MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Vegas 55
The UFC keeps the train rolling with another Fight Night offering this week. That means risky favorites and live underdogs for MMA DFS. You’ll need to lean into some variance and hit on the dogs that come through to take down tournaments. The MMA DFS Playbook features the top UFC Vegas 55 DFS plays, DFS picks, and stacking opportunities to help you cash in big tonight.
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Vegas 55
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -250/ +200 | +330/+500 |
| In a title shot eliminator we have two less than thrilling fighters. Holm is a sharp boxer and great athlete. She’ll dance around Vieira if she doesn’t get taken down. Vieira has a ground game but doesn’t rely on it enough. She’s been picked apart on the feet and not done enough to stop it. It’s a fine stack given that it’s very likely going the full five. Hopefully we get a decent pace. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jailton Almeida | 9400 | Parker Porter | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -280 |
| The biggest favorite of the night will also be the DFS chalk. Porter is tough cat but he gets hit much too easily and there’s only so much the human body can take. Barring a lapse in grappling defense Almeida cruises. | |||||
| Junyong Park | 9000 | Eryk Anders | Somewhat-Safe | -205 | +250 |
| The Iron Turtle gets a cushy match up here. Anders has some name recognition but doesn’t deliver much danger in fight. Park should be able to lean on him and might even snare a submission if we’re lucky. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 8900 | Vince Morales | Moderate | -240 | +330 |
| JMart will hold his usual edge in the range striking game. He hasn’t been consistent in the UFC, however. His best path to DFS value is to land something clean early or chop Morales down with leg kicks as many others have before. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chidi Njokuani | 8700 | Dusko Todorovic | Moderate | -250 | -105 |
| Chidi Bang Bang burst onto the UFC scene after a middling career abroad with a KO of the very durable Marc Andre-Berrault. He’ll have a shot to repeat that against the very upright Todorovic IF he can stay off his back. Takedown defense was one of the things that had held him back thus far. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 8300 | Polyana Viana | Moderate | -135 | +250 |
| Ricci is the rightful favorite given that she will have a gameplan and look to grapple. Viana is a wildcard but very much a beatable opponent for Ricci. If she dominates with wrestling it could mean solid DFS points. | |||||
| Omar Morales | 8400 | Uros Medic | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +140 |
| If Medic can’t land a big shot early he’s in big trouble. Morales has tight kickboxing and will work angles until you’re black and blue in the face. Medic wilted in his last fight when Jalin Turner was ready for the early barrage. Let’s see if Omar can duplicate that success. | |||||
| Joseph Holmes | 8800 | Alen Amedovski | Somewhat-Risky | -195 | -105 |
| It’s not that I’m so interested in Holmes. More that you have to be on anyone facing Amedovski. He got a contract for European cards and they haven’t happened since the pandemic. Now the UFC just has to feed him to some other low ranked name. | |||||
| Felipe Colares | 8600 | Chase Hooper | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +225 |
| When fighting Chase Hooper you need to do two things. Stay off the mat to avoid grappling exchanges and just fire 1-2s down the pipe at his chin. He wasn’t ready for the UFC and has been accumulating huge damage. That chin is very cracked. | |||||
| Michel Pereira | 8200 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +275 |
| We’ve seen a more focused Pereira and that’s a scary thing. His antics were the main thing holding him back. He’s a monster for the weight, well-rounded, and has big power. He also seems to have shored up his gas tank. He’s a legit contender and Ponz is a quality name to beat. | |||||
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 8000 | Michel Pereira | Risky | +120 | +350 |
| After a long layoff Ponz is rounding back into form, if a slightly more shot version of himself. He’s still got heart and some tricks up his sleeve. The chin and damage are wearing down though. He can only eat so much before Pereira is all over him. Unless he manages to gas out the Brazilian and come on late. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Vince Morales | 7300 | Jonathan Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +140 |
| Morales is a gritty vet that has to push through the technical disadvantages he gives up to most opponents. That makes him a very live dog because he has the heart and toughness to do just that. | |||||
| Dusko Todorovic | 7500 | Chidi Njokuani | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | |
| The UFC run for Dusko has been largely a disappointing one. He’s getting hit cleanly far too often and paying the price. Maybe that forces him to lean into his quality ground game against an opponent that’s struggled in the grappling department. | |||||
| Chase Hooper | 7600 | Felipe Colares | Risky | +150 | +380 |
| We only play Hooper as an underdog. His rush into the UFC has left him shell-shocked and his chin is highly suspect. The kid has heart, though. He’s continued to find sneaky submissions to bail himself out when the fire gets hottest. Colares isn’t someone that is immune to such a turn of events in a fight he’s winning. | |||||
| Uros Medic | 7800 | Omar Morales | Risky | +120 | +200 |
| Medic comes out and turns up the heat. That melts some opponents but got him in big trouble against Jalin Turner. Morales is a quality kickboxer and not usually someone you can overwhelm on the feet. His struggles were in the endurance department but that was down a weight class. | |||||
| Parker Porter | 6800 | Jailton Almeida | Risky | +435 | +700 |
| Porter will need all of his toughness in this tilt. He’s got it in spades but it’s going to be ugly. If he can get Almeida to gas out and then put him on his back he might be in business. | |||||
| Polyana Viana | 7900 | Tabatha Ricci | Risky | +115 | +300 |
| Viana seems impossible to handicap. We expect her to cruise and she gets dominated by a weak opponent. Then she comes out and pulls off surprising upsets. Her BJJ is high level and that’s what makes her dangerous. Women’s MMA and arm bars from bottom go together like peas and carrots. | |||||
| Alen Amedovski | 7400 | Joseph Holmes | Risky | +165 | +300 |
| As terrible as Amedovski is, Holmes is very green. There’s some small chance he decides to brawl and gets winged. | |||||
MMA DFS Example Lineup for UFC Vegas 55
Live Dogs for UFC Vegas 55
Viera, Morales, Todorovic, Hooper, Medic, Porter, Viana
Stats & Picks for UFC Vegas 55
| Holly Holm | vs | Ketlen Vieira |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 0 | Subs | 4 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | vs | Michel Pereira |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 29-5-0 | Record | Record: 27-11-0 (2 NC) |
| 2 | Knockouts | 15 |
| 4 | Subs | 6 |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Chidi Njokuani | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 13 |
| 7 | Subs | 1 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Polyana Viana | vs | Tabatha Ricci |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 3 | Subs | 8 |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Eryk Anders | vs | Junyong Park |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 2 | Subs | 1 |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Joseph Holmes | vs | Alen Amedovski |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 3 | Subs | 5 |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jailton Almeida | vs | Parker Porter |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 15 |
| 0 | Subs | 6 |
| -600 | Vegas Odds | +435 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Omar Morales | vs | Uros Medic |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 3 | Subs | 5 |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jonathan Martinez | vs | Vince Morales |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 2 | Subs | 2 |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Chase Hooper | vs | Felipe Colares |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 10-2-1 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 2 | Subs | 5 |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Elise Reed | vs | Sam Hughes |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 5 | Subs | 0 |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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