7600 | Albert Duraev | Risky | +200 | +300 |
| The man has huge power and takes chances most aren't willing to. That combo will always lead to upsets. | |||||
| Roman Dolidze | 7500 | Kyle Daukaus | Risky | +205 | +500 |
| The one big flaw we've seen from Daukaus has been an over willingness to get hit by big shots to exchange. Dolidze does pack some power. | |||||
| Tony Kelley | 6800 | Adrian Yanez | Risky | +235 | +550 |
| This is exactly the kind of spot Kelley can pull an upset in. He's able to eat big punishment and come out the other side still cracking. If Yanez isn't ready for a dogfight that could be a problem. | |||||
| Danny Chavez | 6900 | Ricardo Ramos | Risky | +235 | +475 |
| If the Chavez that dominated in his debut shows up Ramos could be in trouble. When opponents have taken the fight to him Ramos has had trouble. | |||||
MMA DFS Example Lineup: UFC Austin
Live Dogs for UFC Austin
Emmett, Means, Marquez, Kutateladze, Oliveira, Lauzon
Stats & Picks for UFC Austin
| Calvin Kattar | vs | Josh Emmett |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
| 11 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 2 | Subs | 2 |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Donald Cerrone | vs | Joe Lauzon |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 36-16-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 28-16-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 17 | Subs | 17 |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tim Means | vs | Kevin Holland |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 32-12-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-7-0 (1 NC) |
| 19 | Knockouts | 13 |
| 5 | Subs | 5 |
| +240 | Vegas Odds | -285 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Joaquin Buckley | vs | Albert Duraev |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 0 | Subs | 9 |
| +200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Damir Ismagulov | vs | Guram Kutateladze |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 23-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 12 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 1 | Subs | 1 |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Julian Marquez | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 3 | Subs | 4 |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Adrian Yanez | vs | Tony Kelley |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 2 | Subs | 17 |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | vs | Natalia Silva |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-1 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 1 | Subs | 7 |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Court McGee | vs | Jeremiah Wells |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 22-10-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-1 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 5 | Subs | 4 |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ricardo Ramos | vs | Danny Chavez |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-1 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 7 | Subs | 0 |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Maria Oliveira | vs | Gloria de Paula |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 1 | Subs | 0 |
| +220 | Vegas Odds | -260 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Eddie Wineland | vs | Cody Stamann |
| $6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 24-15-1 | Record | Record: 19-5-1 |
| 15 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 4 | Subs | 2 |
| +420 | Vegas Odds | -540 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Phil Hawes | vs | Deron Winn |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 2 | Subs | 0 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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