Top Tier
Denver Broncos – It’s no secret that I love targeting Denver’s defense for DFS. I was a little disappointed in their performance last week, I won’t lie. But this matchup shapes up to be a good one. First and foremost, Denver provides one of the best home field advantages given the noise and elevation of the stadium. Additionally, this will be the Raiders first game with interim head coach, Rich Bisaccia. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in pass protection and dead last in terms of run blocking according to Pro Football Focus. The over/under is at a modest 44 points and the Broncos are favored by four. I think we see a solid 2X-3X type game from Denver this weekend. My lone concern is the Raiders getting cheap offensive production late in the game but that also means Derek Carr would be throwing more, which presents us with sack and turnover opportunities.
Indianapolis Colts – After a brutal start to the season that included the Rams, Seahawks, and then three straight road games the Colts have been thrown a bone. It’s a short week, but the over/under is low at 43.5 points and the Colts are ten-point favorites. The Colts defense looked great in the first half against the Ravens, but they laid an egg in the second half. But this is a matchup we can exploit. The Patriots struggled last week against Davis Mills and this Texans offense. I’d say it’s more likely the Texans do not repeat what they did a week ago. I’m not fond of Indy’s secondary but I think at $3,500 on DraftKings, the Colts are very much in play to get pressure on Mills and force a turnover or two.
Mid-Tier
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are certainly a popular streamer this week against the Lions. I still don’t think the Bengals are very good on this side of the ball, but the matchup is enough to warrant exposure in DFS. I can’t personally commit to playing them since I’ll likely be playing light this weekend, but the matchup is good enough. The Bengals have surprisingly been getting decent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and we know the Lions offensive line is hurting at the moment after they lost Frank Ragnow to his stupid toe injury; his words, not mine. The Lions are averaging just 19.6 points per game (25th in the league) and 339.6 yards per game (24th in the league). Given the current status of the offensive line, this is a matchup worth exploiting.
Dallas Cowboys – Call it a gut feeling, but I like Dallas much more than the chalky Bengals this week and they’re $200 cheaper on DraftKings. I don’t quite understand why Vegas is projecting this to be such a high scoring affair. The Patriots are not great at winning the turnover battle. New England averages 1.8 giveaways per game, which has to make Bill Belichick’s skin crawl. The Patriots average 319.8 yards per game (26th in the league) and just 19.2 points per game (also 26th in the league). They’ve shown promise at times, but they can’t put it all together for a strong performance unless they’re playing the Jets. The Patriots offensive line is a little beat up and Shaq Mason has already been declared out for this game. Plus the Cowboys have at least two turnovers forced in every game so far. The Cowboys just make too much sense in DFS this week.
Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are coming off three straight home games so I’m hoping the trip to Charlotte doesn’t ruin the run they’ve been on. But they grade out as the sixth-best defense according to Pro Football Focus and they have the eighth-best pass rushing score as well. They’ve only forced four turnovers in five games, which isn’t really overwhelming. But they do have 17 sacks in five games and they’ve allowed a total of 48 points in their last three games. The Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey in Week 6 and they’re terrible in pass protection. This is a nice spot for the Vikings in Cash and GPP’s.
Value Tier
Arizona Cardinals – This isn’t a slam dunk by any means. I normally don’t have an issue paying down at D/ST, but I’m not all in on the Cardinals, but I’ll throw them into a GPP build or two. Chandler Jones will miss the game after he tested positive for COVID-19. But the Browns will be without Nick Chubb in Week 6 and while they’ll probably lean heavily on Kareem Hunt, he’s questionable with a wrist and knee injury. He will probably play, but it’s worth monitoring. The Cardinals can return DFS value in a variety of ways whether it’s pressure on the quarterback or forcing turnovers. We can’t favor them as much as we normally do, but they’re still worth consideration.
Baltimore Ravens – This is strictly a GPP play. Normally I’m not afraid to dip this low for a cheap Cash play and if you feel okay with this play, by all means go for it. However, this game opened at 48 points and has been bet up to 51.5 so Vegas and the public are expecting a lot of scoring and rightfully so. These two teams run an abundance of plays per game and more play calling tends to lead to more scoring. But if you buy the narrative of West coast teams travelling East, then you could consider the Ravens as a cheaper play. This will feel like a 10:00am local game for the Bolts and they are slight underdogs. Additionally, I mention this at least once every week, but this is a DFS position of high variance. All it takes is a defensive or special teams touchdown for a team to really pay off. If the Ravens run into an unprepared or tired team and can force turnovers then there’s potential here. This is probably the worst Baltimore defense we’ve seen in recent memory but they’ve only allowed 49 points in their last three games and they’ve collected nine sacks and the pressure has been better. But the Chargers are a whole different animal so I would limit exposure to GPP’s.
Fade
New England Patriots – The Pats defense doesn’t look bad if you’re actually watching them. The most points they’ve allowed in a game were 22 points (on two different occasions), which isn’t awful. They certainly haven’t been torched either. However, for DFS scoring, they just haven’t been worth the rub lately. In four of five games this season they’ve retuned five or fewer points on DraftKings, with their best performance coming against the Jets in Week 2. Now they have to host the Dallas Cowboys. And the Cowboys aren’t without their own flaws either. They’re throwing less and haven’t looked as explosive because they’ve successfully run the ball pretty well between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Patriots can certainly slow this game down and play to the level of their opponent and the $3K price tag on DraftKings isn’t awful. But while the Cowboys haven’t looked the same, that doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of posting points either. Vegas is projecting this as a potential shootout.