NASCAR DFS Playbook: Andy's Frozen Custard 335

My apologies for not being able to partake in this week’s NASCAR DFS podcast. My full-time job is in limbo at the moment due to a labor dispute, so I haven’t been able to attend to my Fantasy Alarm duties as much as I’d like. So this will be a nice escape for the time being. NASCAR returns to Texas, which could be a snoozefest. Texas is your run of the mill 1.5-mile track and basically just one groove. Fortunately, after we’re done with Texas, we’ve got three great races to finish the season at Kansas, Martinsville, and then Phoenix so I think we can survive this race.

Here’s a look at the current Round of Eight standings…

The good thing to take away from this race is that there will be plenty of laps made available for dominators. The stage is set for 200 total laps broken into 45-45-110 lap segments with a competition caution set for lap 20. We’re probably looking at 120 or so dominator points. I will try to be in the chat leading up to this race, but I will also be at work for my full-time job so I will do my best to field DFS questions leading up to lineup lock.

Driver Pool

Kaz Grala ($11,200; Starting P32) Grala will be stepping into Jordan Anderson’s 31-car on Saturday and personally I don’t think I’ll be too heavy on him, but I’ll mix in some exposure. He’s an obvious PD play starting this far back and we know the equipment is good. Ty Dillon managed to get this car to a top ten at Vegas and earlier in the year Tyler Reddick drove it to a top five at Charlotte. This is an awfully steep price to pay for Grala when he’s not in particularly the best equipment and he’s not a full-time driver. I’ll likely be light on him, but I can also imagine most players fading Grala given the other PD options available.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700; Starting P10) With the trucks still off for a couple more weeks, JHN will be stepping into the 54-car for Joe Gibbs Racing. This is an interesting combination. Earlier this year, JHN won the Truck series race at Texas and Kyle Busch won the Xfinity Texas race in the 54-car. At the Xfinity series, JHN has a pair of top fives in three races here and he also won at Kansas so 1.5-mile tracks are his bread and butter. If there’s one driver outside the playoff picture that can win this race, it’s Nemechek.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500; Starting P1) I like Dinger, don’t love him this week though. He’s starting on the pole and a great candidate to lead laps early on if he can get the clean air and run away with the lead. But I just don’t think that happens this weekend. I think he’s fine for GPP’s because he’s one of the three best drivers in the field, but I’m not particularly excited about this play.

Justin Allgaier ($10,200; Starting P6) Allgaier and the next guy on this list are probably my two favorite dominators for Saturday’s race. He is rolling right now with eight straight top ten finishes including five top five finishes in that span. He finished second at Vegas a few weeks back after leading 90 laps and he was the runner-up here over the summer. He’s led 156 laps here in his last three races at Texas. Expect him to show up with speed and contend on Saturday.

Austin Cindric ($9,800; Starting P2) Cindric is starting on the front row and this is one of the rare instances where I like Cindric over Allmendinger this season. Cindric historically runs very well at Texas. In four straight races and five of his last six, he’s finished fourth or better including a win. He’s also led 106 laps in that span, which isn’t a large number across four races, but that doesn’t mean he can’t dominate the race on Sunday especially starting P2. He hasn’t won in almost two months, but he’s collected plenty of dominator points since the playoffs started and he finished third here earlier in the year. 

Noah Gragson ($9,600; Starting P5) Historically speaking, this isn’t Gragson’s best track. But he was caught in an accident and had a DVP in back-to-back races so that drives down his average finish here. I’ve mentioned this numerous times when writing up Gragson, but he’s peaking at the right time. A year ago he finished second but was cruising to a victory before a phenomenal move by Harrison Burton cost him the win and it ultimately cost Gragson a shot at the championship in Phoenix. Look for some redemption on Saturday.

Brett Moffitt ($9,400; Starting P26) I think most people will look at the price tag and scoff and save $800 by going to Riley Herbst. Moffitt grabbed a top ten earlier this year and in last year’s races at Texas he finished 14th and 16th. And for what it’s worth, he had a pair of top five finishes in the Truck series at Texas in 2020. Texas makes for some boring racing, but Moffitt tends to do well here. If you can stomach the price tag he could pay off.

Daniel Hemric ($8,800; Starting P3) This is too cheap for a driver that could potentially dominate this race. Hemric finished second in the first and second stages back in June while leading 13 laps before finishing fourth. He also finished third here back in the Spring of 2018. He has a pair of runner-up finishes at Kansas, and he almost won Atlanta three months ago. He routinely ends up in the losers lounge, but he’s capable of a top five finish and collecting some dominator points along the way.

Riley Herbst ($8,600; Starting P20) Herbst is always a risky play, but he’s a mid-range driver offering PD and he’s out of the playoff hunt. So what does he have to drive for, but just a solid finish? Herbst didn’t finish either race in 2020 at Texas, but he started and finished 12th earlier this year. Big deal, right? Most people could take the discount and play him despite the resume. He’s a fringe Cash game play, but firmly in play for GPP’s.

JJ Yeley ($7,400; Starting P33) Yeley’s far from a lock, but I like that he’s back in the 17-car once again. He wrecked at Vegas a few weeks ago which is certainly concerning since he hasn’t run too many similar tracks this year. He did finished 12th at Miami and 22nd at Darlington offering PD. Texas is a track where he has grabbed a couple top 15 finishes, but he hasn’t run here in two years and in other equipment he’s certainly had issues finishing the race. In 22 races here he’s failed to finish ten of them. Again, those were different teams and different equipment so just keep it in mind before you go too heavy on him.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300; Starting P22) In typical Ryan Sieg fashion he finished 11th here over the summer. This is after back-to-back finishes of 31st and 29th at Texas. But there’s still upside here. In 2019, he grabbed a pair of top ten finishes and he has plenty of top 20 finishes as well. I say it’s likely that he grabs another top 15, but I don’t hate the idea of being light on Sieg. Usually when Sieg presents himself as a good play is when he crushes us in DFS.

Tanner Berryhill ($6,900; Starting P27) Berryhill ran this car at Texas earlier this year… And wrecked out. Bummer. But he was running in the top 15 at certain points in the race which is a testament to this car. The 23-car for Our Motorsports has been solid this year, but the finishes have been inconsistent depending on the driver. If he can move up ten spots he’s hitting value and you have to imagine in this price range, most people will flock to either Sieg or Tommy Joe Martins.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400; Starting P24) Martins is affordable and he offers PD and this is one of his best tracks. He finished tenth here a year ago and has four straight finishes 21st or better. It’s bizarre that it takes such a boring intermediate track for TJM to find his groove (or the one groove available on this track), but he’s GPP eligible and could come off as a popular play in that format. He’s also had some decent runs at Kansas, which is a slightly similar track so this may not be a complete fluke. 

Bayley Currey ($5,200; Starting P39) Currey will likely be the popular bargain play this weekend. He’s too cheap for a driver offering PD in JD Motorsports equipment. He finished 13th a couple weeks ago at Vegas, another 1.5-mile track in the same car. His P40 earlier this year is by far his worst finish at Texas in his career. Prior to that race he rolled off five straight finishes of 22nd or better. I’m fine with Currey in all formats.

Other Value Options To Consider: I’m not going too in depth on these drivers, but I think they’re worth a sprinkle of exposure in GPP’s. Ryan Vargas finishes tenth here a year ago and he’s starting P30 at just $5,100 and he’s in JD Motorsports equipment, similar to Currey. He doesn’t need to do much to return value. Similarly, Kyle Weatherman is a little interesting based on his run here a year ago, but I don’t particularly trust his equipment to finish the race. But as an absolute punt if stacking more expensive drivers, Weatherman could simply hold his position and you’ll take it in DFS. Lastly, most people won’t play Jeremy Clements because of the starting spot, but he’s been solid on similar tracks this year. He finished 17th at Vegas-1, 12th at Atlanta-1, 10th at Charlotte, 14th at Texas-1, 8th at Atlanta-2… You get the idea. He’s the kind of driver that could simply hold his position and you’ll get him under 15% ownership. I think he’s fine in GPP’s.

Core Drivers

Just to add some clarity, I don’t think there are mid-range “core drivers” this week. I don’t trust any of them enough to consider them locks, but Moffitt and Herbst are probably my two favorites.