NASCAR DFS Playbook: Go Bowling 250

Happy Weekend everybody! We’ve got a doubleheader for some racing on Saturday so it’s due to be a big day with college football on tap as well. Before we dive in, it is September 11th and it’s important to remember what matters most. We get to sit around and complain about the chalk PD plays that bust. But hopefully today we can put everything into perspective a little bit and remember what a lot of people lost 20 years ago. It’s a great opportunity to show appreciation for first responders and you have to imagine NASCAR has a nice tribute planned for Saturday’s races.

So let’s discuss Richmond. If you listened to this week’s podcast, you’ll know I have my reservations about chasing too much PD here. Track position matters. This is a short 0.75-mile D-shaped track. You can’t afford to lose too many positions here. Cars get lapped and fall too far behind. At least year’s doubleheader for Xfinity, in the second race only 14 cars finished on the lead lap and 17 of the 36 drivers finished two laps down. In the first race of the doubleheader only nine cars finished on the lead lap with 21 of the 36 drivers finishing two or more laps down. The trend continues if you go back to the race here two years ago. Only a dozen drivers finished on the lead lap here while 21 of the 38 drivers finished two or more laps down. So be smart with who you target for PD. We do have a stacked field for this Xfinity series race with plenty of expensive options offering PD.

Saturday afternoon’s race is slated for 250 laps broken into 75-75-100 lap segments. The competition caution will follow lap 35 and we may see a few of the back markers fall off the lead lap, but I wouldn’t count them out at that point just yet. We likely have 160 total dominator points for this race so definitely expose your lineups to one-to-three potential dominators.

As always the driver pool below may feature some updates or additional drivers leading up to the race. I will be in the NASCAR DFS Discord around 12:00pm ET to field any questions!

Driver Pool 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,000; Starting P30) Dale Jr. is running in his annual Xfinity series race. Over the last three years when he’s made his once-a-year race, he’s finished in the top five. Historically, Richmond’s been a great track for Jr. He won here three times in the Cup level and he won this race in 2016. In his last three Xfinity Richmond races he’s led 224 laps including 96 three years ago when he finished fourth. But keep in mind, he was starting much higher in those races so he had easier access to dominator points. Fastest laps will be available to him, but laps led may not present themselves to him until stages two or three. The price tag is high and needs a whopping 60 points to hit value. Another top five finish would yield 64 points.

Josh Berry ($11,600; Starting P33) What to do with Josh Berry… Decisions, decisions… This isn’t Berry’s first race here but it is his first in about six years. In his lone race here he finished seventh but he also started fifth. Berry is a very good short track racer. He won at Martinsville earlier in the year, but that was in JR Motorsports equipment. He’ll be in the 31-car for Jordan Anderson Racing and while the equipment isn’t great he has logged a couple top tens in this ride. I think he can pilot this ride to another top ten but it’s not a lock. Tread carefully.

Ty Gibbs ($11,200; Starting P15) This is a great spot for Gibbs. He offers PD, shouldn’t fall off the lead lap if he runs a clean race, and he has a shot at some dominator points as well. He’s won three races on a part-time schedule with top fives in 8-of-12. Plus, he’s in great equipment and should get another top five finish. I will note that on tracks where Gibbs hasn’t had any experience, he has had some troubles. But those came at more difficult tracks like Darlington and Michigan. I don’t think that happens this week. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.

Austin Cindric ($10,300; Starting P1) With so many dominator points available, of course I’m including the defending Xfinity series champion when he’s on the pole. Cindric has raced here six times and hasn’t finished worse than 13th and he also has four top five finishes including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2019. He led 64 laps in the first race of last year’s doubleheader and is a candidate to win Saturday afternoon. I’m going to touch on Daniel Hemric real quick because I do like him in today’s race. I’m just sick of getting burned by him. He’s $300 cheaper than Cindric and starting P12. He’s led at least ten laps in all four of his Xfinity races at Richmond. He’s finished in the top four three times and 29th the other race. It’s also worth mentioning that as great as he has been in this series, he hasn’t raced here at this level in three years and we know he comes with variance.

Justin Allgaier ($9,700; Starting P4) Allgaier has been flat out AWESOME at Richmond over his last nine races here. He swept last year’s doubleheader including 213 laps led between both races. He has six top five finishes in his last nine races here and is the favorite to win this race across most sportsbooks.

Sam Mayer ($8,500; Starting P38) It feels like Mayer will either be chalk or the field will fade him. Most people will see that Mayer is running in a BJ McLeod Motorsports car and they’ll probably be turned off by that. However, this is basically be a JR Motorsports ride and they’ll be running five cars essentially. Mayer thrives on shorter tracks as we saw last year when he almost won the Bristol Truck series race and then he followed that up with a win at Gateway. He basically hits value with a top 20 finish. He’s starting further back and as referenced above there are concerns with those drivers, but Mayer’s equipment is a plus and the price tag is probably too cheap.

Ty Dillon ($8,300; Starting P19) Dillon is in the 02-car for Our Motorsports as Brett Moffitt is still trying to recover from some illness. I don’t think he has to go to the rear for a driver change because he was listed on the entry list. Regardless, I’ll confirm on Saturday. The equipment is actually decent as we’ve seen Moffitt have some good runs in it and Dillon did finish 13th at Darlington last week. He’s a nice pivot off Mayer in the event Mayer does land on more ownership. A top ten is on the table for Dillon this weekend.

Riley Herbst ($7,900; Starting P20) I can’t believe I’m going this route but I do like Herbst quite a bit this week. He has an average finish here of 17.6, which is okay but that’s taking into account a wreck last year where he then finished 34th. He finished seventh in the first two stages and in his other two races here he’s finished in the top ten. I honestly don’t think Herbst carries significant ownership this week and I do like him at lot for GPP’s. Prior to last week’s race at Darlington he did rattle off three straight top ten finishes. Knowing my luck and how much exposure I want to him, I’m sure he’ll wreck…

Jeb Burton ($7,600; Starting P6) Jeb is in a phenomenal spot this week and he’s a great GPP play. Few people ever play Jeb because his price is typically higher and he’s usually starting pretty high. He’s coming off back-to-back top five finishes. Not to mention, he managed to finish second and lead 12 laps in the second race of last year’s doubleheader. Now he’s with Kauling Racing and this team had a great showing last year at Richmond. If he gets another top five, he’s hitting value but there’s a realistic shot at some dominator points for Burton also and ownership will be light.

JJ Yeley ($7,400; Starting P29) What a wonky price tag for Yeley. Last week at Darlington he was $9,200 starting P34 and to know surprise he finished 13th and paid off handsomely for DFS. A week later, starting P29 in the same car and he’s $1,800 cheaper? Because he’s starting five spots higher? I don’t get it. Now they could be tempting us because I will acknowledge that this feels like a trap. I mentioned my concerns with targeting too many drivers starting deep in the field. I will be getting exposure here, but I’ll try to be responsible. Yeley has gained PD in every race he’s run this year. The fewest spots he gained came at Martinsville where he only gained nine spots. But we’ve seen him regularly gain anywhere from 12-to-20 spots in a given race. If he finishes 17th he can hit value and we know he has top 15 upside in him. But it is worth noting that in his last six races here, he only has one finish higher than 19th. Yeley’s a tough one to get a read on this week.

Ryan Sieg ($6,700; Starting P11) Yep, we’ve got another week where Ryan Sieg is in play. We got a decent showing out of him last week although he fell short of 5X value. However, he’s under $7K on DraftKings and this is another one of those tracks where he’s had some success. Over his last four races here he’s finished in the top 15 in all of them including a pair of 12th place finished and a top five. He’s really only live for GPP’s but if he can stay on the lead lap then there’s potential here.

Stephen Leicht ($5,500; Starting P36) If you choose to roster Leicht you’re coming to terms with the facts that he probably isn’t finishing in the top 20 and he’s definitely finishing a couple laps down. But if he does finish, he’s in prime position to gain a few spots. He’s run three races this year and he’s finished in the top 30 of them all while gaining at least five spots of PD. He finished 22nd in the second race of last year’s doubleheader and I’ll even take a finish in the top 28 if he’s paired with the right dominators.

David Starr ($5,400; Starting P37) If you subject yourself to dumpster diving this low on Saturday you’re just hoping these bottom dwellers gain a handful of spots and finish in the top 30. Prior to last week, Starr had actually finished in the top 22 at New Hampshire, Michigan, and Daytona. And it looks like he’ll be in the 66-car which is normally thought of as garbage, but he’s gotten the most out of it. You just hope he can get a clean run out of this ride.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,300; Starting P32) Pick your poison in this range. Weatherman’s definitely not finishing on the lead lap in this race. But in last year’s doubleheader, he finished 20th and 26th after starting 30th and 36th respectively. I’m not predicting another ten spots gained in PD but you’re just hoping for maybe a top 25. 

Core Drivers

It is worth mentioning that I truly don’t feel like there’s a solid core of drivers in the mid-tier or value tiers but currently those are the drivers in those ranges I’m heaviest on.