NASCAR DFS Playbook: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Howdy Howdy Everyone! It’s everyone’s favorite sidekick stepping in for Selz as he’s moving into a new home this week. I could simply say play everyone from the rear, draw names out of a hat, throw darts at the wall, picks drivers based on your favorite colors, etc. But we’ll be adults about this and present you with the logically best plays for Saturday night’s race from Daytona… Until the wreck and we all go to bed angry.

Matt has gone ahead and published his Track Breakdown, Rankings, and Best Bets for Saturday’s race so I’ll cover the standard DFS Playbook and Core Plays at the bottom. 

Saturday night’s race is scheduled for 160 laps broken into 50-50-60 stages with a competition caution on lap 20. So we have 112 dominator points in play but we know that number will likely be below 100 given all the cautions we’ll likely see. Daytona is pretty tough for DFS. You can stack the back of the field (check out the NASCAR DFS Discord for #stacktheback lineups from myself and Ed Raus), but you likely do need to mix in some drivers starting in the top 20. Stacking the rear is perfectly fine for Cash games, but you do need to take some chances in GPP’s. Why? Because of the Big One…

We’re bound to see a Big One almost every race. Even with the new package, we’ll still likely see a big wreck or two, but the different package is mostly designed to decrease the number of cars that wreck. I don’t know if it’ll necessarily work but we shall see…

Driver Pool

Joey Logano ($10,600; Starting P22) Logano is the most expensive driver this week on DraftKings. He offers PD and he’s on a team that traditionally brings some of the best cars to Daytona. Logano’s last three races at Daytona haven’t ended the way he wanted, that being in an accident. He was running up front for the 500 back in February but got into a wreck with his teammate, Brad Keselowski. In his last five races here he’s led a total of 119 laps which is actually somewhat impressive and this week we get him starting outside the top 20, which he hasn’t done since 2015.

Austin Dillon ($10,300; Starting P27) Another driver that will be popular this week. Dillon is a very good plate racer with a handful of top tens and top fives at Daytona including a win at the Daytona 500 in 2018. He’s also on the playoff bubble so he will be aggressive in trying to get a win. You can either like that or hate it. He will be heavily-owned because of the PD but knowing he can lock up a playoff spot at a track he’s previously won at will motivate him even more and possibly drive up ownership. I’m only doing three lineups so I’m taking the fade approach and hoping he gets caught in a wreck. If building more lineups than me you probably want exposure here.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000; Starting P10) Keselowski comes with a ton of variance at this track. Since winning here in July of 2016, he’s wrecked in seven of the last nine races but he was running second on the final lap here in February before he and Logano connected and wrecked a good portion of the top ten. That being said, this is still a Penske car and this whole team is in play for Saturday’s race. He won at Talladega earlier this year from this same starting spot and that remains his only win of the season.

Denny Hamlin ($9,400; Starting P3) If there were such a thing as a “safe” play at Daytona, it might very well be Hamlin. He won the Daytona 500 in 2016, 2019, and 2020. Since 2014, in 15 races he has ten finishes inside the top six at Daytona. We don’t typically see too many dominators at superspeedways, but Hamlin can lead plenty of laps Saturday night. He’s also led over 220 laps in the last five races at Daytona. It’s strange that he has such consistent solid results, but we won’t complain about it. He’s a driver to consider a dominator in GPP’s.

Aric Almirola ($9,300; Starting P19) Almirola is a pretty solid plate racer although the results at his last handful of Daytona races haven’t been that great. But he does have a win here and at Talladega. Ed and I alluded to the fact that he’s already in the playoffs from his win at New Hampshire so motivation may be in question, but this is still a spot worth getting exposure to him. Sure, he’s pricy but he offers PD and has a solid resume at superspeedways.

Kaz Grala ($8,900; Starting P38) Grala's being added as a late addition since I've been putting him in my builds as a PD play. He's in a Kaulig Racing car and this team sets up their caars very well for Daytona and Talladega. Justin Haley won the Xfinity race after all earlier today. I'm only playing three lineups but as of 4:00pm ET Grala is in two of them so you can arguably consider him a core play.

Ross Chastain ($8,200; Starting P29) Chastain’s another “win and your win” driver as he’s pretty far outside the playoff picture. This is a great starting spot and price tag. He’s flashed top ten upside plenty this year and at this price he’s fine for cash games and GPP’s. Chalky? Absolutely. Chastain had some good runs at Daytona in the Xfinity and Truck series, and he finished seventh in the Daytona 500 back in February. He’s another solid driver to look at on Saturday as long as he can run a clean race.

Corey Lajoie ($7,400; Starting P33) In nine races at Daytona, Lajoie has an average starting position of 26.4 and an average finishing position of 17.3 and Matt has him ranked as a top ten play for Saturday’s race. He also has three top ten’s in his last four races here. At Talladega he has an average starting position of 32.1 and an average finishing position of 20.4 so he knows how to safely move up at these tracks and that’s reflected in his price tag on DK. He does need to crack the top 20 to hit 5X value and while he’s shown to do that on a somewhat consistent basis, we can’t assume he makes it there. I do slightly prefer him more in Cash games than GPP’s because the secret is out on Lajoie when it comes to these tracks.

Tyler Reddick ($7,300; Starting P17) Reddick is currently in the playoff field but that could change based on the outcome of this race. He will be just as aggressive and motivated to win as any driver currently needing a win to get in. It is worth mentioning that in four races at Daytona in the Cup series he’s finished outside the top 25 in all of them, but he has finished seventh in back-to-back Talladega races. The upside is there but again it boils down to track position at the end.

Ryan Newman ($7,000; Starting P23) This could very well be Rocketman’s last shot at making the playoffs as rumors of his retirement have made their rounds. He wrecked in his last two races here, but still has a good track record and starts outside the top 20. He has plenty of experience with plate racing and if this is a swan song for him then he’ll do what he can to be running at the front in the last 20 laps. He has five top tens here in his last eight races. Selz has him as a top five play on Saturday night.

Bubba Wallace ($6,500; Starting P20) In eight career races at Daytona, Wallace has an average finish of 11.42 and that includes two wrecks. He was the runner-up to Austin Dillon in 2018, and he’s finished top 20 in four straight races. We typically don’t target Bubba too much for DFS but he’s a value play this week with some PD. Are we a little concerned about him starting in the middle of the field? Sure, but he’s a GPP target of mine and one that might carry low ownership.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000; Starting P12) Stenhouse is starting a little high, but he loves plate racing and it’s somewhat insulting that David Starr is more expensive than him. The problem is that he is known for wrecking cars and it arguably cost him his last ride at Roush Fenway. But he has won this race before and ownership could be soft given his starting spot and reputation. I will likely utilize him in one of my builds for Saturday’s race. If he grabs a top ten, which he is more than capable of, you’re getting 6X value.

Anthony Alfredo ($5,800; Starting P32) We laugh at the talent level but he’s teammates with the next driver we’ll get to who managed to win the Daytona 500 earlier this year. A top 20 returns 6X value with Alfredo but he really needs to avoid the chaos we normally see here. By no means is he a value play you want to be heavy on, but it doesn’t hurt to use him to differentiate. 

Michael McDowell ($5,700; Starting P18) Over his last five races at Daytona he’s finished in the top 15 including a win at this year’s Daytona 500. McDowell followed that win up by finishing third at Talladega in April. Matt has him ranked SECOND in his rankings for DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s a lot of high praise but considering a top 15 exceeds 5X value and a top ten exceeds 7X value, the ranking could make sense.

Justin Haley ($5,500; Starting P28) Justin Haley is one of the best plate racers at the Xfinity level. He won this race a year ago for Xfinity, he swept both Xfinity Talladega races in 2020, and he won the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in the Cup series two years ago. Despite all that, I don’t know if I’m completely confident to use him in Cash games, but he’s cheap with PD on his side.

Chris Buescher ($5,200; Starting P13) The starting spot is quite high and far from ideal in cash games so the exposure will be kept to GPP’s. But I do like Buescher this week. Even if he goes backward early on, he’s a finishing position play for Saturday’s action. A top 15 finish returns 5X value, but Buescher is a guy who has finished in the top ten in five of his last eight races here. He also has three top five’s in that span as well. A top ten gives him 6.7X value and a top five yields 9X value. This is a low-owned GPP driver to target.

Core Drivers

*Yes, you can make this into a lineup on DraftKings and probably FanDuel (but with five drivers), doesn’t mean you should though*