NFL DFS Week 5: Sunday Morning Showdown Slate
Published: Oct 08, 2021
The NFL returns to London for some American football across the pond. Unfortunately we have to watch the Jets and Falcons, but nobody ever said “No” to early morning football. It’s a great way to start the week and we’re treated to a London game these next two weeks. Here’s what we’re looking at for Sunday morning’s Showdown contests.
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3); Over/Under 45.0 points
Atlanta Falcons Injuries
- WR Calvin Ridley – OUT
- WR Russell Gage – OUT
- S Erik Harris – DOUBTFUL
- DT Marlon Davidson – OUT
- CB Avery Williams – DOUBTFUL
New York Jets Injuries
- CB Brandin Echols – QUESTIONABLE
- DT Nathan Shepherd – QUESTIONABLE
- S Adrian Colbert – OUT
- TE Tyler Kroft – OUT
- WR Jeff Smith – OUT
Here are some tips and guidelines that I follow when building Showdown lineups. You’ll see these reiterated throughout the article as just a reminder.
- Don’t bother with a D/ST or Kicker in the Captain/MVP slot.
- If you have a pass catcher (wide receiver or tight end) in the captain spot, you should also have his quarterback as a Flex option. Most of my optimal lineups in Showdown contests have usually had a pass catcher in the captain slot so capitalize with the appropriate correlation.
- Don’t have more than 12% exposure to either Quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot.
- If you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP spot, you should have at least two of his pass catchers in the Flex.
- Running backs are okay in the Captain/MVP slot, but I typically don’t go over 15% exposure in that slot with this position. I reserve heavier exposure for pass-catching RB’s and absolute studs.
Captain/MVP Candidates
Quarterbacks – You certainly can go the route of playing either Zach Wilson or Matt Ryan in your captain spot. Typically though, in large field GPP’s, a quarterback as your captain is only optimal about 13-15% of the time and that’s usually when a running quarterback went off. If I had to guess we’ll likely see each as captain in about 8-10% of lineups in GPP’s. That’s about where my Captain exposure will land on both Ryan and Wilson. They’re much better suited as Flex plays since neither offers a ton of rushing upside.
Kyle Pitts – He’ll probably be the most popular captain on tomorrow’s slate. I’d say he likely lands in about 20-25% exposure as a captain, which is fairly high. I may try to be lighter than the field. It’s obviously a great spot for Pitts with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage ruled out. He could see double-digit targets and possibly find the end zone. But you have to imagine the Jets account for his presence and scheme appropriately for him. I may aim for about 12-15% exposure in the captain slot, but that’s just me. He’s a big target for Matt Ryan. Perhaps a trip to London can give him the breakout performance we’ve been waiting for. On DraftKings, he’ll only cost $10,800 as your captain and I can see people jumping all over that.
Corey Davis – These next two players are where I will aim to be heavier than the field. Wilson loves targeting Corey Davis. He has at least seven targets in three of four games to start the year and the Falcons are terrible against opposing wide receivers and the secondary is a little depleted heading into Sunday’s game. Assuming this game stays close, we’re looking at an opportunity for the Jets to pick apart the Falcons secondary through the air.
Jamison Crowder – Everything that was said about Davis can be applied to Crowder. In his 2021 debut last week he caught seven-of-nine targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. It was refreshing to see him get such a heavy target share in his first game especially after all the contract storylines we heard during training camp. For both Davis and Crowder I’m looking to have them each around 20% exposure as my captain.
Flex Options
Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson is a guy I might be light on for this Showdown. I anticipate people chasing last week’s performance and while it was great, he’s way too efficient at the moment and it’s wildly unsustainable. He only played 23 snaps last week and found the end zone three times. With no Ridley or Gage, sure he’ll be involved, but I’m going to zig while others zag. He’s not someone I want to play as my captain because of the regression he’s due for. But I will have a respectable amount of shares with him as a Flex.
Mike Davis – Davis has frustrated fantasy owners in season-long leagues, but in DFS he’s provided an okay floor. Despite the Cordarrelle Patterson resurgence, Davis has still had at least 15 touches in each game. He hasn’t done much with that workload, but it’s still there. Touchdowns are hard to predict, workload really isn’t. In his last three games he’s caught all 13 of his targets out of the backfield.
Michael Carter – I don’t love the $6,400 price tag on DraftKings but I do like how his involvement in the offense has trended as the season has progressed. He scored his first touchdown last week and he was on the field for 50% of the snaps. He’s also been getting more involved in the passing game as well, which aids his value a little bit. He should be in line for at least a dozen touches in this game.
Elijah Moore – It’s quite possible we get Moore at incredibly low ownership. He was inactive last week in Crowder’s debut, but Moore does not carry an injury designation this week. He’s only $5,000 on DraftKings and he is someone that Wilson looks to as a deep target. He had 18 targets through his first three games and could be an afterthought going into Sunday morning’s game. You can sprinkle him in as a captain in about 5% of your lineups because I don’t see too many people playing him in that spot but be disciplined at least.
Defense/Special Teams and Kickers – Both D/ST’s and Kickers are in play. My suggestion is only play one in each lineup. I don’t really like playing a D/ST and a kicker together, especially if the lineup doesn’t correlate. Not that it needs to be mentioned, but just to cover my bases again, you don’t need to play these positions in the Captain spot. These are nice paydown options but it’s rare that we see an optimal lineup featuring a D/ST and a kicker in the same build. Here’s a little blurb I wrote up earlier this week for the waiver wire article regarding both defenses…
If we’re being honest, both these defenses are terrible. I had much more faith in Atlanta coming into this season, but Dean Pees hasn’t been able to turn them around just yet. The Falcons and Jets will travel to London for the first of two games across the pond this year for the NFL. Now there have certainly been a couple shootouts in the London games, but we’ve also seen some teams struggle. In the four London games in 2017, the losing teams scored 7, 0, 0, and 16 points. The next year, the losing team scored 3, 19, and 18 points but it’s worth mentioning neither of those games totaled over 43 points. 2019 saw a couple shootouts, but a couple offensive duds as well:
- Raiders 24, Bears 21
- Panthers 37, Buccaneers 26
- Rams 24, Bengals 10
- Texans 26, Jaguars 3
Value Punts
Hayden Hurst – Given the state of the pass catching group, I’d be interested in seeing Atlanta run more 12 personnel and get both Hurst and Pitts on the field. Hurst has been used sparingly, but he does have nine catches on ten targets and last week he caught all four of his targets. He likely needs to find the end zone to really return value if he’s only getting four targets, but I like Hurst as a leverage play especially since most DFS players will likely flock to the next player on the list.
Olamide Zaccheaus – OZ is going to be very popular with Ridley and Gage out. He has 13 targets over his last four games and he’s cheap enough where he’s easy to squeeze into your lineup. The game script could be there for Atlanta to throw a lot and it’s possible he gets six-to-eight targets and he’s only $1,800 on DraftKings. He will be the cheap player that everyone plays in their lineup. I’m okay with having a couple lineups with him as a captain because he provides so much flexibility with your salary, but I’m not going crazy with that particular exposure. In this price range you can also look at Tajae Sharpe as well.
Wayne Gallman – I will let everyone flock to OZ as the cheap paydown. Sure I’ll have plenty of exposure there, but Gallman is a guy I’m very interested in. He’s only $200 on DraftKings and in his first appearance in 2021 he had six carries for 29 yards after being a healthy scratch for the first three games. The Jets are pretty bad against the run and if he can vulture a touchdown that’ll be great for his value. Not quite sure why he’s basically free, but this doesn’t mean he’s a free square. If he finds the end zone and gets maybe 30 yards there’s a good chance he’s in the optimal lineup.
Player News
ESPN’s Ben Solak believes DK Metcalf is an “uncertain fit” with Aaron Rodgers.
Solak raised questions about whether Rodgers is a feasible fit in Arthur Smith’s offensive system, which includes lots of under-center play-action passing — a play Rodgers has traditionally rejected because he doesn’t like turning his back to the defense. Solak said Metcalf’s imprecise route running could be a major bugaboo for the perfection-demanding Rodgers in 2025. “The ex-Seahawk is one of the less precise route runners in the NFL, and Rodgers famously demands perfection from his receivers as they run his hand-selected variety of highly specific routes,” he said. “It’s hard to imagine a 17-game season in which there is no sideline or postgame blowup between Rodgers and his top pass catcher.”
Steelers signed QB Aaron Rodgers, formerly of the Jets, to a one-year, $13.65 million contract.
The deal includes $10 million in guaranteed money and $5.85 million in playing time and team performance incentives, bringing the potential total value to $19.5 million. It was previously reported that Rodgers would play for around $10 million this season with his new deal in Pittsburgh bringing that much in guarantees. The veteran quarterback would have made $37.5 million playing with the Jets this season, but the team has since moved on in favor of a cheaper contract with Justin Fields. Rodgers should not be expected to throw more than 30-33 times per-game based on the strength of Pittsburgh’s outstanding defense, which limits his fantasy appeal to deeper leagues and two-quarterback formats.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports WR Chris Conley has retired.
Conley, who appeared in 23 games for the 49ers over the last two seasons, is hanging up his cleats after a 10-year career in the NFL. Drafted in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft by the Chiefs, Conley is perhaps best known for his time in Jacksonville. The 32-year-old receiver had 775 yards on 47 catches and five touchdowns in 2019 with the Jaguars. Conley is heading to film school at the University of Georgia, according to Rapoport.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper said Chargers UDFA TE Stevo Klotz “feels like a lock for the practice squad, with the potential to make an impact as an elevation player during the season.”
This one is mostly for dynasty managers. Klotz has been drawing positive reviews from beat reporters thus far. Klotz never made a large impact as a receiver at his alma mater, Iowa State, but performed well as a blocker. Per Popper, he notably “caught five passes in Tuesday’s team drills,” though, and Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh he could be an “above-average core special teams” player. The front office curiously signed him to a three-year, $2.97 million contract, albeit a team-friendly one.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said the Ravens could sign Isaiah Likely to a contract extension.
The comment comes during an NFL Insider’s spot in which Rapoport broke down the Ravens’ need to extend and restructure Lamar Jackson’s current deal. One week ago, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said he wants to see Likely “be an All-Pro” this season, helpfully providing the 25-year-old tight end with positive commentary for the negotiating table. Likely has proven himself as an above-average receiver at the position but has been limited by his sidekick role behind Mark Andrews. Hopefully, all this talk about lofty expectations and a big payday signals a breakout campaign for Likely. He is scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season, and if Harbaugh plans to feature him in the passing attack, it would make sense for the team to get a deal done beforehand.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that a contract extension for Lamar Jackson is “on the docket for the Ravens.”
Rapoport suggests that extending Jackson well before his contract’s scheduled end following the 2027 season was all part of the plan. The Ravens inserted “really high” salary cap numbers partway through the deal, in order to facilitate Jackson’s $72.8 million prorated signing bonus. Indeed, his hefty $43.5 million salary cap number in 2025 looks small compared to the consecutive $74.5 million salary cap hits scheduled in each of the next two seasons. Signing Jackson to an extension would help free up salary cap space and allow the Ravens to “potentially do” some other deals, including an extension for TE Isaiah Likely.